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CBN to Cut Interest Rate Before Year-end

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  • CBN to Cut Interest Rate Before Year-end

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut the Monetary Policy Rate, also known as the benchmark interest rate, before the end of the year.

FocusEconomics, in its latest report, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Sub-Saharan Africa, noted that the MPC left the MPR and all other monetary policy parameters unchanged at its first meeting of the year which was held last year.

“As a result, the monetary policy rate remains at a record high of 14 per cent and the asymmetric corridor at plus 200 and minus 500 basis points around the monetary policy rate. In addition, the committee left the liquidity ratio unchanged at 30 per cent and the cash reserve ratio stable at 22.50 per cent.

“The bank’s decision to hold the monetary policy rate unchanged at a record high reflects stubbornly high inflation in Nigeria’s economy.”

The report noted that although inflation had eased somewhat since peaking at 18.7 per cent in January 2017, pressure from food prices along with rising energy prices had kept price pressures elevated and inflation remained well above the CBN’s target of six per cent to nine per cent.

FocusEconomics said, “Looking forward, the CBN struck a broadly neutral tone in its communique, mentioning that the positive trend seen in key macroeconomic indicators as a result of the tight stance should be allowed more time to fully manifest.

“However, inflation is forecast to retreat further over the coming months, and assuming the foreign exchange market continues to remain stable or exhibit positive tendencies, the bank’s preferences are likely to swing more towards a rate cut going forward.”

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for the May 21 and 23.

The report said, “All of FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the CBN to cut the monetary policy rate before the end of the year, with consensus for the rate to end 2018 at 12.11 per cent. In 2019, the panel sees the monetary policy rate ending the year at 11.75 per cent.

“The economy ended 2017 on a firmer note, with growth picking up to a two-year high. Activity is expected to have continued gaining steam in the first quarter of 2018, supported by higher oil prices and greater foreign exchange rate supply.

“Accordingly, recent economic data has pointed up, and the Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a record high in March. However, authorities have still not passed the 2018 budget, delaying its implementation and an expected boost in government spending.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2018 and clock in at 2.6 per cent, the report stated.

It said, “Higher oil prices, looser fiscal policy and improved FX allocation should support the economy’s momentum this year. That said, several challenges to growth still linger including exchange rate distortions, poor infrastructure and likely political tensions ahead of the February 2019 general elections. Next year, growth is seen increasing mildly to 3.1 per cent.”

According to FocusEconomics, growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is projected to gain momentum this year, thanks to firmer commodity prices.

FocusEconomics panelists see regional GDP expanding 3.5 per cent in 2018.

The report said, “While the economic panorama is improving, several weak spots remain, including high debt loads and large imbalances, which could threaten the region’s outlook. Next year, growth is seen accelerating to 3.7 per cent.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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