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MPC Sees Holding Interest Rate at 13.5%

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Interbank rate
  • MPC Sees Holding Interest Rate at 13.5%

Analysts are predicting that the Central Bank of Nigeria will leave the interest rate unchanged at 13.5 percent during the two days Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) starting today in Abuja.

Nigeria’s inflation rate moderated from 11.44 percent to 11.22 percent in June, suggesting that prices of goods are starting to reflect recent stability in the foreign exchange market due to the CBN’s intermittent forex intervention at various segments of the market.

Still, foreign direct investment remained low despite the CBN refuting Reuters’ declaration of 40 percent drop in FDI in 2018, the overall performance was below Ghana and other African countries perceived more economically stable than Nigeria.

Therefore, with the U.S Federal Reserve expected to announce a possible rate cut in three days time, Nigerian market experts are projecting that the CBN Monetary Policy Committee will leave interest rates unchanged at the current level to attract global investors that are likely to abandon U.S. assets for emerging economies with reasonable growth.

While it is not certain foreign investors will eventually jump on Nigerian instruments given lack of economic team months after the general elections, it is the only available option to prop up FDI and sustain the foreign reserves in a period when global growth is projected to slow amid trade wars and unrest in the Middle East, Venezuela, Libya etc.

Analysts at Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) said: “The MPC will maintain the current status quo of 13.5 percent benchmark rate and a cash reserve ratio of 22.5 percent.”

“The decision would be premised on rising inflation rate which is above the CBN’s single digit, lower crude oil prices, slow economic growth and the increase in import duty charge,” said the analysts at the Bismarck Rewane-led FDC.

However, analysts at FSDH sees an additional 50 basis points reduction. They said given CBN new position to stimulate economic growth and compel lenders to increase credit facility to the private sector, it is possible the CBN ‘oversee’ MPC will lower interest rates to sustain its ongoing policy, LDR of 60 percent, SDF to N2 billion and caping lenders bills purchase.

“We think the CBN will reduce rates by 50 basis points, given that inflation has slowed further, and exchange rate has remained stable,” said analysts at investment and merchant banking firm, FSDH.

Experts at Investors King said global happenings will prevent MPC from cutting rates twice in the last one year when economic metrics remain the same and in some cases worst.

They predicted that MPC will maintain current interest rates to sustain capital importation, especially when developed economies are projected to lower rates in coming days.

The experts, who had predicted in November 2018 that Nigeria will have to maintain a reasonably high monetary policy rate to remain attractive to investors in 2019, said their position has not changed.

“To sustain capital importation despite falling oil prices and almost stagnant oil output, the central bank has to maintain high monetary policy rate to remain attractive to investors and curb inflation rate while simultaneously sustaining forex intervention.”

The analysts noted that a healthy FDI will sustain the nation’s foreign reserves, curb inflation rate – cost-pull inflation and support the Naira.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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