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FMDQ: Investors Splash N17.23trn on Fixed Income, Currency Instruments in June

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FMDQ Group - Investors King
  • FMDQ: Investors Splash N17.23trn on Fixed Income, Currency Instruments in June

Investors, who earn a living from short-and medium-term instruments offered in the money market, increased their spending by 20.53 per cent in June as total investments in the Fixed Income and Currency (FIC) markets rose to N17.23trillion.

“Transaction turnover in the markets for the month ended June 30, 2018 amounted to N17.23trillion, a 20.53 per cent (N2.93trillion) increase from the value recorded in May and a 36.49 percent (N4.61trillion) increase year –on- year(YoY),”a statement from FMDQ OTC revealed.

The treasury bills and FX segments jointly accounted for 79.35 per cent of total turnover in the FIC market in June, representing a marginal increase of 3.44 percentage points from the 75.91 per cent recorded in May. FX market turnover recorded the highest month-on-month increase, growing by 34.50 percent (N1.79trillion), while unsecured placement/takings turnover recorded the highest month-on-month (MoM) decrease, falling by 42.54 percent (N0.03trillion).

Total FX market turnover in the review month was $19.80billion, a 34.04 percent ($5.03billion) increase from the turnover recorded in May ($14.77billion). Turnover at the Investors & Exporters (I&E) FX Window in June was $3.93billion, representing a 38.59 percent ($2.47billion) MoM decrease from the value recorded in May ($6.40billion), and resulting in a decrease in its contribution to the total FX market turnover to 19.85per cent from 43.33per cent in May. However, the total turnover at the I&E FX Window for half year -ended June 2018, increased to $30.28billion.

Analysis of FX turnover by trade type showed that turnover increased across all trade types, with Inter- Member trades recording the highest relative MoM growth in turnover, increasing by 82.65per cent ($1.35billion), while Member-Clients trades recorded the highest nominal MoM growth in turnover, increasing by $2.52billion (28.97 per cent). Member-CBN trades also recorded a MoM increase in turnover by 26.11 per cent ($1.16billion).

In terms of contribution to total FX turnover, Inter-Member trades contributed 15.05 per cent to total FX turnover in June, a 4.01ppts increase from the 11.04 per cent contribution recorded in May. Member-Client and Member- CBN trades both contributed 56.62 per cent and 28.28 per cent to total FX turnover in June, decreasing from 58.90 per cent and 30.06percent in May respectively

Analysis of FX turnover by product type showed that turnover in FX Spot and Derivatives increased MoM in line with the trend in total FX turnover, with both increasing by 29.82per cent and 46.60per cent respectively.

FX Spot remained the main driver of total FX turnover, with a MoM increase by $2.80billion (29.70 per cent), while FX Derivatives recorded a MoM increase of $2.25billion (41.59 per cent) driven mainly by FX Futures turnover which increased MoM by $2.39billion (292.68 per cent).

In June, the 24th naira-settled OTC FX Futures contract (NGUS JUN 27, 2018) with a contract size of $638.87million, matured and was settled, whilst a new $1.00billion 12-month contract (NGUS JUN 26, 2019) was offered by the CBN at $/N362.60.

Also, in June, the naira depreciated at the I&E FX Window, losing N0.35 to close at $/N361.32 (from $/N360.97 as at May 31, 2018). The depreciation of the naira at the I&E FX Window resulted in a lower spread of N0.68 between the $/N rate at the I&E FX Window and the parallel market, due to the appreciation of the Naira by N1.00 at the parallel market in June to close at $/N362.00 (from $/N363.00 as at May 31, 2018). The CBN Official Spot rate appreciated by N0.20 to close at $/N305.75 (from $/N305.95 as at May 31, 2018)

The total turnover in the fixed income market was N7.85trillion in June, representing a 19.73 per cent (N1.29trn) MoM increase in turnover. The increase in turnover was driven mainly by an 18.13per cent (N1.02trillion) MoM increase in T.bills turnover, as it remained the major driver of liquidity in the fixed income market, accounting for 84.95per cent of the total fixed income market turnover, albeit 1.15 percentage points lower than its contribution in May.

Total T.bills outstanding as at June 30, 2018 stood at N13.76trillion, representing a 1.75 per cent (N0.24trillion) MoM decline, driven by a net redemption of T.bills in the month of June. Conversely, total FGN Bonds outstanding increased marginally by 0.41 percent (N0.03trillion ) MoM to close at N7.83trillion, suggesting the FGN refinanced some of its short-term obligations with longer term FGN Bonds while increasing cash liquidity in the market

Trading intensity in the T.bills and FGN Bonds markets increased from 0.41 and 0.11 in May, to 0.48 and 0.15 in June respectively, while trading intensity for T.bills and FGN Bonds in first half of 2018 were 2.67 and 0.71, compared to 3.75 and 0.79 in H1 2017 respectively. T.bills within the 6-12 months maturity remained the most actively traded, accounting for 28.28 percent of the total fixed income market turnover in June, despite decreasing from the 37.42 percent contribution reported in May.

Turnover recorded in the secured money market (i.e. Repos/Buy-Backs) was N2.32trillion for June, representing a 4.70 per cent (N0.11trillion) MoM decrease from the value recorded in May (N2.44trillion), and a YoY decrease of 33.98 per cent in June, compared to the 6.98 per cent YoY decrease recorded in May.

Similarly, unsecured placements/takings closed the month with a turnover of N42.66billion, representing a 42.54 percent (N31.59billion) MoM decrease on the turnover recorded in May (N74.25billion), and a YoY decrease of 68.23per cent (N91.64billion).

Average O/N7 NIBOR8 decreased by 11.12ppts to close at 11.65 per cent in June from 22.77 per cent reported for May, suggesting an increase in liquidity in the inter-bank market, possibly driven by injection of cash in the market from the FGN’s activity in the fixed income market during the month.

Total number of executed trades reported on the E-Bond Trading System in June was 13,101, representing a MoM decline of 5,969 in the number of executed trades, as total executed trades in T.bills and FGN bonds declined by 5,162 (31.15 per cent) and 807 (32.32 per cent) respectively in June 2018.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Energy

Presidency Set to Roll Out 2,700 CNG-Powered Vehicles Ahead of Tinubu’s Anniversary

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BOC Gases Nigeria Plc - Investors King

In a significant move toward a greener and more sustainable future for Nigeria’s transportation sector, the Presidency has announced plans to launch approximately 2,700 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered buses and tricycles before May 29, President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office.

The ambitious initiative, spearheaded by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, aims to address pressing issues of rising fuel costs, environmental pollution, and the need for more efficient mass transit options across the country.

With the impending rollout, Nigeria is poised to take significant strides towards joining the league of nations that have embraced CNG as a viable alternative fuel source for public transportation.

The move comes as part of the Presidential CNG Initiative, launched by President Tinubu in October 2023, shortly after the removal of petrol subsidy.

The Presidential CNG Initiative, designed to deliver cheaper, safer, and more climate-friendly energy options, has been allocated a substantial budget of N100 billion from the palliative budget.

This funding will support the purchase of 5,500 CNG vehicles, including buses and tricycles, along with 100 electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits.

Also, the initiative encompasses the development of CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide, ensuring that the infrastructure is in place to support the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Mr. Onanuga emphasized that all necessary preparations have been made for the delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration.

Approximately 2,500 tricycles are expected to be ready before May 29, 2024, with plans to deliver 200 units of buses within the same timeframe.

The deployment of CNG buses and tricycles marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s energy transition journey.

It not only reduces the country’s dependence on traditional fossil fuels but also contributes to mitigating environmental pollution and improving air quality in urban centers.

In addition to the rollout of CNG vehicles, the initiative includes partnerships with the private sector to establish conversion workshops and refueling sites across 18 states before the end of 2024.

These efforts underscore the collaborative approach taken by the government and industry stakeholders to facilitate the adoption of CNG technology and drive sustainable growth in the transportation sector.

As Nigeria prepares to celebrate President Tinubu’s first year in office, the rollout of 2,700 CNG-powered vehicles stands as a testament to the government’s commitment to fostering innovation, promoting environmental stewardship, and improving the lives of its citizens through transformative initiatives in the energy sector.

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Commodities

IPMAN Anticipates Further Drop in Diesel Price to N700/Litre

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The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) is looking forward to another significant drop in the price of diesel, with expectations set on a target of N700 per litre.

This anticipation follows recent reductions initiated by the Dangote refinery, which has already seen the price of diesel decrease from over N1,200 to N1,000 per litre.

Hammed Fashola, the National Vice President of IPMAN, expressed this optimism on Wednesday, highlighting the association’s appreciation for the efforts made by the Dangote refinery to make diesel more affordable for consumers.

In an interview, Fashola reiterated IPMAN’s belief that the price of diesel could continue to decrease, especially with the recent rebound of the naira against the dollar.

Fashola stated the removal of various challenges associated with imported diesel, such as shipment costs, customs duties, and taxes, as significant factors contributing to the potential reduction in price.

With diesel now being produced locally, these obstacles have been eliminated, paving the way for lower costs for consumers.

“We still expect that diesel will still come down more. Because if you look at the dollar rate to the naira now, the currency is doing well against the dollar. The exchange rate now is almost N1,000 on the black market. We still expect that the dollar will come down more,” Fashola stated.

The IPMAN boss highlighted the collective support for Dangote and emphasized the importance of making diesel affordable for all citizens. He expressed gratitude for the recent price cuts initiated by the refinery and reiterated the association’s hopes for further reductions to benefit consumers across Nigeria.

Dangote Refinery, which began selling diesel about two weeks ago, has been instrumental in driving down prices. Initially, diesel was priced at N1,600 per litre, but it has since been reduced to N1,000 per litre.

This reduction has been welcomed by both consumers and industry experts, who see it as a positive step towards economic relief and increased economic activities.

Analysts have also weighed in on the potential benefits of lower diesel prices. Economist Femi Oladele highlighted the potential for reduced production costs, which could lead to lower prices for goods and services.

Also, savings in foreign exchange could bolster the nation’s reserves, contributing to economic stability.

Jonathan Thomas, an analyst at Sankore Investment Limited, emphasized the broader impact of fuel prices on the economy.

Lower diesel prices not only benefit consumers but also impact the total cost of production, thereby influencing the general price level of goods and services.

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Crude Oil

Oil Markets Hold Breath as Iran-Israel Tensions Mount

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Amidst escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, the global oil markets find itself in a precarious position, with traders and investors anxiously watching for potential ramifications on prices and supply dynamics.

The latest developments have cast a shadow of uncertainty over the already volatile energy sector, prompting a flurry of activity and speculation among industry players.

Last week marked a downturn for oil as Brent crude experienced its first back-to-back weekly decline of the year, slipping below $87 a barrel. This decline, coupled with the largest drop since early February, reflects the unease permeating through the market as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reach a fever pitch.

The catalyst for this downturn stems from a series of events that unfolded in the region.

Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile strike on Israel sent shockwaves through the international community, triggering a swift response from Israeli authorities.

However, conflicting reports emerged regarding the severity of Israel’s retaliation, leaving traders grappling with uncertainty over the potential escalation of hostilities.

In response to the heightened tensions, the US House of Representatives passed new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector, signaling a firm stance against the Islamic Republic’s aggressive actions.

With the measure now poised for Senate approval, the specter of further economic pressure on Iran looms large, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, who commented on the surprising resilience of oil prices in the face of heightened risk and tension in the Middle East, noted that while the market remains vigilant, it appears unfazed by the current geopolitical climate, choosing instead to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of US sanctions on Iranian oil flows.

Despite the prevailing sense of uncertainty, there are signs of bullish sentiment among money managers, who are increasingly positioning themselves to capitalize on any potential spikes in oil prices.

Oil call options, which profit from price increases, are trading at a premium over puts, indicating a belief among investors that the market could tilt in favor of higher prices amidst geopolitical turmoil.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to a flurry of upcoming events that could further shape the trajectory of oil markets.

Investors eagerly await a slew of economic data from the United States, including key indicators such as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, which will provide valuable insights into the future path of monetary policy.

Additionally, earnings reports from major oil companies, including TotalEnergies SE, Chevron Corp., and Exxon Mobil Corp., are set to be released this week.

These reports will offer a glimpse into the financial health of the industry giants and shed light on their production growth strategies amid a backdrop of geopolitical instability.

As tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, the oil markets remain on edge, with every development closely scrutinized for its potential impact on prices and global energy security.

In this climate of uncertainty, traders and investors alike brace themselves for the next twist in this geopolitical saga, mindful of the far-reaching implications for the world’s most vital commodity.

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