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Markets Today – Risk-Aversion, Sanctions, PMIs, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

 

Equity markets came under heavy pressure into the close in Europe on Tuesday, as the Ukraine invasion continued and the price of oil soared.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces is continuing to intensify despite talks yesterday between delegations from both sides on the border with Belarus. Further talks are expected to take place this week but that’s not slowing the assault on Kyiv, to the horror of most countries around the world.

The sanctions that have been announced so far will be devastating for the Russian economy and more are going to follow. Efforts to isolate Russia are being compounded by actions from Western firms looking to sever ties, under immense political pressure. Life is about to get much harder for Putin’s Russia.

PMIs overshadowed by events in the East

There’s been a wide array of PMI data from around the world today which, as you can imagine, hasn’t attracted the kind of attention it normally would. While much of the data looks quite promising, it doesn’t take into account recent events, and being revised data, was largely priced in already. Like much of the economic data this week, it was never likely to have any kind of significant impact on the markets, with the focus very much on what’s happening in Ukraine.

Oil soars as sanctions bite and the conflict intensifies

Oil prices are surging once more as the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the West continues to impose severe sanctions and companies turn their backs on what is becoming an increasingly isolated Russia. We’re starting to see what impact these sanctions could have on Russian oil exports and the challenges they pose and that’s driving the price higher.

The oil rally has seriously accelerated today, breezing past $100 and gathering momentum along the way. That’s despite the US once again leading discussions around a coordinated release of oil reserves of around 60-70 million barrels, which is clearly doing little to calm the nerves. We saw an underwhelmed reaction when this happened in November as well and that was before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Safe-haven gold continues to move higher

Gold is rallying once again in risk-averse trade as Russia’s assault on Ukraine intensifies. Sentiment in the markets has been deteriorating throughout the session and the price of gold is rising alongside that. It also comes as the price of oil has soared again today, adding to the inflationary pressures being experienced around the world.

The safe haven and inflation hedge appeal is driving plenty of support for the gold price and it’s now back above $1,930 and could have its sights set on $1,950 in the near-term. Beyond this, $2,000 suddenly looks very achievable again as nothing we’re seeing in Ukraine, or in negotiations at the border, give the impression that the end is in sight, sadly.

Bitcoin gathering bullish momentum

Bitcoin is continuing to perform well in the aftermath of the new sanctions on Russia, with the impression being that the imposition of them could lead to increased appeal of cryptocurrencies. Not to mention the reports we’ve seen recently of vast crypto donations to Ukraine to support their efforts. It would appear the link with risk assets has broken for now and bitcoin is following its own path. It’s broken $40,000 and $45,500 may not be too far away.

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Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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Sanwo-Olu Unveils Lagos Red Line Rail For Commercial Operations

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The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has officially unveiled the LMRT Red Line for commercial operations.

The governor said the Red Line is the second rail system to become operational in less than two years in the state.

The 27-kilometre Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado.

The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as the schedule is increased, providing a viable means of commuting.

In a post on his verified social media handles on Tuesday, Sanwo-Olu warned against vandalisation of the project, saying his government wouldn’t tolerate the destruction of public property.

Sanwo-Olu wrote, “Dear Lagosians, today marks the launch of commercial operations of the LMRT Red Line, commencing passenger services from Agbado to Oyingbo.

“We’re on a mission to keep Lagos moving, and the Red Line is a key part of our vision to create a seamlessly connected city. It is also our second rail system to become operational in less than two years.

“Spanning 27, the Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado. The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as we ramp up the schedule and provide a viable means of commuting.”

He added that daily passenger services will depart from Agbado at 6:00 AM, with the second train leaving Iju Station at 7:30 AM.

“Ensure you have your Cowry Card ready to board,” he noted.

He urged residents to treat the project with the respect it deserves, stressing that “vandalism or disruptions will not be tolerated.”

He said, “Together, we can ensure that our trains remain a safe and enjoyable experience for everyone.”

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