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Kenya’s Shilling Hits Record Lows Despite $900 Million Pledges, Analysts Predict Further Weakness

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New funding pledges of nearly $900 million ahead of a Eurobond repayment deadline are failing to defend Kenya’s shilling from fresh lows, with analysts forecasting further weakness as the rising cost of imports heightens demand for dollars.

Africa’s second-worst performing currency for 2024 fell to a record 162.29 against the dollar on Monday, extending losses since the start of 2023 to more than 23%.

The worst-case scenario among five analysts and traders polled by Bloomberg is for the shilling to depreciate to as low as 210 against the US currency by the end of the year, with the mildest forecast at 171.

Further weakness will result in additional increases in the cost of imports and prices of items that include foreign-currency adjustments, such as electricity. Debt-service costs will also rise as the government races to raise funding against a June-deadline for the $2 billion eurobond.

“The government will have to chip in more in terms of repaying that loan,” said Timothy Kiarie, a Nairobi-based financial analyst at foreign-exchange broker Scope Markets. “Given that fundamentals haven’t changed much and that the Central Bank of Kenya is still struggling with dollar reserves, a widespread panic could accelerate the loss on the Kenya shilling.”

The shilling traded 0.2% lower at 162.27 against the dollar at 1:50 p.m. in Nairobi, extending losses for the year to 3.4%. Yields on Kenya’s 2024 Eurobond fell 96 basis points to 13.40%.

Kiarie forecasts that the shilling will weaken to 210 against the dollar by year-end. Rufas Kamau, market analyst at foreign-exchange trading platform FXPesa, sees a level of 200 over the same period while Charles Robertson, head of macro-strategy at Dubai-based Frontier Investment Management Partners Ltd. expects a milder depreciation to 171.

Two other economists, Churchill Ogutu at IC Asset Managers and Nairobi-based Reginald Kadzutu, are expecting a level of as low as 180 against the dollar.

While a weaker shilling will have little benefit for exports, with low elasticity in demand for major items such as tea, more expensive imports in the form of oil will fuel domestic inflation and weigh further on the currency, Kadzutu said.

IMF Support

Still, currency weakness doesn’t only signal bad news as the current flexible exchange-rate policy carries the support of the International Monetary Fund, Robertson said. The Washington-based lender agreed last week to immediately disburse to $684.7 million to Kenya as part of a broader support program, with the country raising an additional $210 million from pan-African lender Trade & Development Bank.

“The weaker shilling is a signal that Kenya’s authorities recognize the need to stay onside with external creditors,” Robertson said. “The 2024 Eurobond will be repaid, the cheaper currency should improve the current-account and the central bank is committed to keeping inflation under control with suitably high interest rates.”

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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