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Bond Prices Fall on Profit-taking over Fears of Rate Cut

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  • Bond Prices Fall on Profit-taking over Fears of Rate Cut

The prices of FGN bonds traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) segment fell for most maturities last week, amid renewed profit-taking as investors cash in on recent gains.

There are also projections that an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may be in the offing in the short-term.

According to a report by Cowry Asset Management Limited, the 20-year, 10% FGN JUL 2030 paper, the 7-year, 16.00% FGN JUN 2019 and 5-year, 14.50% FGN JUL 2021 debts, all depreciated week-on-week by N0.50, N0.13 and N0.24 respectively; while corresponding yields rose to 16.61% (from 16.47%), 16.89% (from 16.80%) and 16.51% (from 16.41%). However, the 10-year, 16.39% FGN JAN 2022 debt, remained unchanged.

On the other hand, FGN Eurobonds traded on the London Stock Exchange appreciated in value across all the maturities amid sustained bargain hunting. The 10-year, 6.38% JUL 12, 2023 and 5-year, 5.13% JUL 12, 2018 bonds appreciated by $0.69 (yield fell to 5.39%) and $0.05 (yield fell to 3.49%) respectively.

“This week, we expect bond prices to appreciate at the OTC market on the back of expected ease in financial system liquidity,” Cowry Asset Management predicted.

But in their own assessment of the performance of the bond market last week, analysts at Afrinvest West Africa Limited, pointed out that in line with the recent trend in the domestic bond market, investor interest stayed soft last week and performance was largely bearish as average yield across benchmark bonds trended northwards on four of five trading sessions.

Last Wednesday, the Debt Management Office offered N35 billion of the JUL 2021 (Subscription: N10.4 billion, Allotted: N9.2 billion), N50 billion of the MAR 2027 (Subscription: N19.9 billion, Allotted: N17.5 billion) and N50 billion of the APR 2037 (Subscription: N33.4 billion, Allotted: N29.4 billion) instruments at marginal rates of 16.8%, 16.8% and 16.9% respectively. “Unsurprisingly, all Instruments were undersubscribed as lower system liquidity as well as investor preference for higher yield but short tenored treasury bills and open market operations (OMO) bills weighed on investor appetite at the Primary Market Auction.

The Lagos-based investment bank showed that sentiment on African Eurobonds was largely bullish last week as prices rose and yields fell on all trading instruments under our coverage, save for the Ghana 2017(+49 basis points), Ghana 2024 (+5 basis points) and South Africa 2019 (+2 basis points) instruments. The Gabon and Zambia Eurobonds received the most interest as average yield on respective country bonds declined 40 basis points and 16 basis points respectively week-on-week.

But the Kenya 2024, Zambia 2024 and Nigeria 2023 Eurobonds remained the best performing among their peers with year-to-date return of 10.3%, 8.8% and 8.5% respectively.

However, performance of Nigerian Corporate Eurobonds was mixed but largely bullish as investors were bearish on FBN Holdings’ 2021 (up 2 basis points) and Diamond 2019 (up 71 basis points).

Also, the Zenith 2022 (-34 basis points) received the most buying interest followed by the Access 2021(-4 basis points), FBN Holdings 2020 (-11 basis points) as well as the UBA 2022 (-6 basis points).

“Relatedly, Access and UBA released largely impressive H1:2017 results during the week and we believe this could have driven interest in the banks’ Eurobonds.

“On a year-to-date basis, Diamond 2019 (+21.3%) remains the best performing on price basis followed by FBN Holdings 2021 (+19.1%) and Fidelity 2018 (+13.8%),” according to the Afrinvest report.

Interbank Market

During the week, money market rates moved in tandem with liquidity dynamics. The CBN conducted OMO auctions on all trading sessions of the week while the DMO held its monthly bond auction which squeezed N56.1 billion from the system.

As a result, money market rates – open buy back (OBB) and overnight – rose on four of five sessions while system liquidity remained in deficit all week despite FAAC inflow and maturing OMO bills repayment of N652.23 billion and N95.7 billion respectively.

At the start of the week, OBB and overnight rates stood at 18.0% and 18.6% respectively and further rose to 24.2% and 25.2% on Tuesday due to a larger system deficit of N78.6 billion against N59.7 billion on Monday.

Liquidity levels further deteriorated on Wednesday to a deficit of N221.5 billion due to a series of outflows (debits from the bond and OMO sales). Consequently, Afrinvest in the report, showed that OBB and overnight rate spiked 67.5 and 70.8 percentage points to 91.7% and 96.0% respectively.

However, rates moderated on Thursday to 9.5% (OBB) and 10.1% (overnight), owing to OMO maturity of N95.7 billion which more than offset the N58.3 billion debit in OMO sales, although system liquidity remained in a deficit.

At the close of week, OBB closed flat at 12.0% week-on-week whilst overnight rate slid 30 basis points to 12.6% week-on-week.

However, performance in the treasury bills market was mixed last week as average treasury bills rate across benchmark instruments closed higher in three of five sessions.

The week started off on a quiet note, as average yield at the end of trade closed four basis points lower to settle at 18.5% while rates further declined two basis points on Tuesday to 18.4%. By Wednesday, average treasury bills rates inched a marginal one basis point higher to 18.5% and remained flat on Thursday. Average yield however closed the week at 18.5%, indicating a marginal four basis points hike week-on-week. This week, there will be an OMO maturity of N101.2 billion.

Analysts at Afrinvest anticipated that the CBN would continue with its OMO mop-ups in order to guide interbank rates to target levels.

Forex Market

In the just concluded week, the CBN injected $195million into the interbank foreign exchange market. In the wholesale segment of the market of the interbank market, CBN auctioned $100 million, $50 million went to the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the invisibles segment received $45 million.

Despite the inflows, the naira depreciated week-on-week (w-o-w) at the interbank and Bureau De Change market segments by 3.13 per cent and 0.27 per cent to N330/$ and N367/$ respectively.

However, the naira strengthened at the Investors & Exporters Forex Window (I&E FXW) by N0.42 to N359.56/$. At the parallel market, the local currency remained stable week-on-week.

Dated forward contracts at the interbank OTC segment suggested likely appreciation of the naira amid relatively high foreign exchange reserves – external reserves stood at $31.55 billion as at Friday, August 18, 2017.

The spot and 3 months forward contracts depreciated week-on-week by 0.03 per cent and 0.23 per cent to N305.80/$ N378.44/$ respectively.

The six months and 12 months however appreciated week-on-week by 0.03 per cent and 0.01 per cent to N398.52/$ and N435.63/$.

“This week, we expect CBN’s continued intervention in the interbank segment, increasing investor confidence and consistent build-up in external reserves to lead to further stability of the naira/dollar exchange rate,” analysts at Cowry Asset Management stated.

Liquidity for Non-interest Instruments

In a bid to aid liquidity management and deepen the financial system, the Central Bank of Nigeria last week introduced two new financial instruments known as – Funding for Liquidity Facility (FfLF) and Intra-day Facility (IDF), at its window, for access by non-interest financial institutions (NIFIs) under its regulation.

This central bank listed some of the features of the FfLF to include that it would provide liquidity facility on overnight basis only and to be terminated on next business day.

Some other features include: “Authorised non-interest financial institutions to provide eligible securities to the CBN as collateral for the facility. The value of the collateral to be maximum of 110 per cent of the value of the facility. For example, if a NIFI wishes to take a FfLF of N10 billion, it would be required to provide eligible security collateral worth N11 billion.

“The CBN shall specify acceptable collaterals from time to time. These shall include, but not limited to the following securities: CBN safe custody account (CSCA) deposit, CBN non-interest note (CNIN), CBN Asset-backed security (CBN-ABS). Sukuk (that has received status from the CBN, warehouse receipts as provided in the CBN Act 2007, and any other collateral designated by the CBN that does not contravene the CBN guidelines for NIFI’s operations,” it explained.

On the other hand, it listed some of the features of the IDF to include that the CBN would provide an IDF for settlement, on same day business while authorised NIFI are expected to provide eligible securities as collateral for the facility.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Moniepoint Strengthens Efforts to Broaden Financial Access Through Collaborative Initiatives

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Africa’s fastest growing financial institution according to the Financial Times, Moniepoint Inc has underscored the importance of a collaborative and holistic stakeholder approach in advancing the future of financial and economic inclusion in Nigeria.

In a recent high-level policy dialogue between the Nigerian government and private sector stakeholders held in Washington DC, Moniepoint Inc’s Group CEO and Co-Founder, Tosin Eniolorunda emphasized the importance of public-private collaborations in addressing trust issues that have slowed down the adoption of innovative fintech solutions for economic and financial inclusion.

“Moniepoint has long championed the importance of financial inclusion and financial happiness. Building trust with the public and government, improving business and consumer access to the financial system are critical issues that are aligned to our philosophy. As testament to our commitment, we recently launched a landmark report investigating Nigeria’s informal economy, highlighting opportunities to widen financial inclusion to historically underserved communities. The outputs from this strategic gathering will go a long way in bolstering Nigeria’s economy even as closer linkages are formed from public-private collaboration which will be a huge boost to the overall development and competitiveness of the larger financial services industry,“ Eniolorunda said.

The event, which brought together government officials, regulators, law enforcement agencies, and fintech industry leaders at George Washington University, aimed to leverage innovative approaches to drive a sustainable and inclusive financial system in Nigeria.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, addressing the gathering via video conference, highlighted the urgent need for financial innovation to drive Nigeria’s economic and financial inclusion agenda. This aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration’s commitment to bringing over 30 million unbanked Nigerians into the formal financial sector as part of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

“We must develop a sustainable collaboration approach that will facilitate the adoption of inclusive payment to achieve our objective of economic and financial inclusion,” Vice President Shettima stated.

The dialogue focused on addressing critical challenges in Nigeria’s fintech ecosystem, including regulatory oversight, security concerns, and trust issues that have hindered the widespread adoption of innovative financial solutions. Participants explored strategies to enhance interagency collaboration and strengthen the overall effectiveness of the financial services sector.

Philip Ikeazor, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria responsible for Financial System Stability, emphasized the need for ongoing collaboration among all stakeholders to meet the goals of the Aso Accord on Economic and Financial Inclusion.

Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), advocated for “a digital-first approach and the fusion of digital literacy with financial literacy to address trust issues affecting the inclusive payment ecosystem.”

Dr. Nurudeen Zauro, Technical Advisor to the President on Economic and Financial Inclusion, explained that the gathering aims to evolve into a mechanism providing relevant information to the Office of the Vice President, facilitating effective decision-making for economic and financial inclusion.

The event resulted in various recommendations covering rules, infrastructure, and coordination, with a focus on implementable actions and clear accountabilities. As discussions continue, Moniepoint remains dedicated to leveraging its expertise and technology to support the government’s financial inclusion goals and create a more financially inclusive society for all Nigerians.

Other notable speakers included Inspector General of Police Mr. Kayode Egbetokun, Executive Director of the Center for Curriculum Development and Learning (CCDL) at George Washington University Professor Pape Cisse, Assistant Vice President at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Mr. Reginald Emordi, Regional Director for Africa at the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) Mr. Lars Benson, and United States Congresswoman representing Florida’s 20th congressional district, The Honorable Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Prof Olayinka David-West from the Lagos Business School among others.

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CBN Rate Hikes Raise Borrowing Costs for Banks Seeking FX

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has implemented a significant adjustment to its borrowing rates.

The move, which follows the CBN’s recent decision to adjust the asymmetric corridor around the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing for banks seeking foreign exchange (FX).

This decision comes amid heightened concerns over the Naira’s performance and inflation rates.

According to Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director/CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, the adjustment means that banks now face borrowing costs of nearly 32% from the CBN, a sharp increase from the previous rate of approximately 26%.

This change in borrowing costs is intended to deter banks from relying on the CBN for FX purchases, thereby reducing pressure on the Naira.

Data reveals that in the first five days of July 2024, banks borrowed an unprecedented N5.38 trillion from the CBN, marking a record high.

The increased borrowing costs are expected to reduce this practice, thereby alleviating some of the strain on the Naira.

Despite these efforts, the Naira has continued to struggle. On Tuesday, the Naira depreciated by 3.13% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to N1,548.76.

This decline is attributed to reduced dollar supply and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

The black market saw an even sharper drop, with the Naira falling to 1,687 per dollar, reflecting broader concerns about currency stability.

Rewane highlighted that the recent rate hikes are part of a broader strategy by the CBN to manage inflation and stabilize the Naira.

“The increase in borrowing costs is a necessary step to address the carry trade practices where banks use cheap funds from the CBN to buy FX and sell it at higher rates,” he explained.

The CBN’s decision to raise borrowing costs comes amid a backdrop of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.

Over the past three years, the CBN has raised interest rates 12 times, with recent adjustments aimed at managing liquidity and curbing inflation.

As of June 2024, Nigeria’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 34.19%, up from 33.95% in May.

The central bank’s policy changes are expected to have mixed effects.

Analysts at FBNQuest anticipate that banks will continue to benefit from the high-interest rate environment, potentially leading to a shift of assets from equities to fixed-income securities as investors seek higher yields.

The CBN remains committed to navigating Nigeria through these challenging economic conditions.

By adjusting borrowing costs and implementing tighter monetary policies, the central bank aims to strike a balance between managing inflation, stabilizing the Naira, and supporting overall economic growth.

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Finance

Senate Passes Bill for 70% Windfall Levy on Banks’ Forex Gains

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Nigerian Senate has approved an amendment to the Finance Act of 2023, increasing the windfall levy on banks’ foreign exchange gains from 50% to 70%.

The bill was passed during a plenary session on Tuesday after a thorough review by the Finance Committee.

The Senate’s decision aims to address the significant profits banks have accrued due to recent foreign exchange policy shifts.

This windfall is viewed as a product of government intervention rather than the banks’ strategic efforts, prompting the call for redistribution.

The additional revenue from this levy is expected to contribute to financing the N6.2 trillion Appropriation Amendment Bill.

This funding will support various government projects and initiatives, ensuring that the windfall benefits are reinvested into the economy.

The Senate also approved amendments to the payment timeline, setting the levy to take effect from the start of the new foreign exchange regime through 2025, avoiding retrospective application from January 2024.

Also, the Upper Chamber removed the proposed jail term for principal officers of defaulting banks.

Instead, banks that fail to remit the levy will incur a penalty of 10% per annum on the withheld amount, alongside interest at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Minimum Rediscount Rate.

This legislative move aligns with President Tinubu’s broader fiscal strategy, which aims to optimize national revenue through independent sources.

The amendment underscores the Senate’s commitment to leveraging bank profits for national development, especially amid economic challenges.

While some industry stakeholders express concerns about the impact on banking operations, others see this as a necessary step towards equitable wealth distribution and economic stability.

The bill’s passage is anticipated to have significant implications for both the financial sector and the broader economy.

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