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Greece Approved for $1.8 Billion Conditional Loan From IMF

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  • Greece Approved for $1.8 Billion Conditional Loan From IMF

The International Monetary Fund agreed to a new conditional bailout for Greece, ending two years of speculation on whether it would join in another rescue and giving the seal of approval demanded by many of the country’s euro-area creditors.

The Washington-based fund said Thursday its executive board approved “in principle” a new loan worth as much as $1.8 billion. The disbursement of funds is contingent on euro-zone countries providing debt relief to Greece.

“As we have said many times, even with full program implementation, Greece will not be able to restore debt sustainability and needs further debt relief from its European partners,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. “A debt strategy anchored in more realistic assumptions needs to be agreed. I expect a plan to restore debt sustainability to be agreed soon between Greece and its European partners.”

IMF officials estimate that, even if Greece carries out promised reforms, the nation’s debt will reach about 150 percent of gross domestic product by 2030, and become “explosive” beyond that point. European creditors could bring the debt under control by extending grace periods, lengthening the maturity of the debt or deferring interest payments, the IMF said in a report accompanying the announcement.

The IMF’s decision to agree on the “precautionary stand-by arrangement” reflects the compromise reached in June between euro-area finance ministers reluctant to offer more generous repayment terms to Greece, and the fund, which resisted financing a country whose debt it considers too high to be paid back in full.

“Despite no prospect of an immediate disbursement, the IMF’s participation is useful for everyone,” Tassos Anastasatos, an economist at Eurobank Ergasias, said before Thursday’s announcement. While for euro-area governments it’s a “disciplining device” on Greece, in the long-term it gives Athens leverage to demand something more on debt relief, he said.

Return to Markets

A much-anticipated Greek return to bond markets this week has been held off partly due to a ceiling set by the IMF on the amount of debt the country can hold, according to three officials familiar with the matter. Using possible workarounds like debt swaps — that could improve Greece’s maturity profile without increasing the overall load — the government is waiting on how markets react to the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis before a possible foray as soon as next week.

The government is closely monitoring conditions in bond markets, and will only return when the time is right, Greek government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos told reporters in Athens on Thursday.

Having the IMF co-finance Greece’s rescue program was a key demand of many of the country’s euro-area creditors, led by Germany, who see the fund’s participation as ensuring the credibility of the reforms the country is asked to implement. But upcoming elections in Germany also made it impossible for Berlin to concede to any further debt relief for Greece, pushing instead for all decisions to be taken at the end of the country’s bailout in the summer of 2018 — and only if needed.

While the fund’s decision helps both the IMF and Germany stick to their guns, it does mean the issue will likely arise after the German elections in the fall, when the question of whether Greece will actually receive any loans from the IMF resurfaces.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Energy

Nigeria Targets $5bn Investments in Oil and Gas Sector, Says Government

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Nigeria is setting its sights on attracting $5 billion worth of investments in its oil and gas sector, according to statements made by government officials during an oil and gas sector retreat in Abuja.

During the retreat organized by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, explained the importance of ramping up crude oil production and creating an environment conducive to attracting investments.

He highlighted the need to work closely with agencies like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to achieve these goals.

Lokpobiri acknowledged the challenges posed by issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism but expressed confidence in the government’s ability to tackle them effectively.

He stressed the necessity of a globally competitive regulatory framework to encourage investment in the sector.

The minister’s remarks were echoed by Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, who spoke at the 2024 Strategic Women in Energy, Oil, and Gas Leadership Summit.

Kyari stressed the critical role of energy in driving economic growth and development and explained that Nigeria still faces challenges in providing stable electricity to its citizens.

Kyari outlined NNPCL’s vision for the future, which includes increasing crude oil production, expanding refining capacity, and growing the company’s retail network.

He highlighted the importance of leveraging Nigeria’s vast gas resources and optimizing dividend payouts to shareholders.

Overall, the government’s commitment to attracting $5 billion in investments reflects its determination to revitalize the oil and gas sector and drive economic growth in Nigeria.

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Commodities

Palm Oil Rebounds on Upbeat Malaysian Exports Amid Indonesian Supply Concerns

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Palm oil prices rebounded from a two-day decline on reports that Malaysian exports will be robust this month despite concerns over potential supply disruptions from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter.

The market saw a significant surge as Malaysian export figures for the current month painted a promising picture.

Senior trader David Ng from IcebergX Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur attributed the morning’s gains to Malaysia’s strong export performance, with shipments climbing by a notable 14% during March 1-25 compared to the previous month.

Increased demand from key regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East contributed to this impressive growth, as reported by Intertek Testing Services.

However, amidst this positivity, investors are closely monitoring developments in Indonesia. The Indonesian government’s contemplation of revising its domestic market obligation policy, potentially linking it to production rather than exports, has stirred market concerns.

Edy Priyono, a deputy at the presidential staff office in Jakarta, indicated that this proposed shift aims to mitigate vulnerability to fluctuations in export demand.

Yet, it could potentially constrain supply availability from Indonesia in the future to stabilize domestic prices.

This uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies has added a layer of complexity to palm oil market dynamics, prompting investors to react cautiously despite Malaysia’s promising export performance.

The prospect of Indonesian supply disruptions underscores the delicacy of global palm oil supply chains and their susceptibility to geopolitical and regulatory factors.

As the market navigates these developments, stakeholders remain attentive to both export data from Malaysia and policy shifts in Indonesia, recognizing their significant impact on palm oil prices and market stability.

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