Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook January 16-20

Published

7 years ago

January 15, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook January 16-20

The US dollar declined against most of its counterparts last week, after president-elect insisted that companies importing into the U.S. must pay border tax, except they move their jobs to the U.S. Even though the retail sales surged 0.6 percent in December and the Federal Reserve Chair, Yellen Janet was certain the economy faces no serious short-term obstacles. The uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration is hurting the attractiveness of the US dollar.

But with the producer price index increasing 0.3 percent in December, and Trump expected to implement his aggressive fiscal spending, the Fed is likely to follow up with a similar monetary policy by hiking rates at least three times in 2017 to manage inflation. This is projected to renew the attractiveness of the US dollar and boost its exchange rate against its counterparts.

Nevertheless, investors are waiting for Yellen Janet speech due on Thursday for clues on monetary stance after consumer prices data scheduled for Wednesday has been released.

In the UK, industrial production rose 2.1 percent, after data showed consumer spending and services sector continued to support the economy. But the pound sterling plunged against most currencies yet again, as low business confidence about the future of the embattled economy impacts the attractiveness of the currency.

While, the market awaits inflation rate and Prime Minister May speech due on Tuesday for possible clues on monetary policy and Brexit direction, experts have said the Minister will signal “hard Brexit” by focusing more on regaining control of the Britain’s borders and laws as against the widely expected access to the European single market.

This, coupled with key economic data due this week could trigger volatility across the Pound pairs – especially the retail sales, Governor Mark Carney speech, earnings and unemployment rate.

Global Oil, the OPEC members for the first time shown commitment to their pledge, and their readiness to cut production further if the need be, but experts have said sustained price above $55 a barrel will spur more production and dampen current progress, as exempted countries are likely to go aggressive with production and exports. This was after data showed the U.S. output rose by 176,000 barrels a day last week and that the production forecast for the year has been raised also.

However, the surge in oil prices will support the growth of emerging economies and help reduce the foreign exchange gap likely to be created if the US Federal Reserve starts tightening monetary policy to manage consumer prices.

Overall, the financial markets look vague ahead of the new US administration and Brexit, but the US economy is strong and likely to remain so. This week, GBPJPY, USDJPY and last week pick top my list.

GBPJPY

The uncertainty created by the Brexit and prime minister May’s comments continued to hurt the Pound sterling. Even after peaking at 148 price levels 5 weeks ago, the pair has lost about 951 pips to trade below 142.42 support (now resistance) levels.

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This week, as the world look to welcome Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America, there is likely to be an increase in demands for safe haven currencies as seen last week. Hence, I will be looking to sell below 140.92 resistance for 134.90 as my first target. A sustained break of that level should open up 129.85 support (second target).

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USDJPY

For similar reasons, this pair called the top after gaining about 1,384 pips since the emergence of Trump as the president of the U.S. But the pair lost about 250 pips following Trump’s first public conference last week to close at 114.43 support level. This, I will be treating as a risk concern ahead of the new administration’s inauguration. Therefore, I will be expecting the demand for the yen as a safe haven asset to increase while investors await a series of change the president-elect will be passing on to the senate and the ones likely to be approved.

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This week, I will be looking to sell this pair below 114.43 price level for 111.81 targets, a sustained break could open up 109.56 support.

Last Week Recap

NZDCAD

This pair is actually unique for the simple fact that the New Zealand dollar gained its last week attractiveness from the increase in demand for safe haven assets and positive outlook of commodity dependent economies. Even though, when data showed its largest trading partner, China, is struggling with capital outflow and the needs to strengthen its overseas alliances to negate Trump’s likely sabotage of their trade relationship, the kiwi continued to gain.

On the other hand, the Canadian currency continued to enjoy strong economic data, increased exports, and moderate manufacturing activities, bolstered by the surge in global oil prices and proposed economic plan by the US president-elect to increase productivity in the US, its largest trading partner.

This week, I remained bearish on this pair as long as 0.9382 resistance holds.

EURCAD

Nothing has changed with EURCAD, last week view holds.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

Published

3 days ago

April 26, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

4 days ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

5 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.