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Economy Gains as CBN Reforms Lift Exchange Rate

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  • Economy Gains as CBN Reforms Lift Exchange Rate

The global economy has been in turmoil since the emergence of Donald Trump as United States (US) President. While the American dollar continues to appreciate, other countries’ currencies have been nose diving. Besides, the trade tensions between the US and China are beginning to take a toll on global trade.

For instance, interest rate hike in the US, funds flow reversals away from emerging and frontier markets, appreciation in the value of the United States dollar relative to other emerging markets’ currencies have triggered over 20 per cent loss in value of four emerging market currencies from January to September. This crisis has aggravated high current account deficit in some of the emerging market countries, translating to rising dollar debt and fiscal deficit as a proportion of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Interestingly, Nigeria seems relatively insulated from the crisis in emerging markets given the level of reforms introduced by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele.

Some of these policies include the restrictions of 41 items from accessing forex from the CBN foreign exchange (forex) window, the introduction of Investors and Exporters forex window, sale of forex to Bureaux De Change (BDCs), the Anchor Borrowers programme, as well as forex intervention at the interbank forex market to sustain dollar supply at the retail end of the market.

The Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, together with other initiatives like the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme and other packages for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), are holding on significantly in the drive to boost the economy and shield it from perceived volatilities in the international economy that is dragging back most emerging markets.

The bank has committed over N23 billion to the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, with active participation across 14 states of the Federation. In Kebbi State, over 78,000 smallholders are now cultivating about 100,000 hectares of rice farms. It is worthy of note that before the policy intervention of the CBN, Nigeria was consuming about 6.1 million tonnes annually, most of it imported and was producing less than 2.5 million metric tonnes. This has been significantly reversed just as the apex bank remains committed to do more with some identified crops such as rice, maize, sorghum, tomatoes, cassava, cocoa, cotton, dairy and groundnut. One of the reasons the CBN ventured into development banking was to minimise the effects of high interest rates on customers.

The bank has intervened through various developmental programmes, all at single digit interest rates, disbursing N393 billion in 490 projects under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme, N79.8 billion under the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) Scheme, and N236.4 billion under the Power and Aviation Intervention Fund with 6.7 million direct jobs and a lot more indirect jobs. These policy decisions, analysts said have kept the naira stable at both the official and parallel market. The naira at the weekend strengthened at N358 to dollar at the parallel market and has remained at N360 to dollar at the official market.

I&E Forex Window

The coming of Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) Forex window and continued dollar/Yuan interventions have ensured that forex demand at the retail end of the market are met.In the first two weeks of introducing I&E Foreign Exchange Window, forex speculators lost over N500 million, as the CBN sustained its dollar interventions in the interbank market. The losses grew to over N1 billion in the first two months after more foreigners began to use the window, and its impact on the forex market deepened.

The economy has also enjoyed major inflow of forex in recent months with over $51 billion recorded in the I&E FX Window. The I&E Forex window, also called willing-buyer willing-seller window, allows foreign investors to find buyers for their dollars at a mutually-agreed price. The CBN controls about 15 per cent of all the transactions carried out in the window.As it stands now, many forex users will have no problem accessing forex for his holidays trips given the level of stability and liquidity existing in the foreign exchange market.

The CBN recently injected $340 million into the interbank retail Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS). This is in addition to the sale of 69 million Chinese Yuan (CNY) in the spot and short tenored forwards.

According to its Acting Director, Corporate Communications, Isaac Okorafor, the sales in the Chinese Yuan were through a combination of spot and 15-day tenors. He said the exercise, in line with its guidelines, were for the payment of Renminbi denominated Letters of Credit for agriculture as well as raw materials and machinery.

Okorafor also explained that the requests attended to were bids received from authorised dealers, adding that Renminbi’s availability was sure to ease pressure on the Nigerian foreign exchange market.

Afrinvest West Africa Limited Managing Director Ike Chioke said the jump in foreign inflows was not a surprise given the development in the forex market, particularly the launch of the I&E forex window in April.”The knock-on effects of strong portfolio flows are already evident in performance of the domestic equities market which has historically been driven by foreign portfolio investors,” he said. Chioke said a strong positive correlation exists between the exchange rate and crude oil price in the country.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Commodities

Nigeria Spends $2.13bn on Food Imports in 2023

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Commodities Exchange

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disbursed $2.13 billion for food imports in 2023.

This disclosure raises concerns about the nation’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.

Despite being touted as the “food basket of Africa,” Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported food commodities.

The CBN’s quarterly statistics revealed a consistent demand for foreign currencies for food imports throughout the year.

The significant forex release for food imports stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Nigerian government to boost local agricultural production and reduce dependence on imports.

Factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, and climate change have hindered progress in the agricultural sector, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global food prices.

A breakdown of the disbursements shows varying amounts allocated each month, with notable spikes observed in March and November.

Despite initiatives aimed at promoting local production, including the ban on food imports by the Federal Government, the nation’s appetite for foreign food products remains unabated.

The rise in food prices has also been a cause for concern, with the average price of imported food commodities reaching a 34% increase between April 2023 and April 2024.

This surge in prices has contributed to food inflation in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to global market dynamics.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on food imports poses significant risks to its economy and food security.

Despite efforts to promote local production, challenges such as insecurity and inadequate infrastructure continue to impede progress in the agricultural sector.

Commenting on the issue, Kabir Ibrahim, the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has made strides in reducing its dependence on certain food items but expressed concern over the increasing trend in food imports.

He highlighted the challenges faced by farmers, including insecurity and flooding, which have affected food production and contributed to the rising import bill.

Yusuf Muda, the Managing Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized the need for accurate data to assess Nigeria’s food import dependency accurately.

He called for a comprehensive analysis of the types of food imported and their contribution to the nation’s food consumption.

As Nigeria grapples with the challenges of food security and economic stability, addressing the root causes of its reliance on food imports remains a critical priority.

Efforts to strengthen the agricultural sector, improve infrastructure, and mitigate climate change impacts are essential for achieving long-term food security and economic resilience.

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Crude Oil

NNPCL CEO Optimistic as Nigeria’s Oil Production Edges Closer to 1.7mbpd

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Crude Oil

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), has expressed optimism as the nation’s oil production approaches 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Kyari’s positive outlook comes amidst ongoing efforts to address security challenges and enhance infrastructure crucial for oil production and distribution.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ engagement between the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and NNPCL in Lagos, Kyari highlighted the significance of combating insecurity in the oil and gas sector to facilitate increased production.

Kyari said there is a need for substantial improvements in infrastructure to support oil production.

He noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production has been hampered by pipeline vandalism, prompting alternative transportation methods like barging and trucking of petroleum products, which incur additional costs and logistical challenges.

Despite these challenges, Kyari revealed that Nigeria’s oil production is steadily rising, presently approaching 1.7mbpd.

He attributed this progress to ongoing efforts to combat pipeline vandalism and enhance infrastructure resilience.

Kyari stressed the importance of taking control of critical infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted oil production and distribution.

One of the key projects highlighted by Kyari is the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, which plays a crucial role in enhancing gas supply infrastructure.

He noted that completing the final phase of the AKK pipeline, particularly the 2.7 km river crossing, would facilitate the flow of gas from the eastern to the western regions of Nigeria, supporting industrial growth and energy security.

Addressing industry stakeholders, including NAPE representatives, Kyari reiterated the importance of collaboration in advancing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He emphasized the need for technical training, data availability, and policy incentives to drive innovation and growth in the industry.

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Commodities

Nigeria to Achieve Fuel Independence Next Month, Says Dangote Refinery

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Dangote Refinery

Aliko Dangote, the Chairman of the Dangote Group and Africa’s wealthiest individual has announced that Nigeria is poised to attain fuel independence by next month.

Dangote made this assertion during his participation as a panelist at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit held in Kigali.

The announcement comes as a result of the Dangote Refinery’s ambitious plan, which aims to eliminate the need for Nigeria to import premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, within the next four to five weeks.

According to Dangote, the refinery already operational in supplying diesel and aviation fuel within Nigeria, possesses the capacity to fulfill the diesel and petrol requirements of West Africa and cater to the aviation fuel demands of the entire African continent.

Dangote expressed unwavering confidence in the refinery’s capabilities, stating, “Right now, Nigeria has no cause to import anything apart from gasoline and by sometime in June, within the next four or five weeks, Nigeria shouldn’t import anything like gasoline; not one drop of a litre.”

He said the refinery is committed to ensuring self-sufficiency in the continent’s energy needs, highlighting its capacity to significantly reduce or eliminate the need for fuel imports.

The Dangote Refinery’s accomplishment marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for energy independence. With the refinery’s robust infrastructure and advanced technology, Nigeria is poised to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products, bolstering its economic stability and reducing its reliance on foreign imports.

Dangote’s remarks underscored the transformative potential of the refinery, not only for Nigeria but for the entire African continent.

He emphasized the refinery’s role in fostering regional energy security, asserting, “We have enough gasoline to give to at least the entire West Africa, diesel to give to West Africa and Central Africa. We have enough aviation fuel to give to the entire continent and also export some to Brazil and Mexico.”

Dangote further outlined the refinery’s broader vision for Africa’s economic advancement and detailed plans to expand its production capacity and diversify its product range.

He highlighted initiatives aimed at promoting self-sufficiency across various sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing, with the ultimate goal of reducing Africa’s dependence on imports and creating sustainable economic growth.

Dangote’s vision for a self-reliant Africa resonates with his long-standing commitment to investing in the continent’s development.

He concluded his remarks by reiterating the refinery’s mission to transform Africa’s energy landscape and drive socio-economic progress across the region.

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