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Pfizer and Moderna Reaping Billions From COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Market

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COVID-19 Vaccine - Investors King

Drugmakers Pfizer Inc, BioNTech and Moderna Inc are expected to reap billions of dollars from COVID-19 booster shots in a market that could rival the $6 billion in annual sales for flu vaccines for years to come, analysts and healthcare investors say.

For several months, the companies have said they expect that fully inoculated people will need an extra dose of their vaccines to maintain protection over time and to fend off new coronavirus variants.

Now a growing list of governments, including Chile, Germany and Israel, have decided to offer booster doses to older citizens or people with weak immune systems in the face of the fast-spreading Delta variant.

Late on Thursday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized a booster dose of vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc for people with compromised immune systems.

Pfizer, along with its German partner BioNTech, and Moderna have together locked up over $60 billion in sales of the shots just in 2021 and 2022. The agreements include a supply of the initial two doses of their vaccines as well as billions of dollars in potential boosters for wealthy nations.

Going forward, analysts have forecast revenue of over $6.6 billion for the Pfizer/BioNTech shot and $7.6 billion for Moderna in 2023, mostly from booster sales. They eventually see the annual market settling at around $5 billion or higher, with additional drugmakers competing for those sales.

The vaccine makers say that evidence of waning antibody levels in vaccinated people after six months, as well as an increasing rate of breakthrough infections in countries hit by the Delta variant, support the need for booster shots.

Some early data suggests that the Moderna vaccine, which delivers a higher dose at the outset, maybe more durable than Pfizer’s shot, but more research is needed to determine whether that is influenced by the age or underlying health of the people vaccinated.

As a result, it is far from clear how many people will need boosters, and how often. The profit potential of booster shots may be limited by the number of competitors who enter the market. In addition, some scientists question whether there is enough evidence that boosters are needed, particularly for younger, healthy people. The World Health Organization has asked governments to hold off on booster shots until more people worldwide receive their initial doses.

“We don’t know what the market forces will be,” Moderna President Stephen Hoge said in an interview last week. “At some point, this will become a more traditional market – we’ll look at what are the populations at risk, what value are we creating, and what is the number of products that serve that value. That will ultimately impact price.”

Pfizer declined to comment on the story. During the company’s second-quarter earnings call, executives said they believe a third dose will be necessary 6 to 8 months after vaccination, and regularly afterward.

A MODEL IN FLU SHOTS

If regular COVID-19 boosters are needed among the general population, the market would most resemble the flu shot business, which distributes more than 600 million doses per year. Four competitors split the U.S. flu market, which is the most lucrative and accounts for around half the global revenue, according to Dave Ross, an executive at CSL’s flu vaccine unit Seqirus.

Flu vaccination rates in developed countries have settled at around 50 percent of the population, and COVID boosters would likely follow a similar pattern if approved widely, said Atlantic Equities analyst Steve Chesney.

Flu shots cost around $18 to $25 a dose, according to U.S. government data and competition has kept price increases in check, with producers raising prices 4 or 5 percent in 2021.

Pfizer and Moderna may have greater pricing power for their boosters, at least at the outset, until competitors arrive. Pfizer initially charged $19.50 per dose for its vaccine in the United States and 19.50 euros for the European Union but has already raised those prices by 24 percent and 25 percent, respectively, in subsequent supply deals.

AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson are both gathering additional data on boosters of their vaccines. Novavax, Curevac, and Sanofi could also potentially be used as boosters, though their vaccines have yet to receive any regulatory authorization.

“A lot of these firms aren’t even in the market yet. I think within a year’s time, all these companies will have booster strategies,” said Morningstar analyst Damien Conover, who covers Pfizer.

Mizuho Securities analyst Vamil Divan expects at least 5 players in the COVID-19 booster market within a few years.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty around how boosters would be rolled out in the United States. Still, it is possible or even likely that people will be boosted with different vaccines than they were originally vaccinated with. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is already testing mixed boosting, and other countries that have used so-called mix and match vaccination have not had problems with that strategy.

One factor that could curb prices is if the U.S. government continues paying for most or all of the shots administered in the country, rather than leave it in the hands of private health insurers. In that scenario, the government would still be negotiating prices directly with vaccine makers and could use its buying power to stave off price increases.

Bijan Salehizadeh, managing director at healthcare investment firm Navimed Capital, said the U.S. government is likely going to want to keep paying in order to keep vaccination rates high and prevent new COVID surges, particularly if a Democratic administration is still in power.

“It’s going to be paid for until the virus disappears or mutates to be less virulent,” Salehizadeh said.

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N1.3bn Fraud Allegation: Court Orders Arrest of Dana Air MD For Not Showing Up For Arraignment

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Mr. Hathiramani Ranesh

A Federal High Court in Abuja has ordered the arrest of the Managing Director of Dana Air, Mr. Hathiramani Ranesh for failing to appear in court for his arraignment in the alleged N1.3 billion fraud preferred against him by the Office of the Attorney-General of Federation (AGF).

The Federal Government had on October 10, 2024, asked the court to issue a bench warrant for the arrest of Dana Air after failing to honour invitation for his arraignment.

The AGF had filed a six-count charge against Ranesh and two others and marked Dana Group PLC and Dana Steel Ltd as the 2nd and 3rd defendants, respectively.

The prosecution argued that Ranesh and the two companies, along with others still at large, committed a felony between September and December 2018 at the DANA Steel Rolling Factory in Katsina.

They were accused of conspiring to remove, convert, and sell four units of industrial generators—three units Ht of 9,000 KVA and one unit of 1,000 KVA—valued at over N450 million. These assets were reportedly part of the Deed of Asset Debenture used as collateral for a bond, which remains valid.

The defendants and others at large were said to have conspired to fraudulently divert N864 million between April 7th and 8th, 2014, at House No. 116, Oshodi-Apapa Expressway, Isolo-Lagos.

This sum, reportedly part of the bond proceeds from Ecobank intended for revitalizing production at Dana Steel Rolling Factory in Katsina, was allegedly diverted for unauthorized purposes.

They were also accused of conspiring to transfer N60,300,000 to an Atlantic Shrimpers account (No: 0001633175) at Access Bank, fraudulently diverting funds earmarked as part of the Ecobank bond proceeds for resuming production at the Katsina factory.

The cumulative amount involved in the charge totals N1,374,300,000. Each offense is said to be contrary to and punishable under Section 516 of the Criminal Code Act, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004.

After Mojisola-Okeya Esho, counsel to the Federal Government, had requested for bench warrant to be issued against Ranesh, the defence lawyer, B. Ademola-Bello, disagreed with Esho, saying that they had filed a preliminary objection challenging the jurisdiction of the court to hear the matter and that the prosecution had already been served.

Delivering ruling on the application, Justice Obiora Egwuatu, agreed with Esho that Ranesh’s arrest was necessary due to his failure to appear in court despite being served with the charge and several proceedings having taken place.

Justice Egwuatu held that, according to Section 184 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA), 2015, the court has the authority to issue an arrest warrant against any defendant who fails to attend court sessions.

Egwuatu ordered that Ranesh must appear before the court on January 13, 2025, before any objections can be raised.

Consequently, he adjourned the matter till January 13, 2025, for hearing.

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Persistent Service Disruptions In Banks Paralyze Activities At Ports, Many Cargoes Trapped 

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Lekki Deep Seaport

Activities at the Apapa and Tin-Can Ports in Lagos State have been paralyzed as cargoes have remained uncleared following persistent disruption to some online services of some commercial banks in Nigeria.

It was gathered that the banks suffer network problems due to the upgrade of their electronic banking portals.

To this end, business moguls have been unable to pay the Customs duty necessary for the clearance of their cargoes at the ports.

A visit to the ports showed that many import units of containers have not been cleared because their clearance documents are still trapped in some banks due to ongoing network migration issues.

If the banking disruptions persist and cargoes continue to lie fallow at the ports, experts have said that prices of goods at Nigerian markets may soar.

Many persons who have been working at the ports have also been rendered jobless as activities at the ports remain in limbo.

Confirming the situation at the ports, the National President of the Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON), Mr. Frank Ogunojemite said many jobs are stuck because agents have been battling to settle payment part of their clearance schedules.

Ogunojemite revealed that the clearance of cargoes at the ports usually goes through Form M and the Pre Arrival Assessment Report (PAAR), said agents have to go through a commercial bank to pay their Customs duty before any clearance process can be done.

He said if the banking system or network is down, it will be impossible for Customs duty to be paid and that container will remain in the port accumulating rent which comes with storage and demurrage payments.

According to him, prices of goods may soar if the situation persists as cargo owners spend more for clearance if their containers spend longer time in the ports.

Preferring solutions, he called on government to introduce ‘compensatory law’ where importers are given waivers when delays to their cargoes inside the ports is not from them.

Also, haulage operators bemoaned the effect of the various banking migrations on picking of containers inside the ports.Persistent Service Disruptions In Banks Paralyze Activities At Ports, Many Cargoes Trapped

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Nigerian Businesses Face Tougher Times as PMI Drops to 19 Months Low of 46.9

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Business metrics - investors king

Nigerian businesses continued to face headwinds as the Purchasing Managers Index published by Stanbic IBTC shows a 19-month low. 

According to the report released on Friday, business conditions took a hit and PMI dipped from 49.8 points in September to 46.9 points, the steepest decline since March 2023.

For context, a PMI reading above 50 points indicates growth in business activity. Conversely, a reading below 50 points indicates contraction, suggesting deterioration consequent to an economic downturn.

According to the report, businesses faced pressures from the local currency weakening, higher fuel prices and increasing cost of transportation.

This has also forced the hands of businesses to increase prices to sustain operations, which the report stated has led to a reduction in new orders and business activity.

Most importantly, confidence in the business sector plummeted to the worst ever since the organisation started documenting PMI in 2014.

“Overall input costs rose at one of the sharpest rates on record, with selling prices increased accordingly. This resulted in marked reductions in new orders and business activity, while business sentiment was the lowest in the survey’s history,” the report read in part.

A positive light in the report was that some companies managed to add a few new hires, extending a six-month trend of job creation. The downside to this was that the companies employed these staff on a short-term basis.

The report also stated that companies are making efforts, now more than ever, to help their staff stay afloat in the current economic situation.

“Meanwhile, efforts to help workers with rising living costs meant that staff pay was increased to the greatest extent in seven months,” the report added.

Metrics like the private sector output, volume of orders, and quantities of purchases made by customers all recorded steeper values than they did in September.

Trends showed that prices, cost of staff maintenance and input prices, on the other hand, recorded very sharp increases, with some metrics posting record hikes since March 2023.

Inflation in the general Nigerian macro environment is telling in every quarter and businesses are not exempt.

Analysts told Investors King that special interventions will help ease the pressure on companies, but warned that risky conditions attached to these measures may scare off firms from accepting them.

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