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Nigeria to Save N129.4bn on Wheat Importation in 2019

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wheat
  • Nigeria to Save N129.4bn on Wheat Importation in 2019

Nigeria may save $422.9m (N129.4bn) from importation of wheat next year, going by projections from farmers and other stakeholders that local production of the produce will increase to two million metric tonnes.

This is in line with the Federal Government’s Agricultural Promotion Policy, which aims to reduce wheat importation by 50 per cent this year.

The country currently imports 4.4 million metric tonnes of wheat at an average market price of $211.45/tonne.

After several interventions in the sector by both the private sector and the Federal Government, wheat production has increased from less than 200,000MT to 900,000MT.

“From the discussion I had with the Group Managing Director of Flour Mills Plc, Mr. Paul Gbededo, wheat production has increased to almost one million metric tonnes,” the Supply Chains Director, Honeywell Flour Mills, Mr. Rotimi Fadipe, said during the presentation of 50 threshers to wheat farmers by the Flour Millers Association of Nigeria.

In 2015, the Federal Government funded a research into wheat that led to the development of two new varieties, LACRI WHIT -5 and LACRI WHIT -6, by research institutes, universities, crop scientists and private seed companies.

These wheat varieties are high-yielding, have early maturity and better baking quality.

Under its Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, the Central Bank of Nigeria has also supported the sector by granting loans to farmers at single-digit interest rates.

The National President, Wheat Farmers Association of Nigeria, Alhaji Salim Mohammed, told our correspondent that farmers were working hard to further increase the production and had projected that with the right equipment and incentives, wheat production should reach two million metric tonnes between the year-end and 2019.

The sector is also seeing increasing private sector support. Just last week, the Flour Millers Association, comprising Dangote Flour Mills, Honeywell Flour Mills, Olam Grains and Flour Mill Nigeria Plc, donated 50 threshers, each valued at N1.4m, to the farmers to help boost the production of the crop.

The Group Managing Director, Dangote Flour Mills, Thabo Mabe, said the association was encouraging mechanised wheat production so as to bring about increased yield.

Local farmers are said to be battling rising production costs, which, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, have doubled in the last six months to $420 per tonne.

Mabe stated that with improved harvesting method, the costs could be reduced significantly.

He said, “With mechanised farming, the volume of wheat per hectare increases. When the volume of wheat you get per hectare increases, the yield goes up. When the yield goes up, the cost comes down and the consumers will be happy because the prices of bread can be reduced in a sustainable manner.

“The current unsustainable ways of ploughing and threshing is the reason why majority of the wheat in this country is imported. We are in the process of stopping this importation and driving Nigeria to self-sufficiency in wheat production.”

Mohammed confirmed that the challenge of wheat production was with the harvesting, which is mostly carried out manually.

He stated, “With manual harvesting, farmers beat out the wheat with their bare hands. In the process, there is huge waste as most of the crops will be lost. The process takes three weeks to one month and the yield is usually poor.

“But with mechanised harvesting, the process is faster, takes three days and the crop does not waste.”

The flour milling industry faced huge scarcity of wheat in 2016 when there was recession and scarcity of foreign exchange.

The scarcity was attributable to poor local yield and lack of new wheat varieties.

The leader, Wheat Chain, Lake Chad Research Institute, Zakari Turaki, told our correspondent that the institute did not receive any government funding for research in 2016 and so no new varieties were developed.

“We had planted 450,000 hectares in the past when there was funding and from each hectare, we got three tonnes,” Turaki said.

Firms had to devise means of getting supply by buying improved wheat seeds for farmers to plant so that they could buy the end-product back.

Many of them embarked on backward integration to cut down on the amount of dollars spent on importation, but despite these efforts, there is still a huge demand gap in the industry.

Gbededo told our correspondent that the situation caused stakeholders to look inwards at the possibility of growing more high-yielding wheat varieties locally.

“Whereas it was easier and cheaper to import in the past, the forex scarcity made us realise that with enough investment in local production, sourcing wheat locally could prove cheaper than importing,” he explained.

The flour millers’ body has embarked on an aggressive move to improve local production.

It went ahead to fund a research at the Lake Chad Agricultural Institute to the tune of N20m, aimed at creating improved wheat varieties that could grow well in the Nigerian climate.

The association distributed 3,000 bags of Norman and Attila variety seeds to farmers and also donated over 2,500 water pumps to them to aid in irrigation.

He said, “Our problem is building on the seed system. The seed companies run by the private sector are supposed to drive the development of seeds in the country.

“But in the past, they paid attention to maize and rice but not wheat. But now, we have brought in eight seed companies and they are going to join in the production of wheat seeds that are heat-tolerant and flood resistant. “

He added that the operators were targeting four million metric tonnes to meet the demand.

An increase in production of wheat will also translate to export revenue for the country as Nigerian wheat is said to be in high demand in other African countries that rely on the nation for grains.

Nigerian grains find their way to countries in the Sahel region, such as Niger, Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, which stated that cross- border trade in agricultural commodities had continued amidst insecurity across Nigeria.

“Exports are noted at 850,000 tonnes, an increase of more than 21 per cent over that of 2016/17 due to growing demand in neighbouring landlocked countries,” the agency stated in its report on the sector.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Goldman Sachs Urges Bold Rate Hike as Naira Weakens and Inflation Soars

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

As Nigeria grapples with soaring inflation and a faltering naira, Goldman Sachs is calling for a substantial increase in interest rates to stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence.

The global investment bank’s recommendation comes ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) key monetary policy decision, set to be announced on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs economists, including Andrew Matheny, argue that incremental rate adjustments will not be sufficient to address the country’s deepening economic challenges.

“Another 50 or 100 basis points is certainly not going to move the needle in the eyes of an investor,” Matheny stated. “Nigeria needs a bold, decisive move to curb inflation and regain investor trust.”

The CBN, under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is anticipated to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 27% in its upcoming meeting.

This would mark a continuation of the aggressive tightening campaign that began in May 2022, which has seen rates increase by 14.75 percentage points.

Despite this, inflation has remained stubbornly high, highlighting the need for more substantial measures.

The current economic landscape is marked by severe challenges. The naira’s depreciation has led to higher import costs, fueling inflation and eroding consumer purchasing power.

The CBN has attempted to ease the currency’s scarcity by selling dollars to local foreign exchange bureaus, but these efforts have yet to stabilize the naira significantly.

“Developments since the last meeting have definitely been hawkish,” noted Matheny. “The naira has weakened further, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The CBN’s policy needs to reflect this reality more aggressively.”

In response to the persistent inflation and naira weakness, analysts are urging the central bank to implement a more coherent strategy to manage the currency and inflation.

James Marshall of Promeritum Investment Management LLP suggested that the CBN should actively participate in the foreign exchange market to mitigate the naira’s volatility and restore market confidence.

“The central bank needs to be a more consistent and active participant in the forex market,” Marshall said. “A clear strategy to address the naira’s weakness is crucial for stabilizing the economy.”

The CBN’s decision will come as the country faces a critical period. With inflation expected to slow due to favorable comparisons with the previous year and new measures to reduce food costs, including a temporary import duty waiver on wheat and corn, there is hope that the economic situation may improve.

However, analysts anticipate that the CBN will need to implement one final rate hike to solidify inflation’s slowdown and restore positive real rates.

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Currency Drop Spurs Discount Dilemma in Cairo’s Markets

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Egyptian pound

Under Cairo’s scorching sun, the bustling streets reveal an unexpected twist in dramatic price drops on big-ticket items like cars and appliances.

Following March’s significant currency devaluation, prices for these goods have plunged, leaving consumers hesitant to make purchases amid hopes for even better deals.

Mohamed Yassin, a furniture store vendor, said “People just inquire about prices. They’re afraid to buy in case prices drop further.” This cautious consumer behavior is posing challenges for Egypt’s consumer-driven economy.

In March, Egyptian authorities devalued the pound by nearly 40% to stabilize an economy teetering on the edge. While such moves often lead to inflation spikes, Egypt’s case has been unusual.

Unlike other nations like Nigeria or Argentina, where costs soared post-devaluation, Egypt is witnessing falling prices for high-value items.

Previously inflated prices were driven by a black market in foreign currency, where importers secured dollars at exorbitant rates, passing costs onto consumers.

Now, with the pound stabilizing and foreign currency more accessible, retailers are struggling to sell inventory at pre-devaluation prices.

Despite price reductions, the overall consumer market remains sluggish. The automotive sector has seen a near 75% drop in sales compared to pre-crisis levels.

Major brands like Hyundai and Volkswagen have slashed prices by about a quarter, yet buyers remain cautious.

The economic strain is not limited to luxury items. Everyday expenses continue to rise, albeit more slowly, with anticipated hikes in electricity and fuel prices adding to the pressure.

Experts highlight a period of adjustment as both consumers and traders navigate the volatile exchange-rate environment. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of research at EFG Hermes, explains, “The market is taking time to absorb recent fluctuations.”

Meanwhile, businesses face declining sales, impacting their ability to manage operating costs. Yassin’s store has offered discounts of up to 50% yet remains quiet. “We’ve tried everything, but everyone is waiting,” he laments.

The devaluation has spurred a shift in economic dynamics. Inflation has eased, but the pace varies across sectors. Clothing and transportation costs are up, while food prices fluctuate.

With the phasing out of fuel subsidies and potential electricity price increases, Egyptians are bracing for further financial strain. The recent 300% rise in subsidized bread prices adds another layer of concern.

The situation underscores the balancing act between maintaining consumer confidence and attracting foreign investment.

Economists suggest potential stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates or increasing public spending, to boost demand.

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Economy

MPC Meeting on July 22-23 to Tackle Inflation as Rates Set to Rise Again

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Interbank rate

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to convene on July 22-23, 2024, amid soaring inflation and economic challenges in Nigeria.

Led by Olayemi Cardoso, the committee has already increased interest rates three times this year, raising them by 750 basis points to 26.25 percent.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate climbed to 34.19 percent in June, driven by rising food prices. Despite these pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that inflation will moderate to around 21.40 percent by year-end.

Market analysts expect a further rate hike as the committee seeks to rein in inflation. Nabila Mohammed from Chapel Hill Denham anticipates a 50–75 basis point increase.

Similarly, Coronation Research forecasts a potential rise of 50 to 100 basis points, given the recent uptick in inflation.

The food inflation rate reached 40.87 percent in June, exacerbated by security issues in key agricultural regions.

Essential commodities such as millet, garri, and yams have seen significant price hikes, impacting household budgets and savings.

As the MPC meets, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release data on selected food prices for June, providing further insights into the inflationary trends affecting Nigerians.

The upcoming MPC meeting will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Nigeria’s monetary policy as the government grapples with economic instability.

The focus remains on balancing inflation control with economic growth to ensure stability in Africa’s largest economy.

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