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Nigeria’s GDP Growth’ll be Below 2% in 2018 – W’Bank

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  • Nigeria’s GDP Growth’ll be Below 2% in 2018 – W’Bank

The World Bank has projected a slow growth in Nigeria’s economy in 2018 in its latest report.

According to the report on Nigeria’s bi-annual Economic Update on Wednesday, the country’s Gross Domestic Product growth is expected to hover slightly below two per cent in 2018, largely driven by non-oil industry and services.

In the report, it also stated that Nigeria’s investment in human capital compared to other nations remained very low.

Titled ‘Investing in Human Capital for Nigeria’s Future’, the report noted that, Nigeria, like many other countries, had underinvested in human capital, which was quite low compared to other countries, though it did not provide any statistics.

In recognition that bold actions are required to address years of underinvestment in human capital, the government of Nigeria has established a Human Capital Working Group to develop a unified vision for human capital development and drive implementation of interventions within the ‘Investing in our People’ pillar of the Government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, the bank said.

The statement quoted World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Rachid Benmessaoud, to have said, “The World Bank welcomed the Government of Nigeria’s recent ‘Call for Action’, requesting all stakeholders to join the Government’s effort to address Nigeria’s alarming human capital outcomes.

“As a member of the Human Capital Working Group, the World Bank stands ready to support the Government of Nigeria in its bold steps to improve the lives of its citizens.”

The bank said that Nigeria’s emergence from recession remained sluggish, adding that sectoral growth patterns were unstable.

“In the second quarter of 2018, the oil sector contracted by four per cent, the usually-resilient agricultural growth slowed significantly to 1.2 per cent, impacted by the security challenges in the Northeast and Middle Belt regions,” the World Bank said.

“The non-oil industry and services, which constitute over half of Nigeria’s economy, picked-up to 3.1 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively, driven by growth in construction, transport, and ICT.”

The Update reported that the Nigerian economy remained dependent on the small oil sector (under 10 per cent of GDP) for the bulk of its fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings.

The statement said, “Although oil revenues are increasing with recovering oil prices in 2018, distributions from oil revenues to the three tiers of government are constrained by the petrol subsidy and other prior deductions.

“In the first half of 2018, the current account surplus surpassed four per cent of GDP, driven largely by higher oil exports, while non-oil revenue collections have come in lower than envisaged.

“Despite sustained efforts to improve the business environment, Foreign Direct Investment inflows remain stagnated.”

According to the Update, the fiscal deficit will likely widen in 2018 due to increased spending and sustained revenue shortfalls.

It added that the current account balance was expected to remain positive, benefitting from the rising value of oil exports and limited growth of non-oil imports.

The capital account faces significant uncertainty, as external portfolio investors may exercise further caution, especially during the pre-election period, despite rising domestic yields, it added.

Given the clearly challenging economic backdrop, the Update suggested certain key policy reforms would be important to support macroeconomic resilience for Nigeria.

These include, among others, the acceleration of the economic diversification agenda, the reform of petrol subsidy regime to improve the fiscal space, improvements in the domestic revenue (particularly non-oil) to reduce volatilities in government revenues and increased investment in human capital for a truly sustainable growth.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Economy

Nigeria Earns Extra N318.4 Billion as Crude Oil Hits $67/Barrel

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Buhari

FG Generates Additional Income of N318.4 Billion as Crude Oil Hits $67/Barrel

The Federal Government earned an additional N318.36 billion in February following the surge in crude oil price above $60 per barrel.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, average $60 throughout the month of February.

In March, it rose to $67 per barrel.

According to the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, Nigeria’s crude oil price was retained at $40 per barrel for 2021.

However, she said the nation is presently producing below its 2.5 million barrel per day capacity at 1.7mbpd. This, she said includes 300,000bpd condensates.

“Although Nigeria’s total production capacity is 2.5mbpd, current crude production is about 1.7mbpd, including about 300,000bpd of condensates, which indicates compliance with OPEC quota,” the finance minister stated.

Going by the number, Nigeria is producing 1.4mbpd of crude oil without condensates, but with an additional $20 revenue when compared to the $40 per barrel benchmark for the year. It means the Federal Government realised an additional income of N318.360 billion or $20 X 1.4mbpd X 30days in the month of February.

Crude oil jumped to $68.54 per barrel on Friday following OPEC+’s decision to role-over production cuts.

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Economy

Nigeria, Morocco sign MOUs on Hydrocarbons, Others

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The Federal Government and the Kingdom of Morocco have signed five strategic Memoranda of Understanding that will foster Nigerian-Morocco bilateral collaboration and promote the development of hydrocarbons, agriculture, and commerce in both countries.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, led the Nigerian delegation to the agreement signing ceremony on Tuesday at Marrakech, Morocco, while the Chief Executive Officer of OCP Africa, Mr Anouar Jamali, signed for the Kingdom of Morocco, according to a statement by the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board.

Under the agreement between OCP, NSIA and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Nigeria will import phosphate from the Kingdom of Morocco and use it to produce blended fertiliser for the local market and export.

The statement said Nigeria would also produce ammonia and export to Morocco.

“As part of the project, the Nigerian Government plans to establish an ammonia plant at Akwa Ibom State,” it said.

The Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Mr Simbi Wabote, and the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Mallam Mele Kyari, were part of the delegation and they confirmed that their organisations would take equity in the ammonia plant when the Final Investment Decision would be taken, the statement said.

Sylva said the project would broaden economic opportunities for the two nations and improve the wellbeing of the people.

He added that the project would also positively impact agriculture, stimulate the growth of gas-based industries and lead to massive job creation.

He said the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), had mandated the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and it agencies and other government agencies to give maximum support for the project.

“He mandated me to ensure that at least the first phase of this project is commissioned before the expiration of his second term in office in 2023,” he added.

According to the statement, the MOUs were for the support of the second phase of the Presidential Fertiliser Initiative; Shareholders Agreement for the creation of the joint venture company to develop the multipurpose industrial platform and MOU for equity investment by the NNPC in the joint venture and support of the gas.

Other agreements are term sheet for gas sales and aggregation agreement and MOU for land acquisition and administrative facilitation to the establishment of the multipurpose industrial platform for gas sales and aggregation agreement.

The NCDMB boss described the bilateral agreement as significant to the Nigerian economy as it would accelerate Nigeria’s gas monetisation programme through establishment of the ammonia plant in the country.

The agreement would also improve Nigeria’s per capita fertiliser application through importation of phosphate derivatives from Morocco, he added.

Wabote challenged the relevant parties to focus on accelerating the FID, assuring them that the NCDMB would take equity investment for long-term sustainability of the project.

He canvassed for the setting up of a project management oversight structure to ensure project requirements and timelines are met.

“There is also need to determine manpower needs for construction and operations phase of the project and develop training programmes that will create the workforce pool from Nigeria and Morocco and design collaboration framework between research centres in Nigeria and Morocco to develop technology solutions for maintaining the ISBL and OSBL units of the Ammonia complex,” he said.

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Economy

Dangote Fertiliser Plant to Commence Shipment of Urea in March 2021

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Dangote to Sells Petrol in Naira, Plans to Commence Urea Shipment in March 2021

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, has said Dangote Fertiliser Plant will commence shipment of Urea in March 2021.

The CBN governor disclosed this during an inspection tour of the sites of Dangote Refinery, Petrochemicals Complex Fertiliser Plant and Subsea Gas Pipeline at Ibeju Lekki, Lagos on Saturday.

Emefiele further stated that Dangote Refinery would sell refined petroleum products in Naira when it starts production.

This he said would save the country from spending 41 percent of the nation’s foreign exchange on importation of petroleum products yearly.

Based on agreement and discussions with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and the oil companies, the Dangote Refinery can buy its crude in naira, refine it, and produce it for Nigerians’ use in naira,” Mr Emefiele said.

That is the element where foreign exchange is saved for the country becomes very clear. We are also very optimistic that by refining this product here in Nigeria, all those costs associated with either demurrage from import, costs associated with freight will be totally eliminated.

Emefiele explained that this will make the price of Nigeria’s petroleum products affordable and cheaper in naira.

If we are lucky that what the refinery produces is more than we need locally you will see Nigerian businessmen buying small vessels to take them to our West African neighbours to sell to them in naira.

“This will increase our volume in naira and help to push it into the Economic Community of West African States as a currency,” Mr Emefiele said.

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