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Divergent Outlook Over inflation in Q3

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  • Divergent Outlook Over inflation in Q3

Businesses and consumers have differed in the expectations of the direction of the inflation rate in the third quarter of the year.

Meanwhile there was consensus of optimism about further naira appreciation and improved macro-economic performance in the third quarter.

These were highlights of the Business Expectations and Consumer Expectation surveys conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the just concluded second quarter.

The inflation rate has been on the downward trend since February falling from 18.72 per cent in January to 16.25 per cent in May

The CBN survey, however, revealed that while firms expect the inflation rate to moderate, consumers expect it to rise in the third quarter.

The CBN stated: “The outlook of businesses for the next quarter (Q3) however indicated greater confidence on the macro economy at 47.5 points. The drivers for this optimism were services (19.2 points), wholesale/retail trade (12.2 points, industrial (11.6 points and construction (5.3 points) sectors. Majority of the respondent firms expect the naira to appreciate in both the current and next quarters. Respondent firms expect inflation to rise in the current quarter but moderate in the next quarter.”

The apex bank also added: “The consumer outlook for the next quarter (Q3) and that of the next 12 months were however positive at 21.3 and 34.2 points respectively. The outlook could be attributed to the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, expected increase in net household income, and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months. Most respondents expected that borrowing rate will fall and naira will appreciate in the next 12 months, while inflation and unemployment will rise.

June PMI indicates increased economic expansion

Meanwhile, the CBN’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors show that more sub-sectors recorded growth during the month of June 2017. The report showed that 27 out of the 34 subsectors surveyed during the month recorded growth, up from 20 subsectors that recorded growth in May. In the manufacturing sector, 12 subsectors recorded growth while four subsectors contracted. In the non-manufacturing sector, 15 subsectors recorded growth while three subsectors contracted.

The report stated: “The Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.9 index points in June 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month.

Expansion in the manufacturing sector

Twelve of the 16 sub-sectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: computer & electronic products; paper products; plastics & rubber products; primary metal; transportation equipment; petroleum & coal products; appliances & components; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; furniture & related products; electrical equipment; food, beverage & tobacco products and fabricated metal products. The remaining 4 sub-sectors declined in the order: nonmetallic mineral products; cement; chemical & pharmaceutical products and printing & related support activities.

“The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector grew to 54.2 in June 2017 indicating growth in Non-manufacturing PMI for the second consecutive month. Of the 18 non-manufacturing sub-sectors, 15 recorded growth in the following order: utilities; water supply, sewage & waste management; finance & insurance; educational services; repair, maintenance/ washing of motor vehicles; agriculture; health care & social assistance; information & communication; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; wholesale trade; professional, scientific, & technical services; transportation & warehousing; accommodation & food services and arts, entertainment & recreation. The public administration, management of companies and construction sub sectors recorded contraction in the Non –manufacturing PMI in June 2017”.

Cost of funds to stabilise this week

Cost of funds in the interbank money market is expected to stabilise this week due to anticipation of improved system liquidity. Last week short term cost of funds fell by average of 359 basis points due to liquidity inflow of N276 billion from matured treasury bills, which cancelled out the effect of N86 billion outflow through purchase of secondary market bills on Friday. This coupled with reduction in outflow for dollar purchase caused interest rates on Collateralised Lending and Overnight lending to fall by 342 bases points and 375 basis points respectively. While interest rate on Collateralised Lending fell to 5.33 per cent on Friday from 8.75 per cent the previous week, interest rate on Overnight lending dropped to 5.75 per cent from 9.5 per cent the previous week.

Investigation showed that the market will experience N187 billion inflow from payment of matured treasury bills, which the apex bank will mop-up by selling equal amount of bills during the week. Notwithstanding, analysts were optimistic that cost of funds will be stable during the week. According to analysts at Cowry Assets Management Limited, “We expect financial system liquidity ease and resultant stability in interbank rates.

Similarly, analysts at Vetiva Capital Management Limited stated: We expect the improvement in system liquidity to continue to spur demand in the fixed income market in the coming week. Also, with the CBN signalling its intention to reduce T-bills rates (with the lower rates seen in recent OMO auctions), we see further room for increased buying activity in the T-bills market particularly.”

Naira records mixed performance

In spite of the $195 million injected into the interbank foreign exchange market and $130 million injected into the Bureau de change segment, the naira recorded mixed performance in the foreign exchange market last week.

While the naira appreciated by N1.5 in the parallel market, it depreciated by N4.28 at the Nigeria Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) segment. While the parallel market exchange rate dropped to N366 per dollar last week from N367.5 per dollar the previous week, the NAFEX rate rose to N366.44 per dollar from N362.16 per dollar within the same period.

During the week, the CBN continued its intervention by selling $195 million in the interbank market on Wednesday. A breakdown of the intervention showed that authorized dealers in the wholesale window segment received a $100 million, while the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and invisibles windows were allocated the $50 million and $45 million, respectively. In addition to this, the CBN sold $40,000 to each of the 3,145 bureaux de change (BDCs) across the country.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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