According to Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO), total public debt increased by 75% q/q or N38.5trn to N87.4trn at end-June ’23. On a y/y basis, public debt increased by 104%. As at end-June ’23, public debt was equivalent to 43.7% of 2022 nominal GDP. This is above the DMOs debt-to-GDP ratio target of 40% within 2020-2023.
However, still below the limit of 55% set by the World Bank for countries within Nigeria’s peer group. We note that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low when compared with other African emerging economies such as Ghana (88.8%), Egypt (87.2%), South Africa (67.4%), Kenya (67.3%).
The rise in the public debt stock can be largely attributed to the recent inclusion of the securitized N22.7trn CBN ways and means advances to the FGN. The fx depreciation triggered by the fx liberalization policy also contributed to the surge in the total public debt stock. To put this in perspective, at end-June ’22 the fx rate closed at N425.1 per USD (NAFEX) vs N769 per USD at end-June ’23.
As for total domestic debt, we noticed a 68% q/q increase to N54trn at end-June ’23. There were q/q increases recorded across FGN bonds (127.7% q/q), FGN Savings bond (10.4% q/q) and promissory notes (3.7% q/q). The DMO had set out to raise a maximum of N3.6trn at end-Q3 ’23 through FGN bonds. However, YTD, it has raised N4.3trn (exceeding its borrowing target by 19.4%). The FY 2023 domestic borrowing target of N7.04trn will likely be exceeded.
The domestic debt for states and the FCT increased by 7.4% q/q to N5.8trn at end-June ’23 from N5.4trn recorded at end-March ’23. On a y/y basis, it grew by 20.8%. The most indebted states include Lagos (N996.4bn), Delta (N465.4bn), Ogun (N293.2bn), Rivers (N225.5bn) and Imo (N220.8bn).
Meanwhile, the external debt stock increased marginally by 1.4% q/q to USD43.2bn at endJune ’23 compared with USD42.6bn recorded at end-March ’23. Multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, IMF, AFDB, as well as bilateral lenders like China, Japan, India, and France collectively accounted for 60.9% of the external debt stock while commercial loans (Eurobonds and Diaspora bonds), promissory notes and syndicated loans accounted for 39.1% Turning to debt servicing, we note that as at end-June ’23, the FGN has spent N2.34trn on debt servicing (N1.44trn on domestic and N900bn on external).
Based on latest data in the public domain (i.e., as at end-March ’23), the debt-service-to-revenue ratio stood at 83%. We expect debt service costs to remain elevated (in nominal terms) due to the impact of the fx liberalization policy and additional borrowing on the back of the FGN budget deficit.
In a separate report by the DMO, the debt-service-to-revenue ratio for 2023 was pegged at 75%, reflecting the urgent need to improve government revenue. According to the DMO, to achieve a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio, the FGN needs to increase its revenue base from the projected N10.5trn for FY 2023 to c.N15.5trn.
The constraints around government revenue growth have led to overreliance on borrowing to finance the FGN budget. There are deliberate efforts towards strengthening the fiscal landscape. The current administration has set up a Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee. We expect the committee’s efforts to assist with ensuring a minimum tax-to-GDP ratio of 18% by 2026, expand the tax net, and eliminate the tax gaps. Based on industry sources, it is estimated that Nigeria loses c.N20trn annually on the back of incidences of tax evasion.
Nigeria’s Natural Gas Production Declines Despite N250bn Intervention Fund
Despite the injection of a N250 billion intervention fund into the gas sector, Nigeria witnessed a downturn in natural gas production last year, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the financial stimulus.
The Energy Institute, in collaboration with KPMG, unveiled an industry report revealing a notable drop of 4 billion cubic feet meters in Nigeria’s natural gas production between 2021 and 2022.
While Nigeria’s gas production demonstrated consistent growth from 39 billion cubic feet meters in 2012 to 49 billion cubic feet meters in 2020, the trajectory abruptly shifted to a decline, reaching 45 billion cubic meters in 2021 and further slipping to 40 billion cubic meters last year.
The Federal Government’s intervention included a N250 billion fund, facilitated through the Central Bank of Nigeria, with N130 billion earmarked for 15 selected companies for the construction of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) conversion centers.
This initiative, part of the National Gas Expansion Program (NGEP), aimed to promote CNG as the preferred fuel for transportation and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for domestic cooking, captive power, and small industrial complexes.
The 15 recipient companies, including prominent names like Dangote Oil Refinery, Nipco Gas Ltd, and Greenville Liquefied Natural Gas Company, received a combined N130 billion.
However, despite this financial injection, the natural gas production figures tell a different story.
Chinedu Okoronkwo, President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, expressed dissatisfaction with the exclusion of his members from the loan, stating that inclusion would have accelerated the conversion of over one million vehicles to CNG models.
The Senate Committee on Gas, chaired by Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe, has summoned the 15 companies to provide progress reports on the projects funded by the intervention.
As Nigeria aims for substantial investment in the gas value chain, these revelations raise questions about the efficacy and impact of financial interventions in the country’s critical sectors.
Experts Urge Swift Government Action on Nigeria’s Untapped N3 Trillion Logistics Sector
Experts at the Courier and Logistics Management Institute conference in Lagos have emphasized the critical importance of the overlooked logistics, courier, and transport sector in Nigeria, valued at over N3 trillion.
During the event themed “Logistics Solutions and National Infrastructure Development,” the CLMI Executive Chairman, Prof. Simon Emeje, highlighted the urgent need for the federal government to prioritize this sector, which remains relatively untapped on a global scale.
Emeje underscored the sector’s significance, stating, “Any country that does not pay attention to logistics, courier, and the transport sector cannot survive.
The government must not ignore this sector because it is the bedrock of any economy.”
The logistics, courier, transport, and management industry boasts an average asset worth over N3 trillion, offering substantial potential for job creation.
Emeje emphasized that commerce is crippled without effective logistics, illustrating the importance of the sector in facilitating trade, enhancing the supply chain, creating jobs, and propelling economic growth.
Despite its undeniable importance, the Nigerian logistics sector faces hindrances such as infrastructural deficits and weak government policies, preventing it from reaching its full potential.
Emeje called for immediate attention to address these challenges and unlock the sector’s capacity to create millions of employment opportunities for Nigerian youth.
Former Minister of Communications, Barr. Adebayo Shittu, urged the institute to draft a comprehensive proposal for government adoption, offering assistance in facilitating engagement.
Both Shittu and Prof. Emeje called on the Federal Government to establish a dedicated ministry to foster an enabling environment for Courier and Logistics Management, drawing parallels to the recognition given to the entertainment industry.
President Tinubu Seeks Senate Approval for $8.6 Billion and €100 Million Borrowing Plan
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has formally requested the approval of the Nigerian Senate for a borrowing plan totaling $8.6 billion and €100 million.
The request was presented to the Senate through a letter read during the plenary by the Senate President, GodsWill Akpabio.
According to the letter, the proposed funds are integral to the federal government’s 2022-2024 external borrowing plan, previously sanctioned by the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Tinubu clarified that the projects earmarked for funding through this loan cut across diverse sectors, emphasizing their selection based on rigorous economic evaluations and their anticipated contributions to national development.
The letter highlighted, “The projects and programs in the borrowing plan were selected based on economic evaluations as well as the expected contribution to the socio-economic development of the country, including employment generation, and skills acquisition.”
The specified sectors earmarked for development include infrastructure, agriculture, health, water supply, roads, security, and employment generation, along with financial management reforms.
The borrowing plan’s comprehensive approach aims to address critical needs and propel the nation’s progress.
President Tinubu emphasized the urgency of the Senate’s approval, stating, “Given the nature of these facilities, and the need to return the country to normalcy, it has become necessary for the Senate to consider and approve the 2022-2024 external abridged borrowing plan to enable the government to deliver its responsibility to Nigerians.”
This appeal follows previous successful requests, including the National Assembly’s approval of an over $800 million loan for the National Social Safety Network Programme in August.
Also, the assembly greenlighted the 2022 Supplementary Appropriations Act of N819 million to provide palliatives to Nigerians, mitigating the impact of fuel subsidy removal.
As the deliberations unfold, the Senate’s decision on this substantial borrowing plan will play a pivotal role in shaping Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
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