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Oil Prices Climb Ahead of OPEC, G20 Meetings, but Cautious Mood Lingers

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  • Oil Prices Climb Ahead of OPEC, G20 Meetings, but Cautious Mood Lingers

Oil prices rose on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC meeting next week at which the producer club is expected to decide some form of supply cut to counter an emerging glut.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $51.88 per barrel at 0148 GMT, up 32 cents, or 0.6 percent from their last settlement.

International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were up 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $60.65 per barrel.

Despite Wednesday’s rise, oil prices have still lost almost a third of their value since early October, weighed down by an emerging supply overhang and by widespread weakness in financial markets.

The crude oil price slump since October is so far on par with the 2008 price crash and steeper than that of 2014/2015.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Dec. 6 to discuss output policy.

The OPEC-meeting will follow a gathering by the Group of 20 (G20) nations, which includes the world’s biggest economies, in Argentina this weekend, at which the Sino-American trade dispute as well as oil policy are expected to be discussed.

While most analysts expect some form of supply cut from the OPEC-meeting, sentiment in oil markets remains negative.

“Options traders remain focused on downside risks following a 30 percent slide in WTI,” Erik Norland, senior economist at commodities exchange CME Group wrote in a note, referring to the higher number of traders who have placed positions that would profit from a further fall in crude prices than those placing bets on a rising market.

Portfolio managers have slashed their combined net long position in crude futures by a total of 607 million barrels over the last eight weeks, the largest reduction over a comparable period since at least 2013, when the current data series began, exchange data showed.

A concern to global markets is a slowdown in global trade as a result of the Sino-American trade dispute, swelling debt and a strong dollar that puts pressure on emerging markets.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its latest outlook, published on Tuesday, that “trade growth is likely to slow further into the fourth quarter of 2018”, with growth likely at its slowest since Oct. 2016.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Markets

Ogun Govt Begins Sale Of ₦40,000 Rice, vows to Take Subsidized Foods to LGAs

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The Ogun State government under the leadership of Dapo Abiodun has commenced the sale of 50kg bags of rice for 40,000 Naira in the state.

Investors King reported that the subsidized rice program is part of the strategies by President Bola Tinubu’s government to address the economic hardship in the country.

Governor Dapo Abiodun, during the launching ceremony of the initiative held at the Arcade ground, Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, revealed plans by his administration to extend the subsidized food initiative to the twenty local government areas of the state.

He noted that the subsidized food initiative would not be limited to rice only, other items including garri, rice, and beans would be available for purchase at significantly reduced prices.

The governor said, “We will soon be implementing our own version of this scheme from each local government, meaning we will implement this across the twenty local government areas of the state to deepen the reach into our grassroots.

“We will be selling food items like garri, rice, and beans at heavily subsidized prices.”

“The distribution will include various groups such as federal and state civil servants, private sector organizations, craftsmen, trade unions, NGOs, student groups, market vendors, community development groups, and religious and traditional groups,” he added.

He reassured the state’s citizens that the Head of Service’s office, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the NSA’s office had created a comprehensive plan to ensure the fair distribution of the product throughout the state’s 20 local government areas.

The governor emphasized the need for accountability, noting that cash payments would not be accepted. 

However, he revealed that payments would be made via Point of Sales (PoS) machines.

Abiodun warned against double registration, adding that beneficiaries’ NIN will be verified after a physical screening at the point of sale.

According to the governor, the launch of the subsidized rice sale in Abeokuta for Ogun Central Senatorial District, Ilaro for Ogun West Senatorial District, and Ijebu-Ode for Ogun East Senatorial District will commence immediately.

“To ensure accountability, there will be no cash payments; payment will be made through Point of Sales (PoS) machines, and beneficiaries will undergo physical verification at the point of sale.

“No double registration will be allowed; NIN will be verified to ensure that we prevent any sharp practices.

“This distribution will be carried out transparently and fairly, ensuring that these palliatives reach those we have targeted,” he said.

Governor Abiodun concluded by describing the initiative as a sign of President Tinubu’s dedication to addressing the problem of rising food prices and cushioning the effect of the fuel subsidy removal.

On October 2, the Federal Government announced that Lagos, Kano, and Borno will be the next states that will benefit from its subsidized rice program.

According to a director at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, plans are already underway to roll out the food subsidy program in these states.

 

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Crude Oil

High US Fuel Demand, Middle East Risk Buoy Oil Prices

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The price of major oil benchmarks jumped more than 3 percent on Thursday following increased fuel demand in the United States due to Hurricane Milton and Middle East supply risks.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose $2.82, or 3.7 percent to settle at $79.40 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.61, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $75.85.

In the US, the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton hit Florida and knocked out power to more than 3.4 million homes and terminals.

Market analysts noted that the closures of several product terminals, delayed tanker truck deliveries and disrupted pipeline movement will likely be affecting supplies well into next week given broad based power outages.

This will serve as a positive news for the market as disruptions generally lend support.

Recall that crude benchmarks spiked earlier this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on October 1.

This raised the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Iran is backing several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

However, since Israel is yet to respond, crude benchmarks have eased.

Despite this, investors remained wary, given that Israel has vowed to wait and strike at the best time.

Israel has continued to fight in Lebanon as it Reuters reported that a strike on central Beirut on Thursday night killed 11 people and wounded at least 48.

In Yemen, the Houthis said they targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Gulf states are lobbying the US to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Iran’s allies if the conflict escalates.

Support came as investors express confidence that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in November after data showed an increase in weekly jobless claims and an annual rise in inflation that was the lowest since February 2021.

The US central bank started to lower interest rates in September after hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023.

 

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Petrol

NLC Slams NNPC Price Hike, Warns of Increased Poverty and Job Losses

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The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has reacted to the recent increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) popularly known as petrol by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

The union, via a statement signed by its president, Joe Ajaero, on Wednesday, revealed that the increase will further deepen poverty in the country, reduce production capacities, and render many people jobless.

The NLC president asked why NNPC, a private company, is fixing the price of petrol, a move he described as ‘a hegemonic monopoly’.

Ajaero called for the intervention of the Federal Government, adding that the government should present a roadmap for inclusive economic growth and national development.

Furthermore, the NLC called for the immediate reversal of the price increase.

He said “Even following the logic of market forces, we find it an aberration that a private company (NNPCL) is the one fixing prices and projecting itself as a hegemonic monopoly.

“We challenge the government to go to the drawing board and present us with a blueprint for inclusive economic growth and national development instead of this spasmodic ad hocism and palliative policy.

“It needs no stating the fact that the latest wave of increase has grossly altered the calculations of Nigerians once again at a time they were reluctantly coming to terms with their new realities. It will further deepen poverty as production capacities dip and more jobs are lost with multidimensional negative effects.

“In light of this, we urge the government to immediately reverse this rate hike as previous increases did not produce any good results. People only got poorer. But more fundamentally, the government should be bold enough to tell Nigerians in advance the destination it wants to take the country.”

Investors King reported that the NNPC officially announced an increase in the ex-depot price of fuel.

This latest development was detailed in a new price list by the NNPC on Wednesday, October 9.

While the ex-depot price in Lagos stands at ₦1,010 per litre, marketers in Port Harcourt will buy at ₦1,045 and in Calabar is now set at ₦1,050 per litre.

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