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Pension Schemes Brace for Dramatic Inflation Increases

Almost six in ten (57%) pension fund managers are predicting further dramatic increases in inflation over the next 12 months



pension funds - Investors King

New research from Ortec Finance, the leading global provider of risk and return management solutions for pension funds and other institutions, reveals almost six in ten (57%) pension fund managers are predicting further dramatic increases in inflation over the next 12 months. A further quarter (26%) predict a slight increase over the next 12 months.

The international study with pension fund managers responsible for a collective $1.946 trillion assets under management reveals that they have already taken steps to protect their schemes against inflation by increasing allocations to specific asset classes. Over half (56%) have switched investments to commodities, inflation linked bonds (56%) and infrastructure (51%).

The action taken means almost all (98%) pension fund managers interviewed in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the Nordics believe their scheme is already well hedged against inflation with over half (54%) saying they are ‘very well hedged’ against this risk.

Pension fund managers say schemes are set to further change allocations in the year ahead to continue to help hedge against inflation. Over half (53%) plan to increase allocations to inflation linked bonds while nearly half (49%) will switch to commodities and 49% to real estate investment trusts (REITs) over the next 12 months.

The table below shows action taken by pension fund managers on asset allocation to hedge against inflation over the past 12 months and plans for the next 12 months.

Gold 29% 24%
Commodities 56% 49%
Equities 40% 43%
Inflation linked bonds 56% 53%
Infrastructure 51% 44%
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 45% 49%
Direct investment into real estate 20% 28%

Marnix Engels, Managing Director, Pension Strategy, Ortec Finance said “It’s impressive to see how confident pension fund managers are about the impact of inflation on pension schemes over the next year, particularly as so many predict that inflation will continue its dramatic rise.

“Many schemes have already reallocated to certain asset classes in order to help inflation-proof their portfolio, and more are looking to do so in the next 12 months, as they predict future turbulence and inflation rises in the next 12 months. By modelling and mapping ahead, schemes are able to weather the storm, and overcome any short-term risks while still achieving their long-term objectives.”

Ortec Finance models and maps the relevant uncertainties in order to help pension funds monitor their goals and decisions. It designs, builds, and delivers high-quality software models for asset-liability management, risk management, climate scenario modelling, portfolio construction, performance measurement and attribution, and financial planning.


Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq,, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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PFAs Posted Decent Growth – Coronation Economic Note



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According to the latest monthly report released by Nigeria’s Pension Commission (PENCOM), the assets under management (AUM) of the regulated pension industry increased by +26.2% y/y to N19.7trn.

Meanwhile on an m/m basis, the AUM decline marginally by -0.5%.

This marks the first decline since September ’22. Notably, FGN debt securities accounted for 62% of the total AUM in March ’24. Meanwhile, other asset classes such as private equities, real estate, and infrastructure funds, accounted for 0.4%, 1.4%, and 0.8% of total AUM, respectively.

Total FGN debt securities held by the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) increased by +19.7%
y/y but declined marginally by -1.4% m/m.

Specifically, we note that the FGN bond instruments held by the PFAs increased by +17.2% y/y to N11.5trn, but declined by -2.4% m/m, on the back of a 10-year tenure FGN bond maturity (N719.9bn). The FGN bonds account for 58% of the total AUM.

FGN bonds remain attractive due to its lower risk profile and elevated yields. It is worth noting that the average FGN bond yield increased by +219bps m/m as at end-March ‘24.

The PENCOM report shows that NTBs held by PFAs grew by +120% y/y and increased by +42.5% m/m to N407.6bn in March ’24. We note that the average NTB yield increased by +250bps m/m as at end-March’24.

This asset class accounted for just 2.1% of the total AUM in the same month.

Meanwhile, State government securities held by the PFAs increased by 64.1% y/y to N266.2bn in March ‘24.

It is worth highlighting that domestic equity holdings surged by 99.6% y/y and 8.7% m/m to N2.1trn in the same period, accounting for 10.6% of the total AUM in March ‘24 compared with 9.7% in February ’24. The NGX-all-share index (NGX-ASI) rose by +90.6% y/y and +4.6% during the same period.

Furthermore, YTD (28-March ’24) return on index rose by +18.1% to close at 39.8% from 33.7% in February ’24.

Recently, the market has shown a bearish trajectory as the NGX-ASI declined by -6.1% m/m as at end-April ‘24, partly, on the back of relatively weak corporate earnings amid inflationary conditions. Given expectations of higher yields in the fixed income market on the back of continuous tightening or a hold stance of the CBN at the next MPC meeting, PFAs are likely to reallocate a greater portion of pension assets to fixed income securities.

According to PENCOM, the total pension contributions since inception remitted to the Individual Retirement Savings Account (RSA) increased by +17.3% y/y to N9.9trn as at end-December ‘23 compared with N8.5trn recorded as at end-December ‘22. Remittance from the public sector accounts for 52%, while private sector accounts for 48% of the total pension contributions.

This can be partly attributed to improvement in the efforts to expand pension coverage.

Notably, PENCOM added a total number of 8,927 micro pension contributors in Q4 ’23 bringing the total number of registered MPCs in the Micro pension plan from inception to 114,382 as at end-December ’23 from 89,327 as at end-December ’22.

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Nigeria’s Pension Fund Value Plummets by 29% to $14.39bn Amid Naira Depreciation



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Nigeria’s pension fund value has declined by 29% to $14.39 billion in January 2024.

This drop attributed primarily to the ongoing depreciation of the naira against the dollar represents a contrast from the $20.41 billion recorded in December 2023.

The latest unaudited report on the pension funds industry portfolio revealed that the conversion rate of the naira to the dollar played a pivotal role in this decline.

In January, the naira was converted at a rate of N1,356.88/$, a significant deviation from the N899.39/$ rate observed in December.

This depreciation trend in the naira has been persistent since June 2023, following adjustments made by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The continued weakening of the national currency in 2024 further exacerbated the erosion of the pension fund’s value when measured in dollar terms.

While the dollar value of the pension fund experienced a substantial downturn, in naira terms, the total assets under the Contributory Pension Scheme witnessed an increase to N19.53 trillion from N18.36 trillion at the end of 2023.

A significant portion of these assets, estimated at N12.14 trillion, was invested in Federal Government securities, reflecting a strategy to navigate the challenging economic landscape.

Amidst concerns over the impact of naira depreciation on pension funds, stakeholders have emphasized the need for prudent financial management and diversification of investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations.

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Pension Fund Administrators Channel N130 Billion into Infrastructure Investments



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Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) have strategically invested N130.18 billion from the Contributory Pension Scheme into infrastructure projects by the end of September 2023.

The data from the National Pension Commission reveals the commitment of PFAs to diversifying their investment portfolio while maintaining compliance with the Pension Reform Act of 2014.

As of the reporting period, the total assets under the Contributory Pension Scheme amounted to N17.35 trillion.

In addition to infrastructure investments, PFAs directed funds into various avenues, including domestic and foreign ordinary shares, federal and state governments’ securities, and money market instruments.

The investment strategy aligns with the amended investment regulation introduced by the commission.

The regulation outlines stringent requirements to ensure prudent and compliant investment practices in line with the provisions of the Pension Reform Act.

It emphasizes that pension fund custodians should adhere to written instructions from licensed PFAs regarding the investment and management of pension fund assets.

The regulation also sets guidelines for allowable investments outside Nigeria, and PFAs are cautioned against contracting out the custody of pension fund assets to third parties without prior approval.

This strategic approach not only upholds regulatory standards but also serves the long-term interests of contributors, ensuring a balanced and diversified investment portfolio.

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