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W’Bank: NNPC’s 3-month Deduction for Subsidies Surpass 2017 Disbursement

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  • W’Bank: NNPC’s 3-month Deduction for Subsidies Surpass 2017 Disbursement

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) deductions from crude oil sales revenue for petrol subsidies in the first three months of 2018 alone exceeded the deductions for the whole of 2017, a report by the World Bank has revealed.

Specifically, the Bank in report titled: “Nigeria Bi-annual Economic Update for Fall 2018,” disclosed that while the deductions for the 2017 full year totalled N107.3 billion, that for January to March 2018 alone, was a total of N139.3 billion. The report pointed out that landing and transportation costs for imported petrol continue to be higher than the capped domestic pump price, “giving rise to cost under-recoveries by the NNPC.”

Independent oil marketers have stopped importing petrol since 2016 for this reason.
“The volume of petrol imported by NNPC in 2018 has been higher than in any other year. During the first three months of 2018, NNPC imported more than half of what it had imported in the whole of 2016.

“The need to shore up fuel inventories may have contributed to this, but there have also been widely reported cases of fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries where pump prices are higher than the subsidised price in Nigeria,” it stated.

The report had three broad aims: key developments in the Nigerian Economy in the recent past; assessment of likely economic outcomes in the short-to-medium term given the policy developments and highlights of key short-term risks. In addition, it contained an in-depth examination of selected highly relevant economic policy topics.

It explained that federally-collected revenues were higher in the first half of 2018 than in the corresponding period of 2017, with both the oil and non-oil revenue components surpassing their levels in first half of 2017 in nominal terms.

The increase in net oil and gas revenue collections, it noted were particularly significant at 140 per cent, mainly on account of higher oil prices in 2018, relative to 2017 which had an average price of $71.3 per barrel.

“The oil and non-oil revenues were however lower than the government’s targets. While the oil price was higher than the budgeted price (US$71.3 compared to the conservative oil benchmark price of US$51 per barrel), oil output came in lower than the target (an estimated actual production of 2.0mb/d, compared to 2.3mb/d budgeted). Furthermore, deductions from gross oil revenues were higher than planned.

“The various prior deductions by the NNPC from oil sales (including ‘cost under-recovery’ for unbudgeted petrol subsidies) contributed to net oil revenues in first half being 34 per cent below budget,” said the report.

It further stated: “Available data indicate that NNPC deductions from crude oil sales revenue for petrol subsidies in the first three months of 2018 exceeded the deductions for the whole of 2017.

On how far the country has fared with its plan to exit the practice of engaging joint venture cash call in its oil production business, the report noted that: “The government indicated, since 2017, that it will introduce a new funding mechanism for the joint venture cash call payments (JVCC), allowing for cost recovery by the international oil companies (IOCs). “However, cash call transfers still continue to be made by NNPC from gross oil sales revenue, despite the JVCC not being budgeted for.

“The government also indicated through its 2018 budget plans to restructure its ownership (equity) in joint venture oil assets to reduce the joint venture costs to the Nigerian government. It is not clear how much progress has been made on this front,” added the report.

Continuing, the report stated: “Net accrual to the Excess Crude Account (ECA) in first half of 2018 was negative. This was despite the fact that actual oil prices were higher than the budget oil price benchmark (i.e. the assumed oil price used to prepare the federation revenue framework) of US$51 per barrel.

“The ECA was established on the basis of Section 35 of the federal Fiscal Responsibility Law which stipulates a commodity (oil) price-based fiscal rule requiring that savings should accrue to the ECA if the price exceeds the budget benchmark.

“However in recent past, accruals have not been realised because in practice, compensations are made for oil output shortfalls. Furthermore, the NNPC deductions are charged first to oil revenues before considerations for the ECA.

“In the first half of 2018, there was also a US$496 million withdrawal from the ECA for the purchase of fighter aircrafts for anti-terrorism operations.

“Thus, apart from a US$80.6 million that accrued to the account in May, there were no other accruals (besides investment income) and the account which opened at US$2.2 billion in January 2018, had a balance of US$1.9 billion at the end of June.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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