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Markets Today – Risk-Aversion, Sanctions, PMIs, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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CHINA-STOCKS

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

 

Equity markets came under heavy pressure into the close in Europe on Tuesday, as the Ukraine invasion continued and the price of oil soared.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces is continuing to intensify despite talks yesterday between delegations from both sides on the border with Belarus. Further talks are expected to take place this week but that’s not slowing the assault on Kyiv, to the horror of most countries around the world.

The sanctions that have been announced so far will be devastating for the Russian economy and more are going to follow. Efforts to isolate Russia are being compounded by actions from Western firms looking to sever ties, under immense political pressure. Life is about to get much harder for Putin’s Russia.

PMIs overshadowed by events in the East

There’s been a wide array of PMI data from around the world today which, as you can imagine, hasn’t attracted the kind of attention it normally would. While much of the data looks quite promising, it doesn’t take into account recent events, and being revised data, was largely priced in already. Like much of the economic data this week, it was never likely to have any kind of significant impact on the markets, with the focus very much on what’s happening in Ukraine.

Oil soars as sanctions bite and the conflict intensifies

Oil prices are surging once more as the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the West continues to impose severe sanctions and companies turn their backs on what is becoming an increasingly isolated Russia. We’re starting to see what impact these sanctions could have on Russian oil exports and the challenges they pose and that’s driving the price higher.

The oil rally has seriously accelerated today, breezing past $100 and gathering momentum along the way. That’s despite the US once again leading discussions around a coordinated release of oil reserves of around 60-70 million barrels, which is clearly doing little to calm the nerves. We saw an underwhelmed reaction when this happened in November as well and that was before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Safe-haven gold continues to move higher

Gold is rallying once again in risk-averse trade as Russia’s assault on Ukraine intensifies. Sentiment in the markets has been deteriorating throughout the session and the price of gold is rising alongside that. It also comes as the price of oil has soared again today, adding to the inflationary pressures being experienced around the world.

The safe haven and inflation hedge appeal is driving plenty of support for the gold price and it’s now back above $1,930 and could have its sights set on $1,950 in the near-term. Beyond this, $2,000 suddenly looks very achievable again as nothing we’re seeing in Ukraine, or in negotiations at the border, give the impression that the end is in sight, sadly.

Bitcoin gathering bullish momentum

Bitcoin is continuing to perform well in the aftermath of the new sanctions on Russia, with the impression being that the imposition of them could lead to increased appeal of cryptocurrencies. Not to mention the reports we’ve seen recently of vast crypto donations to Ukraine to support their efforts. It would appear the link with risk assets has broken for now and bitcoin is following its own path. It’s broken $40,000 and $45,500 may not be too far away.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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