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Nigeria’s Portfolio Inflows Rise to $1.32bn in January

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U.S dollar - Investors King
  • Nigeria’s Portfolio Inflows Rise to $1.32bn in January

Nigeria recorded significant increase in capital importation via foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in the investors’ and exporters’ forex window (I&E window) in January 2019, the FSDH Merchant Bank Limited has revealed.

In fact, FPI contribution in January stood at US$1.32 billion in January, accounting for 51.34 per cent of total inflows, the highest contribution since April 2018.

This was based on data obtained from the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange and was attributed to foreign investors taking advantage of higher yields on fixed income securities.

Tthe Head of Research and Strategy at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, Mr. Ayodele Akinwunmi, disclosed this while providing insights into the firm’s monthly economic and financial market outlook released at the weekend.

Also, about N2.33 trillion was expected to hit the money market from various maturing government securities and disbursement from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) this month.

The firm estimated that total outflow of approximately N644 billion from the various sources, leading to a net inflow of about N1.68 trillion in the market this month.

FSDH Research expects the market to remain relatively liquid in February 2019.

This, according to Akinwunmi, may continue to necessitate the issuance of open market operations (OMO) to mop-up the liquidity in the system.

“FSDH Research believes the yields on the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) may increase further, particularly on the long end from the current levels.

“NTB yields are likely to be influenced largely by the level of liquidity in the banking system, the short-term borrowing needs of the government, the need to maintain price stability and election considerations,” he explained.

In line with expectations of FSDH Research, the CBN continued with its tight monetary policy stance throughout January 2019 as it continued to mop up excess liquidity through the use of OMO. The goal is to curb inflation and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

“This approach led to an increase in the yields on NTBs in January 2019 compared with December,” Akinwunmi said.

FSDH Research anticipated that January 2019 inflation rate would drop to 11.40 per cent, from the 11.44 per cent recorded in December 2018. “We still however anticipate a hike in the inflation rate from June 2019 due to adjustments to the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and electricity tariff,” he added.

The National Bureau of Statistics would release the inflation report for January on Friday.

FSDH Research believes the CBN would continue to adjust its policies to keep yield above that inflation rate.

The firm stated that it observed downward movement in the external reserves in early February. This, it stated may be a pointer to demand pressure at the foreign exchange market, which may lead to depreciation in the value of the naira.

“This in the short-term is in line with our expectation. The current position of external reserves continues to provide short-term stability for the value of the naira. However, the medium-term stability in the foreign exchange market will depend on the country’s foreign exchange receipts from both crude oil and non-oil products.

“The 30-Day moving average external reserves increased by 0.13 per cent, from $43.12 billion at the end of December, to $43.17 billion at the end of January 2019,” it stated.

It pointed out that although there was a drop in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures that the for January 2019, the drop was in line with the historical trend of low manufacturing activities associated with January.

The Manufacturing PMI stood at 58.5 points in January, from a four year high of 61.1 points in December 2018. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also decreased to 60.1 points in January from 62.3 points in December.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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