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Moody’s Downgrades Kenya to Caa1 Following Abandonment of Tax Increases

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Kenya’s credit rating has been downgraded to Caa1 by Moody’s Investors Service,  a deeper descent into junk status for the East African nation.

The downgrade comes in the wake of deadly protests that forced the Kenyan government to abandon plans for new tax hikes aimed at raising over $2 billion.

Moody’s cited significantly reduced capacity for revenue-based fiscal consolidation as the primary reason for the downgrade.

The credit assessor’s latest report reflects a pessimistic view of Kenya’s ability to improve debt affordability and place its debt on a sustainable downward trajectory.

“The downgrade of Kenya’s rating reflects significantly diminished capacity to implement revenue-based fiscal consolidation that would improve debt affordability and place debt on a downward trend,” Moody’s said in a statement.

The decision by President William Ruto to withdraw the tax hike plan followed widespread anti-government demonstrations.

The protests, which resulted in the deaths of at least 41 people, were triggered by rising food prices and a youth unemployment rate that the Federation of Kenya Employers estimates to be as high as 67%.

The proposed tax increases were initially intended to bolster state finances and secure additional funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the social backlash forced the government to reconsider its approach.

Instead of raising taxes, Kenya’s National Treasury has announced plans to slash expenditure by 177 billion shillings and increase borrowing to cover the shortfall.

“The government had planned to introduce new taxes to help raise an additional 346 billion shillings ($2.7 billion) in the fiscal year that began on July 1. Instead, the Treasury will reduce expenditure by 177 billion shillings and borrow the balance,” the National Treasury stated.

Moody’s maintained a negative outlook on Kenya’s debt, highlighting ongoing risks related to government liquidity.

The credit rating agency also expressed concerns about the country’s fiscal deficit, which is now expected to narrow at a slower pace than previously anticipated due to the reliance on spending cuts rather than revenue generation.

“As a result, we now expect the fiscal deficit to narrow more slowly, with Kenya’s debt affordability remaining weaker for longer,” Moody’s said.

The downgrade is a significant blow to Kenya, which has been struggling to balance fiscal reforms with social stability.

The country’s economic challenges are compounded by declining output from aging oil fields and frequent disruptions in gas transportation due to pipeline vandalism.

In response to the downgrade, Kenya’s government reiterated its commitment to addressing the fiscal challenges.

Ekperipe Ekpo, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, said there is an ongoing effort to resolve the crisis in gas feedstock supplies and enhance the nation’s energy security.

“I am impressed with what I have seen here today. We are moving towards zero emission and we need to do everything to supply gas to Nigerians,” Ekpo stated.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

FG to Hike VAT on Luxury Goods by 15%, Exempts Essentials for Vulnerable Nigerians

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Value added tax - Investors King

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has announced plans by the Federal Government to raise the Value Added Tax (VAT) on luxury goods by 15% despite the ongoing economic challenges.

Minister Edun made this known in Washington DC, during a meeting with investors as part of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank Annual Forum.

While essential goods consumed by poor and vulnerable Nigerians will not be affected by the increase, Edun, however, the increase in VAT will affect luxury items.

He said, “In terms of VAT, President Bola Tinubu’s commitment is that while implementing difficult and wide-range but necessary reforms, the poorest and most vulnerable will be protected.

The minister also revealed that the bill is currently under review by the National Assembly and in due time, the government will release a list of essential goods exempted from VAT to provide clarity to the public.

“So, the Bills going through the National Assembly in terms of VAT will raise VAT for the wealthy on luxury goods, while at the same time exempting or applying a zero rate to essentials that the poor and average citizens purchase,” Edun explained.

Earlier in October, Investors King reported that the FG had removed VAT on diesel and cooking gas, among others to enhance economic productivity and ease the harsh reality of the current economy.

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Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Approaching 100%, Rising Above Pandemic Peak

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The IMF sees countries debt growing above 100% of global GDP, Vitor Gaspar, head of the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department said ahead of the launch of the Fiscal Monitor (FM) Wednesday (October 23) in Washington, DC.

“Deficits are high and global public debt is very high and rising. If it continues at the current pace, the global debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100% by the end of the decade, rising above the pandemic peak,” said Gaspar about the main message from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report.

The Fiscal Monitor is highlighting new tools to help policymakers determining the risk of high levels of debt.

“Assessing and managing public debt risks is a major task for policymakers. The Fiscal Monitor makes a major contribution. The Debt at Risk Framework. It considers the distribution of outcomes around the most likely scenario. The analysis in the Fiscal Monitor shows that debt risks are substantially worse than they look from the baseline alone. The framework should help policymakers take preemptive action to avoid the most adverse outcomes.”

Gaspar said that there’s a careful balance between keeping debt lower, versus necessary spending on people, infrastructure and social priorities.

“The Fiscal Monitor identifies three main drivers of debt risks. First, spending pressures from long term underlying trends, but also challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. Second, optimistic bias in debt projections. And third, increasing uncertainty associated with economic, financial and political developments.

Spending pressures from long term underlying trends and from challenging politics at national, continental and global levels. The key is for countries to get started on getting debt under control and to keep at it. Waiting is risky. The longer you wait, the greater the risk the debt becomes unsustainable. At the same time, countries that can afford it should avoid cutting too much, too fast. That would hurt growth and jobs. That is why in many cases we recommend an enduring but gradual fiscal adjustment.”

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IMF Attributes Nigeria’s Economic Downgrade to Inflation, Flooding, and Oil Woes

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IMF - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has blamed the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters despite inflation and the weakening of the local currency, however, this could only translate to 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.

“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98% and 3.19% respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.

“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate,” the report seen by Investors King shows.

The spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.

“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.

“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.

It also expects to see some changes in Nigeria’s inflation, which has slowed down in July and August before rising to 32.7 percent in September 2024.

“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.

“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.

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