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Private Sector Activity Continues to Expand but Intense Cost Pressures Weigh on Growth – Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI

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Private employers

Nigeria’s private sector concluded the third quarter of 2021 with a modest expansion in business conditions. Quicker uplifts were seen in new orders, employment and stocks of purchases, but output growth moderated for the second month running. Nevertheless, optimism improved to a seven-month high. Material scarcity and unfavourable exchange rate movements exerted upward pressures on costs, however, leading to a record rate of purchase price inflation.

Subsequently, this fed through to a steep rise in selling prices. The headline figure derived from the survey is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The headline PMI registered at 52.3 in September, little[1]changed from 52.2 in August, and indicative of a fifteenth consecutive monthly expansion.

Central to the improvement was a solid and accelerated rise in new orders, which panellists mostly linked to the securing of new clients. Contrary to the improvement in domestic sales, exports fell, and at the quickest rate since December amid persisting international COVID-19 restrictions. Nevertheless, to meet demand firms increased their output levels, but the pace of expansion was only modest, and much softer than the rate of new order growth.

Cash and material shortages reportedly hindered some firms’ ability to raise output. All four of the monitored sub-sectors recorded expansions, with manufacturers seeing the strongest uplift, followed by wholesale & retail, services and agriculture, respectively. Firms raised their buying activity sharply in September. Anecdotal evidence suggested efforts to mitigate against future supply and price shocks led to stockpiling.

As a result, stocks of purchases rose at the fastest rate since October 2020. Meanwhile, vendor performance benefitted from quieter road conditions and advance payments.

Furthermore, suppliers’ delivery times improved to the greatest extent since last December. Higher raw material and commodity costs as well as unfavourable naira-dollar exchange rate movements led to a substantial increase in input expenses. In fact, purchase costs rose at the quickest rate in nearly eight years of data collection. Firms were able to pass on part of the increase to clients however, with charge inflation the second-strongest in the series to date.

Finally, after moderating in August, sentiment improved to a seven-month high amid plans to increase marketing, open more stores and broaden product offerings.

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Economy

NLNG Boosts Cooking Gas Production to 1.5 Million Metric Tonnes Annually

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cooking gas cylinder

Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) has announced a significant milestone in its operations, boosting its annual production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), commonly known as cooking gas, to over 1.5 million metric tonnes.

This surge in production underscores NLNG’s commitment to meeting the rising demand for clean cooking energy in Nigeria.

The entirety of NLNG’s 1.5 million tonnes production is now being sold domestically within Nigeria.

Moreover, the company has initiated a landmark shift by starting to supply LPG in naira, moving away from the traditional practice of trading in United States dollars.

This move aligns with calls from stakeholders in the oil and power sectors advocating for naira transactions, especially amidst the challenges posed by currency fluctuations.

During a panel session at the 7th Nigeria International Energy Summit in Abuja, NLNG’s General Manager of Finance, Fatima Adanan, highlighted the company’s dedication to enhancing LPG penetration across the country.

Adanan emphasized NLNG’s vision to make Nigeria a better place by promoting the use of cleaner energy sources like gas.

While NLNG’s production surge is commendable, Adanan acknowledged that Nigeria’s LPG requirements surpass the current output, necessitating imports to bridge the gap.

However, NLNG remains committed to expanding its production capacity to meet the nation’s energy needs and drive increased adoption of LPG as a cleaner cooking fuel.

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Economy

CBN Raises Benchmark Interest Rate by 400 Basis Points to 22.75%

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Dr. Olayemi Michael Cardoso

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised the benchmark interest rate by 400 basis points to a record 22.75%.

The decision made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes amidst rising inflationary pressures and growing uncertainty in Africa’s largest economy.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 29.90% in January 2024, the highest in over two decades while the nation’s unemployment rate quickened to 5% in the third quarter of 2023. Suggesting that the rising costs have continued to drag on both new job creation and the existing ones.

This coupled with a series of policy adjustments implemented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has plunged economic productivity and eroded consumer spending as citizens grapple with high fuel prices, electricity tariffs, a record-high foreign exchange rate, and insecurities.

Therefore, it is surprising that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) led by the CBN will further increase borrowing costs by 400 basis points at a time when job creation is paramount.

While the economy reportedly grew by 3.46% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 on the back of robust performance of the services sector, this growth is yet to crystalise as businesses and citizens have taken to the street protest against the harsh economic situation.

Economic experts have started questioning the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) given its lack of correlation between the data and economic reality.

 

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Economy

President Tinubu Unveils Geometric Power Plant in Aba After 20-Year Wait

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Geometric Power Plant

After two decades of anticipation, President Bola Tinubu, through his representative Vice President Kashim Shettima, inaugurated the long-awaited Geometric Power Plant in Aba, a significant milestone in the city’s quest for reliable electricity supply.

The event, which also saw the commissioning of three rehabilitated roads by Abia State Governor Alex Otti, symbolizes the culmination of years of perseverance and determination to transform Aba’s power landscape.

Addressing the audience, Vice President Shettima hailed the project as a testament to the power of visionary leadership and unwavering commitment to progress.

He said the Geometric Power Plant exemplifies the transformative impact of strategic infrastructure investments on local communities.

Governor Otti echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing the importance of the power project in positioning Aba as a hub for national and international business ventures.

He commended the efforts of Geometric Power Limited while urging them to uphold transparency and avoid exploiting consumers.

The inauguration of the Geometric Power Plant comes amidst growing concerns over Nigeria’s power infrastructure and the need for sustainable solutions to address electricity shortages.

The project, with a capacity of 188MW, holds promise for significant improvements in power supply across Abia State, benefitting nine out of seventeen local government areas.

The Managing Director of Geometric Power Limited, Ben Caven, underscored the scale of investment involved, totaling $800 million.

He highlighted the comprehensive nature of the project, which includes the installation of new power substations and a 27km natural gas pipeline, signaling a comprehensive approach to enhancing Aba’s energy infrastructure.

In conclusion, the inauguration of the Geometric Power Plant represents a transformative moment for Aba, offering renewed hope for economic growth and prosperity powered by reliable electricity supply.

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