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CBN Resumes Liquidity Mop-up

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King
  • CBN Resumes Liquidity Mop-up

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) last week held a primary market auction as it offered 91-day, 182-day and 364-day instruments, which closed at marginal rates of 10.3 per cent, 12.6 per cent and 12.9 per cent respectively.

Oversubscription was recorded across all instruments on offer, which included:91-day (2 times bid-to-offer), 182-day (1.3 times bid-to-offer) and 364-day (2.3 times bid-to-offer), with a total amount of N95.7 billion successfully allotted in line with the offered amount.

According to a report by Afrinvest West Africa Limited, the CBN resumed its open market operation (OMO) auctions during the week, after holding no auction in the prior week.

The auction was held on the 4th of April for two instruments, 203-day and 304-day, which were auctioned at discount rates of 13 per cent and 13.04 per cent respectively.

The total amount allotted for the instruments were N24.6 billion (203-day) and N176.4 billion (304-day).
The report showed that the secondary market moved in line with liquidity levels at the start of the week as average yield in the market declined by 0.2 per cent to 13.4 per cent.

However, as liquidity levels moderated through the week, yields trended upwards, before paring on the final day of the week to settle the average yield at 13.4 per cent.

Also, given the scarce liquidity levels, money market rates – the open buy back (OBB) and overnight rose significantly during the week, settling 9.9 per cent and 10.2 per cent higher by the end of the week, to 19.7 per cent and 21 per cent respectively. “Given that system liquidity is expected to remain tempered as the CBN sustains OMO auctions, with N33 billion worth of instruments expected to mature on the 11th of April 2019, we expect rates to remain elevated,” it added.

FX Market

The naira last week appreciated at the Investors and Exporters foreign exchange (FX) window by 0.10 per cent to close at N360.33 to a dollar, amid a 0.97 per cent week-on-week rise in external reserves to $44.68 as at April 3, 2019. However, the interbank FX market the naira/dollar rate remained unchanged at N355.78/$ amid weekly injections of $210 million by the CBN into the FX market via the Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS) of which: $100 million was allocated to Wholesale SMIS, $55 million was allocated to small and medium scale enterprises and $55 million was sold for invisibles. Also, the naira was flattish against the US dollar at the black market at N360/USD; but depreciated at the Bureau De Change (BDC) segment by 0.28 per cent to close N358/USD, according to a report by analysts at Cowry Assets Management Limited.

Meanwhile, the naira gained for most of the foreign exchange forward contracts as 1-month, 2- month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-months rates decreased by 0.16 per cent, 0.18 per cent, 0.16 per cent, 0.31 per cent and 0.64 per cent respectively to close at N362.96/dollar, N365.90/dollar, N369.19/dollar, N381.39/dollar and N403.57/dollar respectively.

But the spot rate rose (that is the naira lost) by 0.02 per cent to close at N307/USD.

“In the new week, we expect stability in the naira/dollar rate in most market segments, especially at the BDC segment, as CBN sustains its special interventions,” Cowry Assets predicted.

Bonds Market

To analysts at Afrinvest, activities at the bonds market last week further proved their earlier thesis that yields were yet to respond to changes in Monetary Policy Rate which was reduced to 13.5 per cent by the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee at their last meeting.

They pointed out that unlike the pattern of trades in the previous week, the domestic bonds market was largely bearish in the week with average yield on sovereign bonds instruments increasing every trading day throughout the week.

Yields went up by six basis points, three basis points, six basis points, five basis points and four basis points on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively, while average yield rose 23 basis points week-on-week.

At the close of the week, average yield rose to 14.27 per cent, from 14.04 per cent in the previous week.

Long dated bonds recorded the most sell-offs as average yields rose 26 basis points relative to average rise in yield of 21 basis points and seven basis points for medium and short-term bonds respectively.

Also, in line with its monthly bonds issuance programme, the Debt Management Office (DMO) last week offered 2-year and 3-year Savings Bonds maturing in April 10, 2021 and April 10, 2023 at 11.27 per cent and 12.276 per cent coupon respectively.

The Sovereign yield curve during the week was noticeably normal at the short-end while remaining flattish at the long-end of the curve.

“We believe the transitioning to full normalization will present enormous capital gain in the near term as we are certain that yield compression by 100 basis points to 200 basis points is inevitable, especially in the second half of 2019,” they added.

The Sub-Saharan Sovereign and Corporate Eurobonds market traded bullish during the week, a reversal of the bearish performance experienced in the previous week.

Average sovereign yield was down 50 basis points with the Zambian (-158bps), Ghanaian (-74bps), Gabonese (-72bps), Ivorian (66bps) and Nigerian (65bps) instruments recording the highest price appreciations.

On the corporate space, average yield was also down 71 basis points with Diamond 2019 (-119bps) enjoying the most buy interest as the instrument draws closer to maturity.

The International Monetary Fund last week has the Nigerian economy was recovering, giving President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic initiatives a pat on the back.

“Executive Directors welcomed Nigeria’s ongoing economic recovery, accompanied by reduced inflation and strengthened reserve buffers,” the IMF stated in its latest Executive Board’s 2019 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria.

It noted that real GDP increased by 1.9 per cent in 2018, up from 0.8 per cent in 2017, on the back of improvements in manufacturing and services, supported by spillovers from higher oil prices, ongoing convergence in exchange rates and strides to improve the business environment.

According to the Fund, headline inflation fell to 11.4 per cent at end-2018, reflecting declining food price inflation, weak consumer demand, a relatively stable exchange rate and tight monetary policy during most of 2018, but remains outside of the central bank’s target range of 6- 9 per cent.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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