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African Stock Exchanges’ Potential to Support Region’s Economic Development Mapped Out in New Focus Report

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A new focus report, produced by Oxford Business Group (OBG) with the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA), explores efforts under way to integrate the region’s stock markets, which is gathering pace on the back of growing awareness among key players of the need to build resilience and diversify the investor base.

Titled “African Stock Exchanges”, the wide-ranging study provides detailed analysis of the trends, opportunities and challenges evident across the continent’s financial sector, and its capital markets in particular, in an easy-to-navigate and accessible format, supported by key data and infographics.

The focus report shines a spotlight on the African Exchanges Linkages Project (AELP), which aims to connect stock exchanges regionally and foster both investment and trade, following a pilot phase that involves seven leading exchanges.

The AELP is a joint initiative of ASEA and the African Development Bank, funded by the Korea-Africa Economic Cooperation (KOAFEC) Trust Fund, one of the Bank’s bilateral funds. The project is expected to increase the depth and liquidity of the region’s capital markets, while benefiting from anticipated heightened trade activity under the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement.

The report also tracks the technological advances that have been made across the continent’s larger exchanges and are now being replicated in key smaller markets. The benefits digital solutions offer, which include facilitating the delivery of a larger range of products and services quicker and at a lower cost, are a key focus.

In addition, the report considers the impact on African exchanges of rising demand for more sustainable investment products, analysing moves under way at some of the region’s larger markets, in particular, to sharpen the focus on environmental, social and governance reporting.

Other topical issues looked at include the steps being taken by governments across the continent to improve the regulatory environment, which will be key in positioning exchanges to play a major part in supporting the region’s economic development.

The study also examines the challenges that several of the regional exchanges face in their expansion efforts, which range from limited liquidity and comparatively few listings to minimal participation from retail investors.

The report features 16 case studies, which chart the development of key exchanges across the continent, alongside contributions from a broad range of business leaders.

It also contains a wide-ranging foreword by Félix Edoh Kossi Amenounve, ASEA President,as well as CEO of Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM), in which he discusses the steps needed to increase the part played by the region’s capital markets in Africa’s economic transformation.

“For the most part, African stock exchanges remain modest in size and liquidity, and therefore their contribution to economic development continues to be marginal,” he said. “There is a need to encourage enthusiasm in African securities and address the lack of depth in the market to support major operations; we must supply stock exchanges with more listed companies and boost demand for securities by developing institutional savings mechanisms and mobilising citizens’ savings through concerted efforts at enhancing financial literacy.”

Commenting after the launch, Karine Loehman, OBG’s Managing Director for Africa, said that while exchanges had felt the weight of the pandemic, a recovery was now taking shape, buoyed by advancements in their operating models and an awareness amongst investors of the region’s potential.

“Near-term challenges remain an issue, in part due to the economic situation of individual markets and the impact of external headwinds,” Loehman said. “However, there is a growing realisation among governments, regulators and the international business community of the potential that stock exchanges offer African countries to unlock capital and galvanise intra-regional growth at a time when the continent is poised for a period of major development.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Bonds

A Challenging Bond Auction for the DMO – Coronation Merchant Bank

The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN bonds yesterday. It offered N225bn but raised N200.9bn (USD466.5m) through re-openings of the 2025, 2032 and 2042 FGN bonds.

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The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN bonds yesterday. It offered N225bn but raised N200.9bn (USD466.5m) through re-openings of the 2025, 2032 and 2042 FGN bonds.

The participation level was higher when compared to the auction held in July. However, total subscriptions remained lower when compared with the average of the first six months of 2022. The DMO secured a total bid of N247.1bn (USD574.6m) at the bond auction held yesterday.

The bids for the 3, 10 and 20-year benchmarks were allotted at the marginal rates of 12.5% (previously; 11.0%), 13.5% (previously; 13.0%) and 14.0% (previously; 13.7%) respectively.

The relatively low demand at the auction mirrors tight system liquidity. We note that market liquidity stood at a deficit of -N3.6bn on Friday (12 August ‘22). Overnight and repo rates closed within a range of 12 – 15%. The tightness in system liquidity can be partly attributed to CBN’s continuous use of the discretionary cash reserve ratio (CRR) debits.

We suspect that the negative real interest rates given the elevated inflation figure has contributed to investors’ apathy towards FGN bond yields. The latest inflation report released by the NBS shows July’s headline inflation increased by 104bps (when compared with the previous month) to 19.64% y/y. This is the highest reading since 2005.

Meanwhile, average yield in the secondary market for FGN bonds is 12.7% (as at 16 August ’22). The CBN’s in-house estimates suggest that inflation is likely to remain considerably high, partly due to the build-up of increased spending related to the 2023 general elections.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) believes that further tightening would help moderate worsening inflationary trend and narrow the real interest rate gap. The MPC/CBN raised the policy rate by 100bps from 13% to 14% in July ‘22. However, given the upward trend in inflation, expectations of another rate hike is not far-fetched.

The DMO had set out to raise a maximum of N1.9trn by end -Q3 ’22. However, year-todate, it has raised N2.1trn. exceeding its target by 12% or N220bn. Given that the debt management office is expected to offer instruments worth N221 – 240bn through reopenings of the 13.53% FGN MAR 2025, 12.50% FGN APR 2032 and 13.00% FGN JAN 2042 bonds in September, the DMO is likely to exceed its borrowing target for FGN bonds by end -Q3 ’22.

Allowing for the smaller amounts which the FGN raises from the sale of other debt instruments such as NTBs and savings bonds, DMO is on track pro rata to meet or exceed the domestic borrowing target for the year set at N3.53trn.

The FGN was unable to meet its revenue target for Jan – Apr 2022, it underperformed by 51%. FGN’s retained revenue stood at N1.63trn, compared to the prorate target of N3.32trn. Debt service (N1.94trn) accounted for 119% of the FGN’s revenue in April ‘22.

In the near term, we expect increased borrowing (via FGN bonds) to result in an uptick in yields across the curve. We see mid-curve FGN bond yields around 12.0 – 13.5% and yields at the longer-end of the curve between 13.25% – 14.25% over the next one month.

However, the level of system liquidity (impacted by items such as auctions, CRR debits/refunds, bond/NTB maturities, coupon payments and FAAC allocation) would also influence movement in yields.

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

Stock Market Extends Decline as Inflation Rises to 17-Year High in Nigeria

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) shed 0.07% on Monday after the NBS report showed inflation rose to a 17-year

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Nigerian Stock Exchange - Investors King

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) shed 0.07% on Monday after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report showed inflation rose to a 17-year in Africa’s largest economy in the month of July.

Nigeria’s inflation expanded by 19.64% in July, the highest since September 2005. The persistent increase in prices despite efforts by the central bank to rein in prices and deepen economic productivity forced many investors to start closing their open positions.

The market capitalisation of listed equities declined by another N19 billion to N26.769 trillion following a N571 billion decline recorded last week.

Similarly, NGX All-Share Index lost another 0.07% to close at 49,629.43 index points, this was in addition to 1,058.26 index points or 2.09% depreciation suffered last week.

Investors transacted 210,835,728 shares worth N2.188 billion in 4,122 transactions during the trading hours of Monday, representing a 71.90% decline from 750,285,275 shares that exchanged hands on Friday. E-Transact and financial services stocks were the most traded stocks on Monday as shown below.

A critical look into each sector showed the banking sector gained 15 basis points (bps) on a 4.65% appreciation in the values of Unity Bank, 2.12% gain in Zenith Bank and 0.33% improvement in Fidelity Bank. Jaiz Bank, UBA and Sterling Bank closed in the red.

The industrial index appreciated by 17bps. While consumer goods and oil and gas declined 33bps and 3bps, respectively.

The Exchange year to date declined further to 16.18%. See the details of top gainers and losers below.

Top Gainers

Symbols Last Close Current Change %Change
NEIMETH N 1.40 N 1.53 0.13 9.29 %
UNITYBNK N 0.43 N 0.45 0.02 4.65 %
FCMB N 3.35 N 3.49 0.14 4.18 %
ZENITHBANK N 21.25 N 21.70 0.45 2.12 %
TRANSCORP N 1.07 N 1.08 0.01 0.93 %

Top Losers 

Symbols Last Close Current Change %Change
PRESCO N 158.40 N 142.60 -15.80 -9.97 %
MULTIVERSE N 2.44 N 2.25 -0.19 -7.79 %
IKEJAHOTEL N 1.27 N 1.20 -0.07 -5.51 %
DANGSUGAR N 16.70 N 16.00 -0.70 -4.19 %
JAIZBANK N 0.91 N 0.88 -0.03 -3.30 %

Top Trade

Symbols Volume Value
ETRANZACT 52551673.00 119835326.82
FBNH 23082685.00 249782076.95
UBA 21896502.00 153480014.60
GTCO 15517148.00 315918097.65
TRANSCORP 12741555.00 13710597.18

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Stock Market

Stock Investors Lose N571 Billion Last Week

Investors traded 1.511 billion shares worth N13.547 billion in 20,074 deals last week

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Nigerian Exchange Limited - Investors King

Investors in the Nigerian stock market lost N571 billion last week as investors continue to close their positions amid growing economic uncertainty and high borrowing cost.

Investors traded 1.511 billion shares worth N13.547 billion in 20,074 deals last week, against a total of 705.636 million shares valued at N12.850 billion that exchanged hands in 22,124 deals in the previous week.

Analysing activity across key sectors, the Financial Services Industry led the activity chart with 680.202 million shares valued at N4.672 billion traded in 9,230 deals. Therefore, contributing 45.02% and 34.48% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

The Services Industry followed with 499.178 million shares worth N3.407 billion in 866 deals. In third place was
the ICT Industry, with a turnover of 113.804 million shares worth N2.246 billion in 2,083 deals.

Capital Hotel Plc, FBN Holdings Plc and Jaiz Bank Plc were the three most traded equities. Together, the three accounted for 763.836 million shares worth N5.130 billion that were traded in 1,025 deals and contributed 50.55% and 37.87% to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

The NGX All-Share Index depreciated by 1,058.26 index points or 2.09% to 49,664.07 index points from 50,722.33 index points it closed in the previous week.

Market capitalization depreciated by 2.09% or N571 billion to N26.787 trillion last week, down from N27.358 trillion it settled in the previous week.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower with the exception of  The NGX Insurance, NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Growth Indices which appreciated by 6.00%, 3.00% and 1.56% while, The NGX ASeM index closed flat.

Thirty-three equities appreciated in price during the week, lower than forty-one equities in the previous week. Twenty- six equities depreciated in price higher than Twenty-two in the previous week, while ninety-seven equities remained unchanged higher than ninety-three equities recorded in the previous week.

The Exchange year-to-date return declined to 16.26%. See the details of top gainers and losers below.

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