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Guarding Against Credit Risk Build-up

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14
  • Guarding Against Credit Risk Build-up

Since the last banking crisis in Nigeria, the financial market regulators have been working relentlessly not to lower their guard in view of the headwinds in both the local and global financial market.

To the regulators, close monitoring of financial institutions under their regulation as well as collaborative measures are needed to shield the industry from another crisis, return it to the path of sustainable growth, protect banks from delinquent borrowers as well as avoid the build-up of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the industry.

These concerns were elevated recently when banking sector non-performing loans rose to 11.7 per cent in 2016, up from 5.3 per cent the previous year.

In view of the current macro-economic challenges in the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had granted a one-off forbearance to banks to write-off their fully provided for NPLs without waiting for the mandatory one year.

The CBN stated that it acknowledged the request by banks to amend the requirements of S.3.21 (a) of the Prudential Guidelines, which mandates banks to retain in their records, fully provided for NPLs for a period of one year before they are written off.

“The CBN has no intention of repealing the provision of the above mentioned section of the guidelines. In view of the current macro-economic challenges, however, the CBN hereby grant a one-off forbearance this year 2016 to banks, to write-off fully provided for NPLs without waiting for the mandatory one year,” it added.

Clearly, as a country that is heavily dependent on oil, prolonged decline in oil prices always has a knock-on effect on the banking industry. Adverse commodity price shocks, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also contribute to financial fragility through various channels. Firstly, a decline in commodity prices in commodity-dependent countries results in reduced export income, which could adversely impact economic activity and agents’ (including governments) ability to meet their debt obligations, thereby potentially weakening banks’ balance sheets. Secondly, a surge in bank withdrawals following a drop in commodity prices may significantly reduce banks’ liquidity and potentially lead to a liquidity mismatch, the IMF stated.

Therefore, in order to continue to guarantee a safe and sound banking system, the CBN last week unveiled to members of the public, a draft document for licensing of Private Asset Management Companies (PAMCs) in the country.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Umaru Ibrahim, had hinted of plans to introduce private assets management companies.

The Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), which has been playing that role, was established on the 19th July 2010. It was created to be a key stabilising and re-vitalising tool aimed at reviving the financial system by efficiently resolving the non-performing loan assets of the banks in the Nigerian economy.

Private Asset Management Companies

According to the CBN, the Private Asset Management Companies (PAMCs) are expected to play complementary role in the management of non-performing loans in the country.

The CBN, in the exposure draft for the licensing and regulation of PAMCs in Nigeria, signed by its Director, Financial Policy and Regulation, Mr. Kelvin Amugo, explained that developments in the Nigerian banking industry necessitated the initiative.

The draft framework stated that, “given the ever evolving developments in the industry, the decline in international commodity prices with its consequent impact on risk assets in the industry, it has become expedient to proactively widen the space for the management of NPLs through the establishment of PAMCs.

“This is in line with the CBN’s core mandate of promoting a sound and stable financial system in Nigeria.”

The CBN described the PAMC as a privately owned institution licensed by the CBN as another financial institution (OFI) to acquire, manage, restructure and dispose of eligible assets of banks, OFIs and banks in liquidation.

According to the draft framework, the PAMC would perform the functions of AMCON, which included buying off assets of banks and other financial institutions and disposing them.

Also, they would be expected to provide consultancy and advisory services to banks and other financial institutions for the purpose of restructuring receivables and other assets including sale of such assets to third parties.

They would however not be allowed to operate as banks by taking deposits or granting loans neither would they be able to obtain credit from banks and other financial institutions in the county. To be licensed, a PAMC would need a N10 billion paid-up capital.

In terms of risk management, the framework requires that PAMCs develop an enterprise risk management framework, which will serve as a guide in the identification, measurement monitoring and control risk.

It added: “The ERM framework should be approved by the board of directors and cover the different forms of risks to which a PAMC may be exposed. Such risks include liquidity, credit, operational market, legal and compliance risks.”

Role of AMCON

The role of AMCON in the economy has since been reviewed by various bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Standard and Poor’s Ratings Agency, Fitch Ratings amongst others on several occasions. The mandate of the corporation was to help sanitise the banking industry. Prior to the creation of AMCON, various reports had indicated that the situation in the banking industry was extremely dangerous such that most people were afraid that the Nigerian financial industry would have completely collapsed. So, AMCON was established as a long-term solution to the perceived crises.

Indeed, the collaboration between AMCON and regulators in the banking industry succeeded in creating an environment where even the federal government and taxpayers did not bear the burden. Since its creation, the corporation has bought Eligible Bank Assets (EBAs) in three tranches in the Nigerian banking industry as well as provided financial accommodation to eight institutions. The EBAs comprised of NPLs as well as systemically important loans in the Nigerian banking sector.

However, the story of the strategic health of banks in the country could not be complete without the all-important role that was played by AMCON, in cleaning up the sector. Clearly, the creation of AMCON to clean up the huge amount of toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets in order to revive both corporate and consumer lending in the economy remains an integral part of the financial stability plan of the banking system.

The ‘bad bank’, created in the last quarter of 2010, has since completed its NPLs purchase mandate and that has continued to reflect in the positive results being churned out by the commercial banks.

Need for another ‘Bad Bank’

The Managing Director of NDIC, Alhaji Umaru Ibrahim, had disclosed that the corporation had been working closely with the CBN to set up another resolution mechanism for cleaning up banks’ non-performing loans when the terminal life of AMCON expires. The sunset period for AMCON may be by 2023.

Ibrahim, who said a joint NDIC and CBN committee was established to work on the fresh initiative, added that the new institution(s) would pave the way for the gradual folding up of AMCON. According to the NDIC boss, the new ‘bad bank’ to be established would be purely driven by the private sector.

This, he said, became necessary as there had been complaints against using taxpayers’ monies to bail out institutions.

“We are studying the need to establish what you may call AMCON. Two; that is the second round of AMCON, which would be driven by the private sector. This is very important because we know what has happened. There are concerns about using taxpayers’ money to bail out institutions.

“So, it is in line of the global best practice that we go back to the drawing board because our initial concept of AMCON in the early 90s was that it was going to be a joint venture between the private and public sectors’ investors, so as to minimise the risk of using taxpayers’ money to resolve the problem of buying and selling of bad loans.

“So, we established a joint committee to look into this and we hope that in the long run, we should be able to establish a second AMCON that would be private sector driven.

“Here, other investors can invest in it and the CBN, NDIC or the Finance Ministry can invest, so that going forward, buying and selling of bad loans would be under the control of that entity. That would pave the way for the gradual transition or folding up of the present AMCON.” the NDIC boss explained.

However, the Director General of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Prof. Akpan Ekpo, advised the NDIC and central bank that instead of establishing “AMCON 2,” they should allow the existing AMCON to metamorphose into the private sector-driven resolution vehicle.

“They should amend the existing AMCON Act instead of spending resources to establish another institution. That would also amount to wasting taxpayers’ resources. We have learnt a lot from this AMCON.

“But what we need now is a private sector-driven AMCON that they said they are proposing, but this current AMCON should be allowed to be transformed into that. Also, if it is going to be private sector, let only those who have experience be appointed into the board and not by patronage,” the WAIFEM boss stated.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Finance

Moniepoint Strengthens Efforts to Broaden Financial Access Through Collaborative Initiatives

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Africa’s fastest growing financial institution according to the Financial Times, Moniepoint Inc has underscored the importance of a collaborative and holistic stakeholder approach in advancing the future of financial and economic inclusion in Nigeria.

In a recent high-level policy dialogue between the Nigerian government and private sector stakeholders held in Washington DC, Moniepoint Inc’s Group CEO and Co-Founder, Tosin Eniolorunda emphasized the importance of public-private collaborations in addressing trust issues that have slowed down the adoption of innovative fintech solutions for economic and financial inclusion.

“Moniepoint has long championed the importance of financial inclusion and financial happiness. Building trust with the public and government, improving business and consumer access to the financial system are critical issues that are aligned to our philosophy. As testament to our commitment, we recently launched a landmark report investigating Nigeria’s informal economy, highlighting opportunities to widen financial inclusion to historically underserved communities. The outputs from this strategic gathering will go a long way in bolstering Nigeria’s economy even as closer linkages are formed from public-private collaboration which will be a huge boost to the overall development and competitiveness of the larger financial services industry,“ Eniolorunda said.

The event, which brought together government officials, regulators, law enforcement agencies, and fintech industry leaders at George Washington University, aimed to leverage innovative approaches to drive a sustainable and inclusive financial system in Nigeria.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, addressing the gathering via video conference, highlighted the urgent need for financial innovation to drive Nigeria’s economic and financial inclusion agenda. This aligns with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration’s commitment to bringing over 30 million unbanked Nigerians into the formal financial sector as part of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

“We must develop a sustainable collaboration approach that will facilitate the adoption of inclusive payment to achieve our objective of economic and financial inclusion,” Vice President Shettima stated.

The dialogue focused on addressing critical challenges in Nigeria’s fintech ecosystem, including regulatory oversight, security concerns, and trust issues that have hindered the widespread adoption of innovative financial solutions. Participants explored strategies to enhance interagency collaboration and strengthen the overall effectiveness of the financial services sector.

Philip Ikeazor, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria responsible for Financial System Stability, emphasized the need for ongoing collaboration among all stakeholders to meet the goals of the Aso Accord on Economic and Financial Inclusion.

Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, Director General of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), advocated for “a digital-first approach and the fusion of digital literacy with financial literacy to address trust issues affecting the inclusive payment ecosystem.”

Dr. Nurudeen Zauro, Technical Advisor to the President on Economic and Financial Inclusion, explained that the gathering aims to evolve into a mechanism providing relevant information to the Office of the Vice President, facilitating effective decision-making for economic and financial inclusion.

The event resulted in various recommendations covering rules, infrastructure, and coordination, with a focus on implementable actions and clear accountabilities. As discussions continue, Moniepoint remains dedicated to leveraging its expertise and technology to support the government’s financial inclusion goals and create a more financially inclusive society for all Nigerians.

Other notable speakers included Inspector General of Police Mr. Kayode Egbetokun, Executive Director of the Center for Curriculum Development and Learning (CCDL) at George Washington University Professor Pape Cisse, Assistant Vice President at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Mr. Reginald Emordi, Regional Director for Africa at the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) Mr. Lars Benson, and United States Congresswoman representing Florida’s 20th congressional district, The Honorable Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Prof Olayinka David-West from the Lagos Business School among others.

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Banking Sector

CBN Rate Hikes Raise Borrowing Costs for Banks Seeking FX

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Retail banking

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has implemented a significant adjustment to its borrowing rates.

The move, which follows the CBN’s recent decision to adjust the asymmetric corridor around the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing for banks seeking foreign exchange (FX).

This decision comes amid heightened concerns over the Naira’s performance and inflation rates.

According to Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director/CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, the adjustment means that banks now face borrowing costs of nearly 32% from the CBN, a sharp increase from the previous rate of approximately 26%.

This change in borrowing costs is intended to deter banks from relying on the CBN for FX purchases, thereby reducing pressure on the Naira.

Data reveals that in the first five days of July 2024, banks borrowed an unprecedented N5.38 trillion from the CBN, marking a record high.

The increased borrowing costs are expected to reduce this practice, thereby alleviating some of the strain on the Naira.

Despite these efforts, the Naira has continued to struggle. On Tuesday, the Naira depreciated by 3.13% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to N1,548.76.

This decline is attributed to reduced dollar supply and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

The black market saw an even sharper drop, with the Naira falling to 1,687 per dollar, reflecting broader concerns about currency stability.

Rewane highlighted that the recent rate hikes are part of a broader strategy by the CBN to manage inflation and stabilize the Naira.

“The increase in borrowing costs is a necessary step to address the carry trade practices where banks use cheap funds from the CBN to buy FX and sell it at higher rates,” he explained.

The CBN’s decision to raise borrowing costs comes amid a backdrop of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.

Over the past three years, the CBN has raised interest rates 12 times, with recent adjustments aimed at managing liquidity and curbing inflation.

As of June 2024, Nigeria’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 34.19%, up from 33.95% in May.

The central bank’s policy changes are expected to have mixed effects.

Analysts at FBNQuest anticipate that banks will continue to benefit from the high-interest rate environment, potentially leading to a shift of assets from equities to fixed-income securities as investors seek higher yields.

The CBN remains committed to navigating Nigeria through these challenging economic conditions.

By adjusting borrowing costs and implementing tighter monetary policies, the central bank aims to strike a balance between managing inflation, stabilizing the Naira, and supporting overall economic growth.

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Finance

Senate Passes Bill for 70% Windfall Levy on Banks’ Forex Gains

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Nigerian Senate has approved an amendment to the Finance Act of 2023, increasing the windfall levy on banks’ foreign exchange gains from 50% to 70%.

The bill was passed during a plenary session on Tuesday after a thorough review by the Finance Committee.

The Senate’s decision aims to address the significant profits banks have accrued due to recent foreign exchange policy shifts.

This windfall is viewed as a product of government intervention rather than the banks’ strategic efforts, prompting the call for redistribution.

The additional revenue from this levy is expected to contribute to financing the N6.2 trillion Appropriation Amendment Bill.

This funding will support various government projects and initiatives, ensuring that the windfall benefits are reinvested into the economy.

The Senate also approved amendments to the payment timeline, setting the levy to take effect from the start of the new foreign exchange regime through 2025, avoiding retrospective application from January 2024.

Also, the Upper Chamber removed the proposed jail term for principal officers of defaulting banks.

Instead, banks that fail to remit the levy will incur a penalty of 10% per annum on the withheld amount, alongside interest at the prevailing Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Minimum Rediscount Rate.

This legislative move aligns with President Tinubu’s broader fiscal strategy, which aims to optimize national revenue through independent sources.

The amendment underscores the Senate’s commitment to leveraging bank profits for national development, especially amid economic challenges.

While some industry stakeholders express concerns about the impact on banking operations, others see this as a necessary step towards equitable wealth distribution and economic stability.

The bill’s passage is anticipated to have significant implications for both the financial sector and the broader economy.

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