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Nigeria’s Economy Expands Slower than Expected in Q1 2019

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  • Nigeria’s Economy Expands Slower than Expected in Q1 2019

Nigeria’s economic productivity expanded at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2019 than the preceding quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown.

The report released on Monday showed the economy grew at 2.01 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, up from the 1.89 percent recorded during the same quarter of 2018. Representing an increase of 0.12 percent.

The NBS, which released both the GDP report for the final quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 together, showed that the economy expanded at 2.39 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, indicating a decline of 0.38 percent.

Despite the slightly slower growth rate recorded in the quarter, this is the strongest first quarter since 2015, especially when the uncertainty surrounding the general elections is factored in.

Again, the natural surge in economic productivity due to the increase in demand during the holiday (Christmas) period bolstered growth rate in the final quarter of 2018, therefore Q1 2019 result might just set the tone for the rest of the year.

Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms during the quarter, higher than the N28,438,604.23 million recorded in the first quarter of 2018.

As expected, it was 9.75 percent lower than the N35,230,607.63 million recorded in the preceding quarter when activities were generally high.

Oil Sector

Oil production during the first quarter stood at 1.96 million barrels per day (mbpd), slightly lower than the 1.98mbpd recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018 but higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 by 0.05mbpd. Oil output during the first quarter was the highest since the second half of 2017.

The oil sector contracted by 2.4 percent year-on-year during the first quarter, indicating a decrease of 16.43 percent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Growth in the sector decreased by 0.79 percent from the 1.62 percent decline recorded in the final quarter of 2018.

On a quarterly basis, the oil sector grew at 11.06 percent in the first quarter, accounting for 9.14 percent of the total real GDP in Q1 2019.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector continued to be the powerhouse of the Nigerian economy, grew at 2.47 percent rate during the first quarter. This was 1.72 percent higher than the number recorded for the same quarter of 2018 and 0.23 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2018.

During the period, the non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and communication technology. Other drivers were Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, Trade and Construction.

The sector contributed 90.86 percent to the economy, higher than the first quarter of 2018 when it accounted for 90.45 percent. The sector is expected to contribute even more in the second half of the year, given MTN attractiveness and other adjustments being made by the government to enhance the non-oil sector.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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