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Nigeria’s GDP Grows by 3.98 Percent in the Fourth Quarter of 2021

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Trade - Investors King

Economic fundamentals in Africa’s largest economy Nigeria improved in recent months, according to the latest reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2021, indicating sustained growth for the fifth quarter since the 2020 recession when pandemic grounded business activities.

The growth was 3.87 percent points higher than the 0.11 percent recorded in Q4 2020 and lower than 4.03 percent achieved in Q3 2021. Annually, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.40 percent in 2021.

On a quarterly basis, the real GDP expanded by 9.63 percent in the fourth of 2021 when compared to the third quarter of the same year.

In the fourth quarter, Nigeria’s aggregate GDP stood at N49,276,018.23 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N43,564,006.29 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.11 percent.

The nominal GDP growth rate in Q4 2021 was higher relative to 10.07 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 but lower compared to 15.41 percent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. 2021 annual nominal growth stood at 13.92 percent. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

Oil Sector

The nation in the fourth quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.06mbpd and lower than the third quarter 2021 production volume of 1.57mbpd by 0.07mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was –8.06% (year-on-year) in Q4 2021 indicating an increase by 11.71 percent points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Growth increased by 2.68 percent points when compared to Q3 2021 which was –10.73 percent.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -24.06 percent in Q4 2021. Annual growth stood at -8.30 percent, a rate better than the -8.89 percent recorded in 2020. The Oil sector contributed 5.19 percent to total real GDP in Q4 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87 percent and 7.49 percent, respectively. Nevertheless, the sector contributed 7.24 percent to real GDP in 2021.

Non-Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 4.73 percent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q4 2021). This rate was higher by 3.05 percent point compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2020 and 0.71 percent point lower than the third quarter of 2021. This sector was driven in the fourth quarter of 2021 mainly by Agriculture (crop production); trade; Information and Communication (Telecommunication); and Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), accounting for positive GDP growth.

In real terms, the NonOil sector contributed 94.81 percent to the nation’s GDP in fourth quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 which was 94.13 percent and higher than the third quarter of 2021 recorded as 92.51 percent. The annual contribution in 2021 was 92.76 percent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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