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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Raised its Forecasts For The Euro

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecasts for the euro after its call that the European Central Bank would send the shared currency tumbling as much as 3 percent with dovish easing policies crumbled last week.

The euro instead climbed more than 3 percent in the wake of the ECB’s Dec. 3 meeting, after President Mario Draghi’s package of measures underwhelmed some investors. The decision marked a shift in the central bank’s behavior for Goldman’s chief currency strategist Robin Brooks, who says he is losing faith that officials are “wholeheartedly” pursing reflationary policies.

Brooks forecasts the euro will weaken to $1.07, $1.05 and $1.00 in three, six and 12 months respectively. This compares to previous forecasts of $1.02, $1 and 95 cents. At end of 2017 the euro will be at 90 cents versus a previous forecast of 80 cents, he said.

“Although we are reluctant to do this, given our view of euro-zone fundamentals (a large output gap and low underlying inflation), we have to acknowledge the apparent disagreement on the Governing Council over the need for additional easing,” Brooks wrote in a note to clients. “There is no doubt in our minds that euro down will again become a theme over time, but regrettably that time is not now.”

The euro weakened 0.7 percent to $1.0810 as of 10:40 a.m. London time, extending a decline from Friday. On the day of the ECB meeting it jumped 3.1 percent, the biggest advance since 2009.

Goldman also raised forecasts for the euro against the pound and Swiss franc, to reflect new expectations that declines will be smaller. In six months the euro will be at 70 pence, compared with a previous forecast of 67 pence.

The ECB’s easing measures, which included a cut to the deposit rate and a six-month extension to the bond-buying program, didn’t meet expectations for aggressive stimulus, which were stoked by Draghi on Nov. 20 when he said policy makers “will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible.” This sense of urgency was missing, Brooks said.

Bloomberg

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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