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Power: N1tn Debt Threatens NBET Existence

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Electricity - Investors King
  • Power: N1tn Debt Threatens NBET Existence

The Federal Government is pleading with power distribution companies to make appropriate remittances for the electricity supplied to them in order to avoid the collapse of the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company.

The country has 11 power distribution companies and they get the electricity that they distribute to customers from power generation companies by purchasing it through the NBET.

The NBET, popularly referred to as the bulk trader, is the bulk power trading arm of the sector collecting funds from electricity distributors to pay the generation firms.

But remittances from the Discos have been persistently poor, a development which the Federal Government notes, may kill the NBET if not addressed.

This is coming as the Federal Government is planning to start naming and shaming power infrastructure vandals as well as communities that support vandalism.

The Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, told the power distributors at the recent 26th meeting with operators in the sector that they would have no business if the NBET could not pay its bills to the Gencos, because the bulk of the Discos’ power was coming from the bulk trader.

Fashola appealed to the Discos to do their best to ensure that the NBET did not die as it was the goose that lays the golden egg, according to minutes of the meeting, which was just put together in preparation for the next edition of the meeting holding today (Monday).

Operators in the sector often complain that power distributors persistently remit far below what is required of them by the bulk trader.

For instance, on March 18, 2018, media reported that the Discos got a total invoice of N44.85bn for the quantum of electricity they received in January this year, but the firms remitted only N2.7bn.

Documents obtained from the NBET on remittances by the Discos for power received in January showed that the firms had a combined remittance of 6.04 per cent for the month.

The bulk trader in its summary of Discos’ and Gencos’ invoices and payments for January 2018 cycle stated that “the total amount invoiced to the Discos for the January 2018 cycle was N44.85bn. Total amount received from the Discos for the January 2018 cycle was N2.7bn (6.04 per cent).”

Also, on March 20, this year, the media reported that the Executive Secretary, Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr. Joy Ogaji, explained that the Gencos were owed about N1tn by the power market, while the power producers owe gas suppliers half of that amount.

About 80 per cent of the electricity generated in the country is from gas-fired power plants, with hydro plants contributing the rest.

“We are owed about N1tn by the electricity market. About half of it is owed to gas companies, because it is as we are paid that we pay them (gas suppliers). And in some cases, we even took loans to pay some of them, because if you don’t pay, you don’t get gas,” Ogaji had stated.

The executive secretary said the NBET was established with the mandate that it would pay the Gencos 100 per cent, “but it has not paid the generation companies 100 per cent. What the NBET has kept telling us is that the Discos are not paying, and the Discos say that consumers are not paying.”

“From the beginning in 2013 till now, the Gencos have not pushed the government like this; we have been enduring, taking loans. But now, even the banks are not giving us loans to buy gas and generate electricity. So, we are in a conundrum,” Ogaji added.

Speaking at the 26th sectoral meeting, Fashola, who chaired the event, stated that while the government continued to actively play its roles in the sector through the NBET, the Transmission Company of Nigeria and the Niger Delta Power Holding Company, the Discos should on their own part improve on the quality and capacity of their networks to stimulate consumers’ willingness to pay for services rendered.

He implored the Discos to improve on their revenue collection efficiencies without extortion through estimated billings and advised them to also make remittances in accordance with the agreement they signed with the NBET.

Fashola reiterated the need for the Discos to take ownership of the Meter Asset Provider Regulation to improve the supply of meters to consumers as well as increase their response time in resolving consumer complaints in a business-like manner.

The indebtedness to the Gencos, among other concerns, made the power generators to drag the government to court two months ago.

The media had reported in March that some Gencos had dragged the government before the Federal High Court in Abuja over what they termed discriminatory practices against their interests and those of gas suppliers.

The firms also accused the Federal Government of conferring preferential treatment on Azura Power West Africa Limited and Accugas Limited at their own expense.

But the NBET insisted at the last operators’ meeting that it could not pay the Gencos on behalf of the Federal Government because it had no funds.

In its presentation on market performance at the April meeting, the bulk trader stated that it received only 25.6 per cent payment from the Discos for the energy they received from the Gencos in the February cycle.

It also stated that the NBET received late payments from the January cycle amounting to 21.08 per cent of the February invoice, bringing the total payment for February to 46.7 per cent.

The bulk trader promised that the total amount received from the Discos would be paid to the Gencos in the period under review before their respective due dates.

Similarly, the Market Operator, in its report at the meeting, stated that the Discos received 84.89 per cent of the total energy sent out by the Gencos, while international customers and other direct customers received 7.53 per cent in the month of February.

The Discos, according to the MO, remitted only 36.55 per cent of their invoices, while a shortfall of 63.45 per cent on remittances by the power distributors on service providers’ charges was recorded.

On plans to name and shame vandals, Fashola told the Niger Delta Power Holding Company to compile a list of all its completed as well as vandalised projects.

He suggested that a name and shame campaign would go a long way in curbing the nefarious activities of vandals and communities, which support them in the future.

The meeting directed the NDPHC to forward the list of all its completed as well as vandalised projects to the ministry through the Permanent Secretary for proper articulation to enable the FMPWH to carry out a name and shame campaign on vandals and communities that support their activities.

On why the Discos were not making appropriate remittances, the firms complained that power users were not making adequate payments, a development that made it tough for the electricity distributors to meet their obligations to the NBET.

The Discos recently stated that members of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria owed them about N30bn as unpaid electricity bills.

According to the power firms, the debt is among the many other liquidity challenges that have impacted negatively on the sector, particularly on the distribution arm of the industry.

They noted that the debt accumulated after a court injunction mandated the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission not to implement the Multi Year Tariff Order in 2015, which would have led to an upward review of tariffs.

“There are some things that probably have gone beyond the control of the Discos. It will interest you to know that the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria went to court when the 2015 MYTO 2.0 came in. And right now, MAN is owing the Discos an average of about N30bn,” the Chief Commercial Officer, Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company, Deolu Ijose, said at an event in Abuja.

On July 13, 2016, the media reported that a Federal High Court in Lagos entered a judgement against NERC and the electricity distribution companies in a suit opposing the Federal Government’s bid to increase electricity tariff.

Justice Mohammed Idris had declared as null and void any hike in electricity tariff following an announcement of the proposed increase by the then Chairman of NERC, Dr. Sam Amadi.

The court had since May 28, 2015 restrained NERC from giving effect to the proposed hike pending the determination of the suit filed against the move.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Goldman Sachs Urges Bold Rate Hike as Naira Weakens and Inflation Soars

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

As Nigeria grapples with soaring inflation and a faltering naira, Goldman Sachs is calling for a substantial increase in interest rates to stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence.

The global investment bank’s recommendation comes ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) key monetary policy decision, set to be announced on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs economists, including Andrew Matheny, argue that incremental rate adjustments will not be sufficient to address the country’s deepening economic challenges.

“Another 50 or 100 basis points is certainly not going to move the needle in the eyes of an investor,” Matheny stated. “Nigeria needs a bold, decisive move to curb inflation and regain investor trust.”

The CBN, under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is anticipated to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 27% in its upcoming meeting.

This would mark a continuation of the aggressive tightening campaign that began in May 2022, which has seen rates increase by 14.75 percentage points.

Despite this, inflation has remained stubbornly high, highlighting the need for more substantial measures.

The current economic landscape is marked by severe challenges. The naira’s depreciation has led to higher import costs, fueling inflation and eroding consumer purchasing power.

The CBN has attempted to ease the currency’s scarcity by selling dollars to local foreign exchange bureaus, but these efforts have yet to stabilize the naira significantly.

“Developments since the last meeting have definitely been hawkish,” noted Matheny. “The naira has weakened further, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The CBN’s policy needs to reflect this reality more aggressively.”

In response to the persistent inflation and naira weakness, analysts are urging the central bank to implement a more coherent strategy to manage the currency and inflation.

James Marshall of Promeritum Investment Management LLP suggested that the CBN should actively participate in the foreign exchange market to mitigate the naira’s volatility and restore market confidence.

“The central bank needs to be a more consistent and active participant in the forex market,” Marshall said. “A clear strategy to address the naira’s weakness is crucial for stabilizing the economy.”

The CBN’s decision will come as the country faces a critical period. With inflation expected to slow due to favorable comparisons with the previous year and new measures to reduce food costs, including a temporary import duty waiver on wheat and corn, there is hope that the economic situation may improve.

However, analysts anticipate that the CBN will need to implement one final rate hike to solidify inflation’s slowdown and restore positive real rates.

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Economy

Currency Drop Spurs Discount Dilemma in Cairo’s Markets

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Egyptian pound

Under Cairo’s scorching sun, the bustling streets reveal an unexpected twist in dramatic price drops on big-ticket items like cars and appliances.

Following March’s significant currency devaluation, prices for these goods have plunged, leaving consumers hesitant to make purchases amid hopes for even better deals.

Mohamed Yassin, a furniture store vendor, said “People just inquire about prices. They’re afraid to buy in case prices drop further.” This cautious consumer behavior is posing challenges for Egypt’s consumer-driven economy.

In March, Egyptian authorities devalued the pound by nearly 40% to stabilize an economy teetering on the edge. While such moves often lead to inflation spikes, Egypt’s case has been unusual.

Unlike other nations like Nigeria or Argentina, where costs soared post-devaluation, Egypt is witnessing falling prices for high-value items.

Previously inflated prices were driven by a black market in foreign currency, where importers secured dollars at exorbitant rates, passing costs onto consumers.

Now, with the pound stabilizing and foreign currency more accessible, retailers are struggling to sell inventory at pre-devaluation prices.

Despite price reductions, the overall consumer market remains sluggish. The automotive sector has seen a near 75% drop in sales compared to pre-crisis levels.

Major brands like Hyundai and Volkswagen have slashed prices by about a quarter, yet buyers remain cautious.

The economic strain is not limited to luxury items. Everyday expenses continue to rise, albeit more slowly, with anticipated hikes in electricity and fuel prices adding to the pressure.

Experts highlight a period of adjustment as both consumers and traders navigate the volatile exchange-rate environment. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of research at EFG Hermes, explains, “The market is taking time to absorb recent fluctuations.”

Meanwhile, businesses face declining sales, impacting their ability to manage operating costs. Yassin’s store has offered discounts of up to 50% yet remains quiet. “We’ve tried everything, but everyone is waiting,” he laments.

The devaluation has spurred a shift in economic dynamics. Inflation has eased, but the pace varies across sectors. Clothing and transportation costs are up, while food prices fluctuate.

With the phasing out of fuel subsidies and potential electricity price increases, Egyptians are bracing for further financial strain. The recent 300% rise in subsidized bread prices adds another layer of concern.

The situation underscores the balancing act between maintaining consumer confidence and attracting foreign investment.

Economists suggest potential stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates or increasing public spending, to boost demand.

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Economy

MPC Meeting on July 22-23 to Tackle Inflation as Rates Set to Rise Again

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Interbank rate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to convene on July 22-23, 2024, amid soaring inflation and economic challenges in Nigeria.

Led by Olayemi Cardoso, the committee has already increased interest rates three times this year, raising them by 750 basis points to 26.25 percent.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate climbed to 34.19 percent in June, driven by rising food prices. Despite these pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that inflation will moderate to around 21.40 percent by year-end.

Market analysts expect a further rate hike as the committee seeks to rein in inflation. Nabila Mohammed from Chapel Hill Denham anticipates a 50–75 basis point increase.

Similarly, Coronation Research forecasts a potential rise of 50 to 100 basis points, given the recent uptick in inflation.

The food inflation rate reached 40.87 percent in June, exacerbated by security issues in key agricultural regions.

Essential commodities such as millet, garri, and yams have seen significant price hikes, impacting household budgets and savings.

As the MPC meets, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release data on selected food prices for June, providing further insights into the inflationary trends affecting Nigerians.

The upcoming MPC meeting will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Nigeria’s monetary policy as the government grapples with economic instability.

The focus remains on balancing inflation control with economic growth to ensure stability in Africa’s largest economy.

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