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Nigeria’s Economy Expands Slower than Expected in Q1 2019

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  • Nigeria’s Economy Expands Slower than Expected in Q1 2019

Nigeria’s economic productivity expanded at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2019 than the preceding quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown.

The report released on Monday showed the economy grew at 2.01 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, up from the 1.89 percent recorded during the same quarter of 2018. Representing an increase of 0.12 percent.

The NBS, which released both the GDP report for the final quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 together, showed that the economy expanded at 2.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, indicating a decline of 0.38 percent.

Despite the slightly slower growth rate recorded in the quarter, this is the strongest first quarter since 2015, especially when the uncertainty surrounding the general elections is factored in.

Again, the natural surge in economic productivity due to the increase in demand during the holiday (Christmas) period bolstered growth rate in the final quarter of 2018, therefore Q1 2019 result might just set the tone for the rest of the year.

Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms during the quarter, higher than the N28,438,604.23 million recorded in the first quarter of 2018.

As expected, it was 9.75 percent lower than the N35,230,607.63 million recorded in the preceding quarter when activities were generally high.

Oil Sector

Oil production during the first quarter stood at 1.96 million barrels per day (mbpd), slightly lower than the 1.98mbpd recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018 but higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 by 0.05mbpd. Oil output during the first quarter was the highest since the second half of 2017.

The oil sector contracted by 2.4 percent year-on-year during the first quarter, indicating a decrease of 16.43 percent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Growth in the sector decreased by 0.79 percent from the 1.62 percent decline recorded in the final quarter of 2018.

On a quarterly basis, the oil sector grew at 11.06 percent in the first quarter, accounting for 9.14 percent of the total real GDP in Q1 2019.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector continued to be the powerhouse of the Nigerian economy, grew at 2.47 percent rate during the first quarter. This was 1.72 percent higher than the number recorded for the same quarter of 2018 and 0.23 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2018.

During the period, the non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and communication technology. Other drivers were Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, Trade and Construction.

The sector contributed 90.86 percent to the economy, higher than the first quarter of 2018 when it accounted for 90.45 percent. The sector is expected to contribute even more in the second half of the year, given MTN attractiveness and other adjustments being made by the government to enhance the non-oil sector.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Economy

COVID-19: CBN Has Disbursed N83B Loans to Healthcare Sector

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CACOVID

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele, yesterday, said the central bank had disbursed over N83.9 billion to pharmaceutical and healthcare practitioners in the country since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

Also, Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has stressed the need for a slash in the cost of governance in the country, saying a lot more resources could be dedicated towards healthcare and critical infrastructure.

They both said this yesterday, at the premiere of ‘Unmasked’, a documentary on Nigeria’s response to the pandemic held in Lagos.

Emefiele, who was represented by the CBN’s Director of Corporate Communications, Osita Nwasinobi, explained: “Building a robust healthcare infrastructure was also vital from a security perspective, as some nations had imposed restrictions on the exports of vital medical drugs as well as the use of drug patents that could aid in containing the spread of the pandemic.

“As a result, we focused our interventions in the healthcare sector on three areas. Building the capacity of our healthcare institutions supporting the domestic manufacturing of drugs by businesses, and providing grants to researchers in the medical field, in order to encourage them to develop breakthrough innovations that would address health challenges faced by Nigerians.

“In this regard, we disbursed over N83.9 billion in loans to pharmaceutical companies and healthcare practitioners, which is supporting 26 pharmaceutical and 56 medical projects across the country. We were also able to mobilise key stakeholders in the Nigerian economy through the CACOVID alliance, which led to the provision of over N25 billion in relief materials to affected households, and the set-up of 39 isolation centres across the country. These measures helped to expand and strengthen the capacity of our healthcare institutions to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

According to the CBN Governor, the banking sector regulator also initiated the Healthcare Sector Research and Development Intervention Grant Scheme, which was to aid research on solutions that could address diseases such as COVID-19, and other communicable/non-communicable diseases.

He said so far, five major healthcare-related research projects were being financed under the initiative.

Speaking further on the call to increase access to health insurance, Emefiele said: “One key aspect which we would have to address is improving access to healthcare for all Nigerians. A key factor that has impeded access to healthcare for Nigerians is the prevailing cost of healthcare services.

“According to a study by World Health Organisation (WHO), only four percent of Nigerians have access to health insurance. Besides food, healthcare expenses are a significant component of average Nigeria’s personal expenditure.

“Out of pocket expenses on healthcare amount to close to 76 percent of total healthcare expenditure. At such levels of health spending, individuals particularly those in rural communities may be denied access to healthcare services.

“Expanding the insurance net to capture the pool of Nigerians not covered by existing health insurance schemes, could help to reduce the high out of pocket expenses on healthcare services by Nigerians. It will also help to increase the pool of funds that could be invested in building our healthcare infrastructure and in improving the existing welfare package of our healthcare workers.”

“The private sector has a significant role to play in this regard given the decline in government revenues as occasioned by the drop in commodity prices. Leveraging innovative solutions that can provide insurance services at relatively cheap prices could significantly help to improve access to healthcare for a large proportion of Nigerians particularly those in our rural communities.”

According to Emefiele, the CBN remains committed to working with all stakeholders in improving access to finance and credit that would support the development of viable healthcare infrastructure in our country.

On his part, Sanwo-Olu said: “What are the lessons that we have learned with the Covid-19? Looking at all the things that Covid-19 has cost us, how are we preparing ourselves?

“The truth be told the structure of our governance system needs to change particularly the cost of governance. We need to speak up and ask ourselves are we ready to change.”

“When it gets to the election it is the same set of people that will come up and people don’t come out to vote and we end up having 20 percent out of 100 percent that will elect those that will govern. So, the change has to be about all of us. That is how the real change that will help us will come,” he added.

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Economy

Emefiele Says CBN Will Resist All Attempts to Continue Maize Importation

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Farm input

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has vowed to resist all attempts to continue the importation of maize into the country.

Godwin Emefiele, the governor, CBN, in a statement titled ‘Emefiele woos youths to embrace agriculture’, said: “the CBN would resist attempts by those who seek to continually import maize into the country.”

Emefiele, who spoke in Katsina during the unveiling of the first maize pyramid and inauguration of the 2021 maize wet season farming under the CBN-Maize Association of Nigeria Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, said maize farmers in the country had what it takes to meet the maize demand gap of over 4.5 million metric tonnes in the country.

With over 50,000 bags of maize available on this ground, and others aggregated across the country, maize farmers are sending a resounding message that we can grow enough maize to meet the country’s demand,” Emefiele said.

He explained that the maize unveiled at the ceremony would be sold to reputable feed processors.

He added that this would in turn impact positively on current poultry feed prices, as over 60 per cent of maize produced in the country were used for producing poultry feed.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Spending Structure Unsustainable, Budget Head Says

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Nigeria’s current trend of spending more money on running the government than on building new infrastructure is unsustainable, the country’s top budget oversight official said.

Low revenue collection and high recurrent costs have resulted in actual capital expenditure below two trillion naira ($4.88 billion) a year for a decade, Ben Akabueze, director-general of the Budget Office, said Tuesday in a virtual presentation.

“Hence, the investments required to bridge the infrastructure gap are way beyond the means available to the government,” Akabueze said. Recurrent spending, allocated towards salaries and running costs, has accounted for more than 75% of the public budget every year since 2011, he said.

Africa’s largest economy requires at least $3 trillion of spending over the next 30 years to close its infrastructure gap, Moody’s Investors Service said in November. The country’s tax revenue as a proportion of gross domestic product is one of the lowest globally, according to the International Monetary Fund.

“Huge recurrent expenditure has constrained the provision of good roads, steady power supply, health care services, quality education and quality shelter,” Akabueze said.

Nigeria should amend its constitution to create six regions to replace the existing 36 states, which each have their own governments, Akabueze said. The country also needs to reduce the number of cabinet ministers to a maximum of 24 from more than 40 and cut federal ministries to fewer than 20 from the current 27, he said.

“No country can develop where a large part of its earnings is spent on administrative structures rather than on capital investment,” Akabueze said.

 

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