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2018 Budget Deficit May Rise to N4.4tn — Report

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  • 2018 Budget Deficit May Rise to N4.4tn — Report

Except the Federal Government adopts a pragmatic approach to shore up its independent revenue, the fiscal deficit in the 2018 budget may widen from the appropriated sum of N1.9tn to N4.4tn, an economic report prepared by Afrinvest West Africa has revealed.

The company in its ‘Nigerian Banking Sector Report’, which was launched on Monday in Abuja, predicted a revenue underperformance of 40 per cent in independent revenue of the government.

It said that as a result of political distractions caused by election campaigns, the fiscal deficit might widen to up to 3.5 per cent of nominal Gross Domestic Product.

This, it added, was above the three per cent threshold prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

The 2018 budget, which was signed by President Muhammadu Buhari, had a total spending of N9.1tn made up of N2.87tn for capital expenditure; N3.51tn for recurrent (non-debt) expenditure; while N2.01tn was projected to be spent on debt servicing.

The N9.1tn budget was to be financed from N2.99tn to be generated from oil revenue; N31.25bn from Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas dividend; while N1.17bn was expected to be realised from minerals and mining revenue.

The Federal Government also projected to generate N658.55bn from Companies Income Tax; N207.51bn from Value Added Tax; N324.86bn from the Nigeria Customs Service; while N57.87bn was expected to come from Federation Account levies.

In the same vein, the government expected N847.95bn as independent revenue from its agencies, while tax amnesty income, signature bonus and unspent balance from previous years were to provide N87.84bn, N114.3bn and N250bn, respectively.

In the report, Afrinvest expressed worry that the “Federal Government’s ambitious spending plans contrasts poorly with revenue realities.”

For instance, the report explained that while the assumption for oil revenue was achievable, that of independent revenue and recoveries remained a source for concern.

The report read in part, “The Federal Government plans to generate 41.6 per cent of its revenues from oil and the remainder from taxes, independent revenue and recoveries, which account for 40.5 per cent of total projected revenues and have historically underperformed.

“Given these considerations as well as political distractions, we estimate a significant underperformance in revenues by 40 per cent.

“Hence, we estimate the fiscal deficit to expand to N4.4tn above budget estimate of N1.9tn, representing 3.5 per cent of nominal Gross Domestic Product, well above the three per cent threshold prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.”

Speaking on the report, the Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa, Mr Ike Chioke, said the report focussed on seven critical areas of the economy.

The areas are oil and gas sector, power sector reform, boosting competitiveness, transportation and infrastructure, human capital development, security, and building democratic institutions.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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