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At last, National Assembly Passes N9.12tn Budget

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  • At last, National Assembly Passes N9.12tn Budget

The National Assembly eventually passed the 2018 budget on Wednesday, six months after President Muhammadu Buhari submitted the estimates to both chambers of the assembly.

The President had on November 7, 2017 submitted a proposal of N8.612tn for the 2018 fiscal year, but lawmakers on Wednesday passed N9.12tn as the budget, increasing it by N508bn.

From the passed budget, the Federal Government will spend N2.2tn to service debts, with N1.75tn to be spent on domestic debts, and N254.07bn on foreign debt service, while the sum of N190bn is appropriated as “sinking fund for retiring maturing debs.”

In 2017, debt servicing gulped N2.014tn.

The crude oil benchmark price for the budget also changed from $45 proposed by the Executive to $51.

The additional N508bn to the budget size was reflected in the sectoral allocations to government’s Ministries, Departments and Agencies.

For example, in Buhari’s estimates, the recurrent expenditure was captured as N3.494tn, but on Wednesday, the legislators approved N3.515tn as recurrent expenditure. Similarly, the development fund for capital expenditure was raised to N2.869tn from N2.652tn.

The provision for statutory transfers also rose to N530.421bn from N456bn.

For sectoral allocations, the Ministry of Power, Works and Housing got the highest vote of N714.6bn for recurrent and capital expenditure instead of Buhari’s total of N555.88bn.

Out of the N714.6bn, the ministry received N682.9bn for capital projects, leaving the balance of N31.7bn for recurrent spending.

The Ministry of Interior followed closely with a combined capital and recurrent vote of N576bn. The third largest sectoral allocation went to the Ministry of Defence, which got N575.6bn. This provision was aside from other votes for the military like the N78bn for the ‘Operation Lafiya Dole’.

The Ministry of Education got N541.2bn for both capital and recurrent expenditure, up from the N496.9bn proposed by the President.

The National Assembly too benefitted from the increase in allocations, raising its vote from N125bn to N139.5bn.

However, the naira/dollar exchange rate was retained at N305/$1, while the daily crude oil production was also retained at 2.3 million barrels.

The Chairman, House Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Mr. Abdulrazak Namdas, gave additional information on the changes made to the budget soon after the lawmakers rose on Wednesday.

Namdas said the new crude oil benchmark price was approved in order to reduce the overall deficit by N50.88bn and to make additional allocation of N106.5bn to the power, works and housing ministry.

He stated that health and security sectors got additional N57.1bn and N46.7bn, respectively.

“We put N15.7bn, for example, for the 12 new universities and meal subsidy for unity schools. Also, the judiciary received N10bn, while the Niger Delta Development Commission got N44bn, among others,” Namdas said.

The budget by the National Assembly, however, did not include the $496m fund for the purchase of 12 Super Tucano aircraft from the United States for which President Buhari had sought anticipatory approval from the legislature.

The $496m was taken from the $1bn already approved by the Federal Executive Council for security purposes.

The lawmakers, who had declared the subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) being funded by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation as illegal, asked Buhari to forward a supplementary budget to include the arms and subsidy funds.

The Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations, Senator Danjuma Goje, who presented the report on the budget, stated that Buhari’s request for the aircraft was not included in the budget due to the amount of money involved.

“Don’t forget that the President wrote to this chamber requesting that it should be included in the budget. But we did not because of the size of the amount. It should come as a supplementary budget,” he said.

The report said the additional N508bn was based on the agreement between the executive and the legislature due to the increase in the price of crude oil.

It read in part, “(The) special intervention (is) as a result of increase in oil price benchmark. After close consultation with the executive, the increase in oil price benchmark was applied in the following critical sectors of the economy.

“Reduction of deficit, N50.88bn; security, N46.72bn; health, N57.15bn; power, works and housing, N106.50bn; education, particularly for the infrastructure for the 12 newly established universities and meal subsidy in unity schools, N15.70bn; judiciary, N10bn; and Niger Delta Development Commission, N44.20bn.”

The President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, in his remarks, asked the executive to present a supplementary budget that would capture areas not covered in the passed budget.

Saraki said, “For me, today is a very happy day for those of us who are from the medical profession, those serving and those who are not serving. I want to, on behalf of all practising doctors – not native doctors – thank the entire National Assembly for this one per cent of the budget (voted) towards primary health care provision. This will go a long way in addressing our health issues.

“As we all know today, Nigeria accounts for 10 per cent of the world’s maternal mortality, nine per cent for child mortality, and about eight per cent for infant mortality. This is not where we should be as a country. And I think what we have done today is to open a new page that enables our people to be much healthier and stronger.”

He added, “In the area that we could not address, which is the issue of fuel subsidy, I want to make an appeal again that the executive needs to look into this for the interest of transparency, where an expenditure close to over N1tn must be captured in the budget. And when the supplementary (budget) comes, the executive should do something about this area. It is an important issue we must address.

“In doing that, we must appreciate now that the crude oil price is close to $80 (per barrel) and a lot of Nigerians are expecting to see our Excess Crude Account to be on the rise. But if money is being used for subsidy, at the end of the day, we will have it difficult to explain. That is why it is important that we capture this subsidy into the budget.”

Meanwhile, finance and economic experts have said that the passage of the budget by the National Assembly will boost investors’ confidence in the economy.

The Head, Banking and Finance Department, Nasarawa State University, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, said during a telephone interview with one of our correspondents that the delay in the passage would affect the full implementation of the capital component of the budget, adding that it would in the short term provide the much needed direction for the economy.

He stated, “It’s a welcome development because it is better late than never. We are likely going to see an upsurge in economic activities and it’s going to facilitate the pace of economic recovery now that the budget has been passed.

“The expectation is that the President will assent to it and stop further delay, because the amendments that were made by the National Assembly are justified because the assumptions sent by the executive are no longer realistic.

“So, we expect that economic activities can commence, particularly in the capital market. Activities in the capital market, most especially the equity segment of the market, have been down as a result of uncertainties caused by the delay in the budget passage. Now that the budget has been passed, the market will react positively because we now have a short-term direction.”

Uwaleke added, “It is going to reduce uncertainty and boost investors’ confidence in the economy; but going forward, we should avoid a situation where it will take over six months for the budget to be passed.

“We should try to get the budget started so that implementation can commence. As it is, it is difficult to talk about the success rate of implementation, because you can’t expect that the budget will be implemented 100 per cent, particularly the capital component, as the budget is coming rather late.”

In his comments, a former Managing Director, Unity Bank Plc, Mr. Rislanudeen Mohammed, said that the Federal Government might not be able to fully implement the capital component of the budget owing to the delay in its passage.

He said while the overhead, personnel and debt service components would be fully implemented, the timing of the budget passage would not make it effective for the capital votes to be implemented.

Mohammed stated, “The government cannot implement the budget effectively. What will happen is that the recurrent expenditure will be fully implemented, the statutory transfers will also be fully implemented, but the capital expenditure will suffer because there will be no time.

“What they can implement with the delayed budget is about 40 per or 50 per cent of capital votes, and this is not good for the economy, because it is the capital projects that will have direct effect on the livelihood of Nigerians. Politics has overtaken economics.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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Economy

IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

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In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

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Economy

IMF Warns of Challenges as Nigeria’s Economic Growth Barely Matches Population Expansion

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Nigeria’s growth prospects will barely exceed its population expansion despite recent economic reforms.

Axel Schimmelpfennig, the IMF’s mission chief to Nigeria, who explained the risks to the nation’s economic outlook during a virtual briefing, acknowledged the strides made in implementing tough economic reforms but stressed that significant challenges persist.

The IMF reaffirmed its forecast of 3.3% economic growth for Nigeria in the current year, slightly up from 2.9% in 2023.

However, Schimmelpfennig revealed that this growth rate merely surpasses population dynamics and signaled a need for accelerated progress to enhance living standards significantly.

While Nigeria has received commendation for measures such as abolishing fuel subsidies and reforming the foreign-exchange regime under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, these reforms have not come without costs.

The drastic depreciation of the naira by 65% has fueled inflation to its highest level in nearly three decades, exacerbating the cost of living for many Nigerians.

The IMF anticipates a moderation of Nigeria’s annual inflation rate to 24% by the year’s end, down from the current 33.2% recorded in March.

However, the organization cautioned that substantial challenges persist, particularly in addressing acute food insecurity affecting millions of Nigerians with up to 19 million categorized as food insecure and a poverty rate of 46% in 2023.

Moreover, the IMF emphasized the importance of maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to curb inflation, preserve exchange rate flexibility, and bolster reserves.

It raised concerns about proposed amendments to the law governing the central bank, fearing that such changes could undermine its autonomy and weaken the institutional framework.

Looking ahead, Nigeria faces several risks, including potential shocks to agriculture and global food prices, which could exacerbate food insecurity.

Also, any decline in oil production would not only impact economic growth but also strain government finances, trade, and inflationary pressures.

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