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Stocks: Analysts Predict Bearish Trading This Week

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Nigerian Exchange Limited - Investors King
  • Stocks: Analysts Predict Bearish Trading This Week

The Nigerian equities market is expected to see more of bearish trading this week despite the negative trend that pervaded the market last week.

Sell pressures prevailed in the market last week as investors began profit taking activities on stocks that have been trading at high prices following the recent bullish run.

“We expect trading activities in the coming week to mirror that of the week past albeit at a moderated level. A positive close is not unexpected as we envisage pockets of bargain-hunting in the week following this week’s significant loss,” analysts at Meristem Securities Limited said.

Following weeks of consecutive gains in the Nigerian Stock Exchange, the Exchange’s All-Share index declined significantly by 4.99 per cent, to settle the year-to-date return at 19.53 per cent last week.

Also, volume traded and market turnover declined by 15.53 per cent and 23.30 per cent, respectively. Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals Plc emerged the top performer last week, after the counter advanced by 44.12 per cent to close at N0.98. Contrarily, Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc was the top underperformer during the week after it shed 23.12 per cent.

For the banking sector, in what was a negative week for the market in general, there were severe profit taking activities on all, but one of the sector’s counters. “We expect the sector to close in line with the general market mood this week,” the Meristem analysts said.

In the week, as expected, the agric sector halted its gaining streak following the sell pressure on Okomu Oil Palm Plc, which resulted in a week-on-week loss. The analysts envisaged continued sell sentiments this week as investors take profit on the sector major players, having recorded significant gains in the past weeks.

The consumer goods sector recorded continued sell pressures on stocks which had recorded significant gains in the past weeks. This week, it is expected that the sector’s performance would in line with general market sentiments.

After weeks of closing in the green zone, profit-taking activities dominated the health sector stocks last week. However, trickles of bargain-hunting were witnessed among the less popular counters in the sector. Given the recent market mood, the analysts did not rule out a continuation of these buy pressures. Nonetheless, speculators may cash in on the gains recorded due to the companies’ weak fundamentals.

For the industrial goods sector, the Meristem analysts said despite the positive sentiments in the sector evidenced by the market breadth, it closed underwater. “We attribute this loss to the share price decline of the sector’s heavyweights (Dangote Cement Plc and Lafarge Africa Plc). We expect the profit taking to continue this week,” they added.

Mixed sentiments were witnessed in the insurance sector last week as indicated by the sector’s breadth, and according to analysts, the sector’s activities this week would be largely dictated by the general market mood.

For the oil and gas sector, they stated, “We attribute the loss last week to the decline in the share prices of the sector’s heavyweights. We also note the positive sentiments towards Conoil Plc following the release of impressive results alongside dividend declaration in the week. This week, we expect the sector to close positive.

Activities in the services sector mirrored the general market last week as profit taking on a lot of counters prevailed. This week, analysts expect the performance of the sector to remain in line with the market.

Commenting on the this week’s market expectations, analyst at Vetiva Capital Management Limited said, “Given the sustained negative market sentiment at last week’s close – indicated by the widely negative market breadth on Friday and through the week – we expect bearish trading to extend into this week.

For the fixed income market, barring any aggressive mop ups by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Vetiva analysts foresee increased demand in the Treasury bills market, spurred by the Federation Account Allocation Committee injection and the anticipated N236bn Open Market Operation maturity this week, though the bond space should remain mixed.

The bond market opened last week on a slightly bearish note, with selloffs observed on select tenors even as trading activity in the space remained relatively muted. The bearish sentiment persisted till midweek when the monthly bond auction was conducted.

At the auction, the Debt Management Office offered N140bn and eventually sold N99bn across the five-year, 10-year and 20-year tenors at respective stop rates of 16.1900 per cent, 16.1900 per cent and 16.1965 per cent – lower than secondary market levels.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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