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Russia-Ukraine Crisis May Disrupt Resuscitation of Ajaokuta Steel Company

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Steel Manufacture At Evraz Plc West-Siberian Metallurgical Plant

The raging Russia-Ukraine crisis has been described as a threat to the resuscitation of the Ajaokuta Steel Company which is already at 98 percent completion.

Investors King gathered that the Ajaokuta Steel company located in Kogi State is the largest steel mill in Nigeria, its coke oven and byproducts plant are larger than all the refineries in Nigeria put together. However, it was abandoned after several years. 

In view of this, President Muhammadu Buhari signed an agreement with the Russian government on revamping the steel company. 

Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), in Lagos pointed out that Nigeria’s bilateral agreement with Russia may be stalled due to the sanctions against Russia.

Yusuf said the project was making great progress until the advent of the pandemic and while the world’s economy was recuperating, the Russia-Ukraine conflict set in.

He, however, added that global trade will be badly affected by the crisis as Russia owns major investments across the world and is a major player in the world’s economy.  

Yusuf noted that prices of iron and steel will rise in the global market as the two contending countries are major exporters.

“There are financial transactions involving Russian investors. There are issues of trade especially in the area of iron and steel for which both Ukraine and Russia are reputed. The iron and steel market are also going to be affected by this, we are therefore likely to see a spike in prices of iron and steel products globally,” he said.

The Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Mr. Olamilekan Adegbite, had earlier stated that the Ajaokuta steel mill project’s business case had been accepted and agreed upon by the Russian government.

Adegbite said President Buhari of Nigeria and President Vladimir Putin of Russia met and made a bilateral agreement on government-to-government cooperation to revitalise the Ajaokuta steel mill because the Russians built Ajoakuta when they were the Soviet Union in collaboration with the Ukrainians. 

“That is why we have gone back to them, the whole essence is for them to come here, access the plant and access the job to be done that is what we call a technical audit,” he said.

On the project funding, he said, “the Russian export centre, which is a Russian sort of Nexim bank, would provide $450million for the project and Afrexim bank will provide $1billion, which is a total of $1.45billion.”

The minister stated that after the audit of the project, the Russian technical experts will give the exact cost of the rehabilitation of Ajaokuta steel mill and the National Iron Ore Mining Company (NIOMCO)

He hinted that the two projects were linked together. The two are tied together and once this is done, there will be negotiations and at the end of the day, a sum will be agreed and the contract formed and that is the basis that we will proceed,” he said.

Other implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Nigeria’s economy were listed as rising in energy prices (diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene and gas), which would affect petrol import and increase subsidy bills. Also, fiscal operations of government and federal accounts will be hit.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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