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NBS: Crude Oil Prices Averaged $48/b Early July

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  • Crude Oil Prices Averaged $48/b Early July

Crude oil prices – that is, Brent crude, Bonny Light crude and WTI Midland crude- averaged $48.07 per barrel, $48.40 per barrel and $44.43 per barrel respectively the previous Thursday, July 5, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics has said.

According to data from NBS, a week prior to this, on June 29, Brent crude sold for $47.08/b, Bonny Light crude price at $47.66/b and WTI Midland crude price stood at $44.08/b and ended with Brent crude price of $47.63/b, Bonny Light crude price of $47.80/b and WTI Midland crude price of $44.43/b on July 5.

However, crude oil price broke its streak of seven consecutive higher daily highs, falling to $46.10/b on Friday. It rose modestly the following Monday but rising drilling activity in the United States and uncertainty over Libyan and Nigerian production cuts clouded the future supply outlook.

Brent crude futures rose 0.6 per cent to $47/b while US crude oil futures were yesterday up 0.7 per cent at $44.51/b. Brent crude prices are 17 per cent below their 2017 opening level despite strong compliance by OPEC with the production-cutting accord.

Nigeria and Libya have been invited to a joint meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC on July 24 in St Petersburg, Russia.

Six ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC nations, including Kuwait, Venezuela, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Oman, will meet on July 24 in St. Petersburg, Russia, to discuss the current situation in the oil market.

Two days after (Thursday), oil prices were higher after evidence of stronger demand balanced reports of higher production by key OPEC exporters in a downbeat report by the International Energy Agency. Brent crude rose 63 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $48.37/b by 2:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT) while U.S. light crude ended the day’s session up 59 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $46.08/b, CNBC reported.

There is evidence world oil demand is picking up, notably in the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers.

According to CNBC, China imported 8.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in the first six months of this year, up 13.8 percent on the same period in 2016, making it the world’s biggest crude importer ahead of the United States.

“We are definitely seeing robust demand growth” in China, said Neil Beveridge, senior oil analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

The Paris-based IEA issued a stronger outlook for global oil demand, with consumption in Germany and the United States increasing in recent months.

Still, oil inventories in industrialised nations remain high despite a modest drop in May. OECD stocks are still 266 million barrels above the five-year average, the IEA said.

The agency warned the oil market could stay oversupplied for longer than expected due to rising production and limited output cuts by some members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process,” the IEA report said.

“This month, there are two hitches: a dramatic recovery in oil production from Libya and Nigeria and a lower rate of compliance by OPEC with its own output agreement.”

OPEC said its production rose by 393,000 bpd in June to 32.611 million bpd, thanks to extra output from Nigeria and Libya.

That came despite a pledge by OPEC to curb production by about 1.2 million bpd between January this year and March 2018, while Russia and other non-OPEC producers say they will hold back about half as much.

OPEC’s compliance with cuts slumped to 78 percent last month from 95 percent in May as higher-than-allowed output from Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Iraq, the UAE and Venezuela offset strong compliance from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Angola, the IEA said.

OPEC said last Wednesday the world would need only 32.2 million bpd of its crude next year, down 60,000 bpd from this year and about 400,000 bpd less than it pumped in June.

Oil prices have dropped in recent weeks to levels not seen since the end of last year as investors lost faith in a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reduce output, while U.S. shale oil production has risen sharply.

Prices responded only minimally to data Wednesday showing that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped last week by the most in 10 months.

“The market is having difficulty picking its head up,” said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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