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Nigeria Will Benefit Less From African Trade Deal – NESG

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Nigeria Will Benefit Less From African Trade Deal – NESG

Nigeria and other resource-based countries will benefit less from the African Continental Free Trade Area than economies that are more diversified, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has said.

The NESG, a private sector-led think-tank, said in its 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook that Nigeria could reap more gains through export diversification away from crude oil.

It said trade in Africa remained dominated by raw materials and less processed products, adding that on average, minerals and agriculture accounted for 44 per cent and 16 per cent of intra-African trade respectively between 2007 and 2017.

The NESG said, “Evidence has shown that African economies that are more diversified and have improved transport infrastructure, would benefit more from the trade pact than others that are resource-based and agricultural dependent.

“Putting this in context, South Africa currently accounts for 40 per cent of intra-African manufacturing imports. On the other hand, resource-based countries, such as, Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria – which collectively account for approximately 50 per cent of Africa’s GDP – contribute only 11 per cent to intra-African trade.”

“Another bone of contention is the issue of ‘rules of origin’, which constitutes a significant risk factor. This implies that protectionism practices by some countries could constitute a setback for the establishment of the ambitious single market for Africa. But there are several reasons to be optimistic,” it added.

The group said the World Bank estimates revealed that the AfCFTA would promote manufacturing exports over natural resources, agricultural and services exports, and that manufacturing exports would account for one-third of the projected total exports of $2.5tn by 2035.

It said, “Nigeria could reap more gains through export diversification away from crude oil, as manufacturing exports currently account for an average of nine per cent of the country’s total exports.

“This suggests that efforts should be directed at strengthening domestic value chains, particularly the agro-allied industrial base.

“To achieve this, there is a need to attract private capital, most especially, FDI, that would allow for knowledge and technological transfers.”

According to the NESG, for Nigeria to maximally benefit from the trade deal, there is an urgent need to also address transport infrastructure bottlenecks and provide improved logistics.

It said, “Finding a lasting solution to the Apapa gridlock by creating similar ports in other regions of the country, so as to ensure speedy clearance of consignments needs to be prioritised.

“Nigeria also needs to set standards for locally-made goods to enhance their attractiveness in the regional market.

“The Nigerian government as a matter of urgency needs to operate an efficient and corruption-free land border system, so as to guide against the importation of low-cost sub-standard products into the country.

“It is only when these and many more reforms are implemented that Nigeria can begin to reap the benefits of the trade deal.”

The group noted that owing to the outbreak of COVID-19, the implementation of the AfCFTA was postponed from July 1, 2020 to January 1, 2021.

It said, “The key goal of the free trade pact is to expand the volume of intra-African trade, which stood at 16 per cent in 2018 .“Till date, 36 countries, including Nigeria, have ratified the agreement. The trade deal is expected to create a single market with a combined GDP of $2.5tn and total population or market size of 1.2 billion.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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CBN Replaces Nigerian Security Printing and Minting Plc Management Team

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has dismissed the top management team of the Nigerian Security Printing and Minting Plc (NSPM), appointing Abubakar Sule Minjibir as the acting Managing Director.

This development was disclosed in an internal memo titled “House Notice No. 2083 – Executive Management Changes,” signed by Soji Ogungbesan, General Manager of Corporate Services at NSPM.

The newly appointed interim executive management includes Abubakar Sule Minjibir as the Acting Managing Director, Mohammed Mustapha as General Manager of Finance and Strategy, and Adesoji Ogungbesan as General Manager of Corporate Services.

Minjibir succeeds Ahmed Halilu, the former MD and CEO of NSPM, who had been appointed by the former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2022.

Halilu’s appointment had sparked controversy due to his reported familial ties with Aisha Buhari, the former President’s wife.

The memo, dated July 10, 2024, stated: “The board has announced the immediate dissolution of the present executive management team of the NSPM and has approved the immediate constitution of an interim executive management team.”

The memo also assured staff of the new management’s commitment to their welfare and the strategic initiatives and organizational transformation developed by the board.

Staff members were encouraged to cooperate with the new management team to achieve the board’s strategic vision for the company.

Alongside Halilu, the other executives dismissed include Ado Danjuma, Executive Director of Corporate Services; Tunji Kazeem, Executive Director of Security Documents; Chris Orewa, Executive Director of the Lagos factory; and Victoria Lucky Irabor, Company Secretary and Legal Adviser.

The dismissal and appointment of new management come amid concerns raised by various groups about the previous leadership’s connections and the potential implications for the security and integrity of sensitive materials produced by the NSPM.

The Gravitas Group, an international advocacy organization, had previously condemned Halilu’s appointment, calling it a “family affair” and expressing concerns about the concentration of such sensitive responsibilities within a familial relationship to the President.

As the CBN moves forward with the new interim leadership, it aims to steer NSPM towards achieving its strategic goals and ensuring the integrity and efficiency of its operations.

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Dangote Refinery Buys 11 Million Barrels of American Crude Due to Domestic Shortages

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The Dangote Refinery has announced plans to acquire an additional 11 million barrels of crude oil from the United States.

In a tender viewed by Bloomberg, Dangote Refinery purchased five million barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland crude for delivery next month and in September.

The company has also initiated a tender process to buy another six million barrels of American crude for September.

Despite its reliance on local crude supplies, the refinery near Lagos has been forced to seek imports to sustain its operations.

With the ability to source crude from offshore terminals in just a few days, the refinery took in over 41 million barrels of feedstock in the first half of the year.

Notably, about a quarter of this amount was sourced from the United States.

Aliko Dangote, Chairman of Dangote Group, explained the necessity of importing crude oil as the refinery scales up production and explores alternative supply contracts.

“It makes economic sense for us to tender for crude. If we could source 100 percent Nigerian crude, then fine, but we can’t wait,” Dangote stated at the Africa CEO Forum 2024.

He further said it is important for a mix of different crude types to optimize operations, given the current limitations in domestic production.

The refinery’s recent acquisition contrasts with its earlier deliveries, which included 11 WTI cargoes, or nine million barrels, between February and May, alongside approximately 18 million barrels of Nigerian crude.

This move to secure a longer-term offtake agreement indicates a commitment to diversifying crude sources, particularly during a period of weak demand for Nigerian supply.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which holds a 20 percent equity stake in the refinery, has faced difficulties meeting its 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) crude oil obligation.

In June, Nigeria’s crude output was around 1.28 million barrels per day, significantly below its estimated production capacity of 2.6 million barrels per day.

Factors such as crude theft, aging oil pipelines, low investment, and divestments by major oil companies have all contributed to declining production.

Despite various assurances from the federal government and the NNPC about meeting the country’s OPEC quota, Nigeria recorded an estimated 30 million barrels of underproduction in the first four months of 2024.

Efforts to curb insecurity in the Niger Delta, where Nigeria’s oil is extracted, have included a multi-billion-naira contract with local security groups and substantial spending on official security agencies. Nonetheless, oil theft, asset vandalism, and sabotage remain rampant in the region.

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NNPC Seeks $2 Billion Crude-Backed Loan Amid Mounting Debts

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is exploring the option of securing a $2 billion loan using crude oil pre-payments as collateral.

Mele Kyari, the group’s general manager, revealed that the company is seeking a loan against 30,000-35,000 barrels per day of crude production.

However, he did not disclose the exact amount of money NNPC aims to raise.

“We have no problem covering our gasoline payments. This is just money for normal business and not a desperate act,” Kyari told Reuters.

The funds raised from this loan are intended to support all of NNPC’s business activities, including boosting production growth.

Despite the assurance of financial stability, NNPC’s financial situation has raised eyebrows, with the company reportedly owing around $6 billion to international traders for imported petrol.

These traders have indicated that NNPC is taking longer to make payments, exceeding the typical 90-day window.

Further complicating matters, NNPC’s debt includes overdue payments ranging from $4 billion to $5 billion for January imports alone.

This has led several international petrol suppliers to withdraw from recent tenders.

Kyari remains optimistic, stating that the loan will be a syndication with regular partners who have longstanding business relationships with NNPC.

He anticipates concluding the deal within the next two months.

The identity of the lender remains uncertain, with sources indicating that the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) may be unable to extend its exposure to Nigeria to the desired level.

Efforts to get confirmation from Olufemi Soneye, NNPC’s chief corporate communications officer, regarding the new oil-backed loan proved unsuccessful.

This potential $2 billion loan follows NNPC’s recent $3.3 billion emergency crude repayment loan secured on August 16, 2023.

Arranged by Afreximbank, the loan was aimed at supporting the naira and stabilizing the foreign exchange market. It also intended to back the federal government’s monetary and fiscal reforms.

NNPC’s pursuit of the new loan underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector, which has been grappling with fluctuating oil prices, operational inefficiencies, and financial mismanagement.

As the company seeks to bolster its finances, the outcome of this loan negotiation could have significant implications for the country’s economic stability and its energy sector’s future.

The oil-backed loan strategy reflects NNPC’s broader efforts to leverage its crude production capacity to secure necessary funding.

However, the increasing debt levels and delayed payments to international traders highlight the pressing need for comprehensive reforms and efficient management within Nigeria’s oil industry.

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