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Nigeria’s External Debt May Hit N6.31tn in 2018

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  • Nigeria’s External Debt May Hit N6.31tn in 2018

Following the move by the federal government to issue foreign bonds to refinance maturing naira-denominated treasury bills, Nigeria’s external debt has been estimated to increase by about 46per cent to N6.31 trillion ($20.6 billion) by the end of 2018.

PwC, a professional services firm stated this in a report in which it assessed the development.

The Federal Executive Council (FEC) recently approved a plan to issue $3 billion worth of foreign bonds of up to three years’ maturity to refinance maturing naira-denominated treasury bills.

This decision was in line with the federal government’s debt management strategy to rebalance its debt portfolio for domestic and foreign debt, from the current 69%:31% to a targeted 60%:40%.

Although the plan was yet to be approved by the National Assembly, PwC estimated that if implemented, it would have a modest impact on broad debt sustainability indicators.

“Although timelines are not clear, we suspect issuance is unlikely to be earlier than 2018, given the extensive preparatory work required in issuing international sovereign bonds.

“Consequently, we assume the impact on public debt ratios would become evident as from 2018. We estimate that Nigeria’s stock of treasury bills would be around NGN3.8 trillion by end-2017.

“Refinancing $3 billion worth of maturing bills with dollar borrowing would result in a reduction in this stock by as much as nine per cent. External debt on the other hand would increase by about 46 per cent to N6.31 trillion ($20.6 billion) by end-2018,” it added.

Under this scenario, the firm projected that debt to GDP would rise by three percentage points, from an estimated 16 per cent in 2017 to 19 per cent in 2018. Nonetheless, it stated that the impact on the cost of debt was likely to be muted.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reports the weighted-average interest rate on debt which takes into account the proportion of instruments issued.

Treasury bills account for 16 per cent of total federal government debt, and the portion to be refinanced is about one-quarter of treasury bill maturities in 2018.

“Thus, we estimate the weighted average interest rate could increase to 13 per cent, in 2018 from an estimated 12 per cent in 2017 and 11 per cent in 2015.

“Our analysis of key debt sustainability indicators suggests that the probability of debt distress at this time is low.

“We define debt distress as a scenario which requires a country to: incur substantial arrears on external debt; receive debt relief; and receive non-concessional balance of payments support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” the report added.

Among the various indicators based on the level of debt stock, external debt to exports is cited as the most useful, as exports provide the basis for debt repayments.

Furthermore, PwC estimated that Nigeria’s external debt to exports could rise by seven percentage points to 34 per cent in 2018.

This, they firm however said was well below the threshold of 100 per cent prescribed by the International Monetary Fund and the peak of 104 per cent recorded during Nigeria’s debt crisis in 2004.

But devaluation in the currency would be a key risk to external debt sustainability, they stated.

“However, this risk is somewhat offset by the natural hedge provided by the high foreign currency composition of government revenues.

“Under a scenario of an export shock similar to the episode recorded in 2015, we assume a 44 per cent decline in exports in 2018. Following this, we estimate external debt to exports will rise sharply to 71 per cent, up from 27 per cent in 2017.

“While Nigeria’s debt vulnerability worsens under this scenario, it still remains below the 100 per cent threshold level – at this level, Nigeria’s external debt would need to reach $60.2 billion,” the report added.

“While Nigeria’s near term public debt ratios remain relatively comfortable, we are mindful of the trend in debt service ratios. We estimate that debt service to revenue ratio is likely to remain elevated at 50 per cent in 2018, breaching the recommended threshold of 25 per cent.

“This represents the fourth consecutive increase since 2015. Given the outlook for lower oil revenues, we expect the government to do more in mobilising non-oil revenues to bridge the fiscal deficit, to meet the objective of reducing the “crowding out” impact of domestic borrowing.

“There is room for tax mobilisation as Nigeria’s non-oil tax to GDP at 2.3 per cent in 2016 remains well below the average of 16 per cent among sub-Saharan Africa countries.

“Similarly, the policy framework for investment incentives should be periodically assessed against intended policy objectives and revenue forgone. This would ensure that the investment incentive framework is targeted, cost effective and sustainable,” it added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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