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Guarding Against Credit Risk Build-up

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Forex Weekly Outlook October 10-14
  • Guarding Against Credit Risk Build-up

Since the last banking crisis in Nigeria, the financial market regulators have been working relentlessly not to lower their guard in view of the headwinds in both the local and global financial market.

To the regulators, close monitoring of financial institutions under their regulation as well as collaborative measures are needed to shield the industry from another crisis, return it to the path of sustainable growth, protect banks from delinquent borrowers as well as avoid the build-up of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the industry.

These concerns were elevated recently when banking sector non-performing loans rose to 11.7 per cent in 2016, up from 5.3 per cent the previous year.

In view of the current macro-economic challenges in the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had granted a one-off forbearance to banks to write-off their fully provided for NPLs without waiting for the mandatory one year.

The CBN stated that it acknowledged the request by banks to amend the requirements of S.3.21 (a) of the Prudential Guidelines, which mandates banks to retain in their records, fully provided for NPLs for a period of one year before they are written off.

“The CBN has no intention of repealing the provision of the above mentioned section of the guidelines. In view of the current macro-economic challenges, however, the CBN hereby grant a one-off forbearance this year 2016 to banks, to write-off fully provided for NPLs without waiting for the mandatory one year,” it added.

Clearly, as a country that is heavily dependent on oil, prolonged decline in oil prices always has a knock-on effect on the banking industry. Adverse commodity price shocks, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also contribute to financial fragility through various channels. Firstly, a decline in commodity prices in commodity-dependent countries results in reduced export income, which could adversely impact economic activity and agents’ (including governments) ability to meet their debt obligations, thereby potentially weakening banks’ balance sheets. Secondly, a surge in bank withdrawals following a drop in commodity prices may significantly reduce banks’ liquidity and potentially lead to a liquidity mismatch, the IMF stated.

Therefore, in order to continue to guarantee a safe and sound banking system, the CBN last week unveiled to members of the public, a draft document for licensing of Private Asset Management Companies (PAMCs) in the country.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Umaru Ibrahim, had hinted of plans to introduce private assets management companies.

The Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), which has been playing that role, was established on the 19th July 2010. It was created to be a key stabilising and re-vitalising tool aimed at reviving the financial system by efficiently resolving the non-performing loan assets of the banks in the Nigerian economy.

Private Asset Management Companies

According to the CBN, the Private Asset Management Companies (PAMCs) are expected to play complementary role in the management of non-performing loans in the country.

The CBN, in the exposure draft for the licensing and regulation of PAMCs in Nigeria, signed by its Director, Financial Policy and Regulation, Mr. Kelvin Amugo, explained that developments in the Nigerian banking industry necessitated the initiative.

The draft framework stated that, “given the ever evolving developments in the industry, the decline in international commodity prices with its consequent impact on risk assets in the industry, it has become expedient to proactively widen the space for the management of NPLs through the establishment of PAMCs.

“This is in line with the CBN’s core mandate of promoting a sound and stable financial system in Nigeria.”

The CBN described the PAMC as a privately owned institution licensed by the CBN as another financial institution (OFI) to acquire, manage, restructure and dispose of eligible assets of banks, OFIs and banks in liquidation.

According to the draft framework, the PAMC would perform the functions of AMCON, which included buying off assets of banks and other financial institutions and disposing them.

Also, they would be expected to provide consultancy and advisory services to banks and other financial institutions for the purpose of restructuring receivables and other assets including sale of such assets to third parties.

They would however not be allowed to operate as banks by taking deposits or granting loans neither would they be able to obtain credit from banks and other financial institutions in the county. To be licensed, a PAMC would need a N10 billion paid-up capital.

In terms of risk management, the framework requires that PAMCs develop an enterprise risk management framework, which will serve as a guide in the identification, measurement monitoring and control risk.

It added: “The ERM framework should be approved by the board of directors and cover the different forms of risks to which a PAMC may be exposed. Such risks include liquidity, credit, operational market, legal and compliance risks.”

Role of AMCON

The role of AMCON in the economy has since been reviewed by various bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Standard and Poor’s Ratings Agency, Fitch Ratings amongst others on several occasions. The mandate of the corporation was to help sanitise the banking industry. Prior to the creation of AMCON, various reports had indicated that the situation in the banking industry was extremely dangerous such that most people were afraid that the Nigerian financial industry would have completely collapsed. So, AMCON was established as a long-term solution to the perceived crises.

Indeed, the collaboration between AMCON and regulators in the banking industry succeeded in creating an environment where even the federal government and taxpayers did not bear the burden. Since its creation, the corporation has bought Eligible Bank Assets (EBAs) in three tranches in the Nigerian banking industry as well as provided financial accommodation to eight institutions. The EBAs comprised of NPLs as well as systemically important loans in the Nigerian banking sector.

However, the story of the strategic health of banks in the country could not be complete without the all-important role that was played by AMCON, in cleaning up the sector. Clearly, the creation of AMCON to clean up the huge amount of toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets in order to revive both corporate and consumer lending in the economy remains an integral part of the financial stability plan of the banking system.

The ‘bad bank’, created in the last quarter of 2010, has since completed its NPLs purchase mandate and that has continued to reflect in the positive results being churned out by the commercial banks.

Need for another ‘Bad Bank’

The Managing Director of NDIC, Alhaji Umaru Ibrahim, had disclosed that the corporation had been working closely with the CBN to set up another resolution mechanism for cleaning up banks’ non-performing loans when the terminal life of AMCON expires. The sunset period for AMCON may be by 2023.

Ibrahim, who said a joint NDIC and CBN committee was established to work on the fresh initiative, added that the new institution(s) would pave the way for the gradual folding up of AMCON. According to the NDIC boss, the new ‘bad bank’ to be established would be purely driven by the private sector.

This, he said, became necessary as there had been complaints against using taxpayers’ monies to bail out institutions.

“We are studying the need to establish what you may call AMCON. Two; that is the second round of AMCON, which would be driven by the private sector. This is very important because we know what has happened. There are concerns about using taxpayers’ money to bail out institutions.

“So, it is in line of the global best practice that we go back to the drawing board because our initial concept of AMCON in the early 90s was that it was going to be a joint venture between the private and public sectors’ investors, so as to minimise the risk of using taxpayers’ money to resolve the problem of buying and selling of bad loans.

“So, we established a joint committee to look into this and we hope that in the long run, we should be able to establish a second AMCON that would be private sector driven.

“Here, other investors can invest in it and the CBN, NDIC or the Finance Ministry can invest, so that going forward, buying and selling of bad loans would be under the control of that entity. That would pave the way for the gradual transition or folding up of the present AMCON.” the NDIC boss explained.

However, the Director General of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Prof. Akpan Ekpo, advised the NDIC and central bank that instead of establishing “AMCON 2,” they should allow the existing AMCON to metamorphose into the private sector-driven resolution vehicle.

“They should amend the existing AMCON Act instead of spending resources to establish another institution. That would also amount to wasting taxpayers’ resources. We have learnt a lot from this AMCON.

“But what we need now is a private sector-driven AMCON that they said they are proposing, but this current AMCON should be allowed to be transformed into that. Also, if it is going to be private sector, let only those who have experience be appointed into the board and not by patronage,” the WAIFEM boss stated.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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