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Bitcoin Starting to Lead FX Markets, Analysis of Tesla Reaction Shows: Report

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Bitcoin Starting to Lead FX Markets, Analysis of Tesla Reaction Shows: Report

In a sign of continued maturity as a macro asset, bitcoin now looks to be leading the price action in the foreign exchange markets (FX).

“The dollar slid back to flat on the day on Monday after a surge in bitcoin to record highs foiled the U.S. currency’s attempt to rally back from [U.S. nonfarm] payrolls-inspired losses in the previous session,” a Reuters article published earlier this week says.

The article claims that the Tesla-led rally in bitcoin (BTC) helped EUR/USD (euro-dollar exchange rate) extend Friday’s gains in the wake of dismal eurozone investor confidence data.

A closer look at the two markets’ price action shows that EUR/USD, the most liquid currency pair globally, tracked bitcoin higher following the Tesla news.

EUR/USD broke out of a descending channel (above left) at 14:00 UTC on Monday, signaling a continuation of Friday’s rise from 1.1990 to 1.2040, which was fueled by the dismal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (labor market) data.

Notably, the currency pair’s breakout happened at least an hour after Tesla news propelled bitcoin to new highs above $42,000. The U.S. electric car maker disclosed its bitcoin investments worth $1.5 billion, validating the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a reserve asset.

It does appear as though FX traders sold dollars, lifting EUR/USD higher, as the greenback took a hit against bitcoin, a perceived inflation hedge/digital gold. It’s worth noting that macro factors such as Eurozone’s slow vaccine delivery and relatively tepid economic recovery favored a drop in EUR/USD.

Both bitcoin and EUR/USD have remained largely bid ever since. The cryptocurrency set a new peak price of $48,925 early Friday, while EUR/USD is now trading above 1.2100.

While it may be too early to call bitcoin a lead indicator for the FX markets, analysts are confident that the cryptocurrency is heading in that direction.

“While I certainly think this may be where we’re headed, bitcoin still has some more maturing to do before we get there,” Joel Kruger, a currency strategist at LMAX Digital, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.

The crypto community considers bitcoin as a better store of value and medium of exchange than the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies in general. That’s because bitcoin’s pace of supply expansion is cut by half every four years, which is in stark contrast to expansionary (inflationary) monetary policy implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Steady Above $70,900 as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Outflows Increase

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Bitcoin (BTC) maintains its stronghold above $70,900 despite increasing outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

As reported by CheckonChain, a total of $124.9 million flowed out of GBTC recently, contrasting with modest inflows into other investment vehicles like Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB.

This trend has prompted speculation within the market regarding its impact on Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

While some believe that continued outflows from GBTC may exert selling pressure on BTC, driving down prices, others adopt a more cautious approach.

They argue that such outflows are expected from GBTC, given its relatively higher fee structure compared to alternative investment options.

Traders, however, seem to be pricing in a degree of stability for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, with optimistic forecasts on platforms like Polymarket.

According to predictions, there’s a 60% chance that BTC will reach $75,000 by the end of April, while the likelihood of it hitting $80,000 stands at 32%.

Despite the varying sentiments among market participants, Bitcoin’s resilience above the $70,900 mark underscores its status as a cornerstone asset in the crypto space.

Investors continue to monitor developments closely, navigating through the complex interplay of factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

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Bitcoin Tests $66,000 Amidst Volatility Forecast

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As Bitcoin surged to a $66,000 price level during Asian trading hours, cryptocurrency markets brace for heightened volatility, with market observers predicting turbulent times ahead.

The cryptocurrency’s price volatility has been a subject of much discussion, particularly in light of recent events.

Semir Gabeljic, Director of Capital Formation at Pythagoras Investments, who highlighted the ongoing volatility cited a recent drawdown of 10% fueled by spot Bitcoin ETF outflows from GBTC, totaling approximately $300 million on March 20.

Gabeljic emphasized that such drawdowns typically occur in the lead-up to Bitcoin halving events, signaling a potential for increased volatility in the near future.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks the world’s most liquid digital assets, experienced a minor dip of 0.5%.

However, amidst this overall market movement, CoinDesk’s Digitization Index (DTZ) saw a notable uptick, led by protocols like Ethereum Name Service (ENS), which rose by 2.7% during Asia trading hours.

Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital noted the current consolidation in the market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum trading within a relatively tight range.

They suggested that the market might see a pause in activity over the weekend following the volatility leading up to the previous weekend’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Also, QCP Capital highlighted the continued outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), expecting a fourth consecutive day of BTC spot exchange-traded fund net outflows.

The firm also pointed out a widening discount on Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the market’s diminishing expectations for the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF.

With Bitcoin’s test of $66,000 and ongoing market dynamics, cryptocurrency investors and analysts remain vigilant, anticipating further fluctuations in the days to come.

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Binance CEO Forecasts Bitcoin Surge Beyond $80,000 on Institutional Inflows

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Binance Chief Executive Officer Richard Teng has set his sights on Bitcoin surging beyond the $80,000 price level on the back of rising institutional investments into crypto-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Speaking at an event in Bangkok on Sunday, Teng highlighted the significant impact of the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States earlier this year.

He noted that this development has attracted a considerable influx of institutional investors, propelling fresh funds into the cryptocurrency market.

Teng expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, emphasizing that “we’re just getting started.”

Initially estimating Bitcoin to reach around $80,000 by the end of the year, Teng now believes that the cryptocurrency’s price will surpass this milestone.

He attributed this bullish outlook to a combination of decreasing supply and sustained demand within the market.

However, he cautioned that the rally wouldn’t be without its fluctuations, suggesting that the market’s ups and downs would ultimately benefit its overall health.

Bitcoin has already surged by an impressive 56% this year, reaching a record high of nearly $73,798 last week.

Despite concerns among some investors about a potential bubble, Teng remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Teng’s forecast comes in the wake of his appointment as CEO of Binance, succeeding co-founder Changpeng Zhao in November following the company’s $4.3 billion settlement with US authorities.

With relentless inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since their approval in January, Teng expects further institutional adoption in the near term, with more endowments and family offices anticipated to increase their allocations into Bitcoin ETFs.

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