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Adeosun, CBN, Foreign Investors Disagree on Naira’s Future

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Naira - Investors King
  • Adeosun, CBN, Foreign Investors Disagree on Naira’s Future

Nigerian officials are increasingly confident the naira’s troubles are over for good. Some investors, however, disagree.

According to Bloomberg, portfolio inflows have risen in the past three months with crude prices increasing above $60 a barrel and money managers taking heart from a new foreign-exchange trading window, in which the naira has converged with the black-market rate.

That prompted Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Godwin Emefiele, and the Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, to tell investors in London on October 27 that the currency was set to strengthen.

The Minister of Finance, Kemi Adeosun concurred, saying on November 2 that the Federal Government saw no significant exchange-rate risk as it prepared to raise $5.5bn of Eurobonds.

Experts, however, said that Nigeria’s system of capital controls, multiple exchange rates and the trading window known as Nafex would struggle to survive a drop in oil revenue or sentiment turning against emerging markets.

The Sentiment is expected to come as the United States Federal Reserve raises interest rates, according to investors including Ashmore Group Plc and Standard Life Aberdeen Plc.

“At the moment, it’s easy for them to manage the current system and muddle through,” the Managing Director of TCW Group in Los Angeles, which oversees $200bn and recently started buying naira debt again after pulling out during the 2014 oil crash, Brett Rowley, said.

“That could change if we got a significant drop in crude production or prices. It’s not clear how Nigerian officials would react. That would be a key test to reassure investors they can get their money out even in times of stress,” Rowley added.

Yield-starved global investors have piled billions of dollars back into the country in the second half of this year, attracted by the naira’s devaluation after the Nafex window opened in April and yields on one-year Treasury bills of above 21 per cent for most of the year.

Foreign holdings of Nigerian government debt may have more than doubled from around five percent a year ago, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

That has helped the naira to appreciate by two per cent since August to 360.25 per dollar, trimming its loss in 2017 to 12 per cent.

The yield on one-year T-bills has dropped around 400 basis points in two months to 18.2 per cent, still among the highest in major emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg.

For now, Nigeria’s benefiting from a bullish oil market and rampant demand for developing-nation assets. Crude prices have increased 39 per cent since June as OPEC members including Saudi Arabia push for output cuts to continue in 2018.

And production in Nigeria, which is exempt from the curbs, has risen 15 per cent this year to 1.7 million barrels a day as militants ceased bombing export terminals and pipelines. Foreign reserves stood $34bn on October 30, the highest in almost three years.

But a drop in Brent crude to around $50 a barrel would probably be enough to push Nigeria’s current account back into deficit, according to Bank of America, which sees the naira falling to 432 per dollar by the end of 2018.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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