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Investors Maintain Appetite for Short-dated Instruments

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capital market - Investors King
  • Investors Maintain Appetite for Short-dated Instruments

The bond market recorded moderate activities in both the primary and secondary markets last week as investors continued to show preference for short-dated instruments.

Nonetheless, the yields on treasury bonds pared moderately by four basis points last week to settle at 15.3 per cent.

This, was due to increased buy interest on the final trading day of the week, before which yields had increased moderately by one basis points, analysts at Afrinvest Securities stated in their latest report.

They noted that the yield differential between Treasury bills would likely result in a persistence of the trend witnessed over second half 2018 to date. “Although we expect yields on FGN bonds to trend upwards over the short-term. In the Sub-Saharan Eurobond market, demand levels were sustained into this week, as the average yield declined by 36 basis points to settle at 7.8 per cent.

“There were yield declines witnessed across all bonds, save for the Mozambique Eurobond, which recorded an eight basis points increase to settle at 14.1 per cent.

“On the flip side, the largest declines in yields were recorded on the Ghana and Kenya Eurobonds, which recorded average declines in Ask-yields of 45 basis points and 40 basis points respectively, to settle at 7.8 per cent and 7.7 per cent,” it added.

Similarly, the report showed that average yield on Nigeria’s Eurobonds pared in the week’s trading by 47 basis points to settle at 7.5 per cent.

“The resurgence in interest in assets is in line with our expectations and trend in election years. We expect continued interest in US Dollar assets through to H2:2019 as investors remain wary of risk factors on the horizon that could potentially affect the value of the naira,” the report added.

In addition, it noted that the trend in the corporate Eurobonds space closely mirrored that of Sub-saharan Eurobonds, as the average yield pared by 20 basis points to settle at 7.6 per cent. There were also yield declines across all bonds save for the Diamond Bank 2019 bond, which recorded a yield increase of 162 basis points to settle at 13.1 per cent.

This was expected as investors were anticipated to take profit on the instrument given the decline in the yield of the bond following the announcement of the bank’s merger with Access Bank Plc. Also, there was significant demand for the FBNH 2021 Eurobond during the week, as the Ask-yield on the bond declined by 1.5 per cent to settle at 6.3 per cent.

“Similar to our expectations for Nigeria Sovereign Eurobonds, we project the yields on these bonds to pare over the short-term given factors stated.”

Interbank Naira Market

Activities in the money market last week were somewhat muted as system liquidity remained in the negative region.

This followed the aggressive pace of open market auctions (OMO) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) last Tuesday and Thursday in its bid to prevent speculative sentiments in the market ahead of the upcoming presidential elections.

Tuesday’s auction saw the CBN offer OMO bills worth N60 billion, although it was largely undersubscribed, at N10.7 billion despite attractive rates on the offer: 107-day (11.9%), 170-day (13.5%) and 317-day (15.0%). Furthermore, maturity expectations on OMO instruments worth N375.4 billion saw the issuance of another OMO tranche on Thursday in an offer worth N400 billion, which was also largely undersubscribed.

Only the 364-day OMO bill was 1.13x subscribed while the 91-day (11.9%) and the 189-day (13.5%) were both undersubscribed by 0.12x and 0.02x.
Direction of rates in the secondary market saw money market rates – OBB (Open Buy Back) and OVN (Overnight) – rise further from 20 per cent and 23.8 per cent at close of the preceding week to 22.7 per cent and 24.7 per cent last week.

Notably, rates surged to 26.67 per cent (OBB) and 27.67 per cent (OVN) on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s surprise OMO auction as system liquidity worsened to the negative region. In the secondary T-bills market, bullish sentiment, especially for long tenor instruments, saw average yields decline 56 basis points to 13.52 per cent on Friday from 14.1 the preceding week.
This week, central bank is scheduled to repay N429.6 billion maturing treasury bills with the same sum rolled over.

“We expect rates at the auction to remain at attractive levels in line with recent trend while we anticipate a near muted activity in the secondary market.

“Also, in line with its tight system liquidity posture, we expect conduct of OMO auctions by the CBN next week to offset maturities worth N560.9 billion.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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