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China’s Consumers, Factories Hold Up as Property Starts to Cool

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  • China’s Consumers, Factories Hold Up as Property Starts to Cool

China’s retail sales and industrial output remained resilient in May, while signs emerged that measures to cool the property market are having some effect.

Key Points

  • Industrial output rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier
  • Retail sales increased 10.7 percent, matching economists’ projections
  • Fixed-asset investment expanded 8.6 percent in first five months, trailing estimates as property development investment slowed
  • Bloomberg’s monthly China GDP tracker shows growth at 7.14 percent in May, little changed from April.

Big Picture

Economic activity has held up, underscoring the resilience of Chinese businesses and consumers, even as regulators pushed to reduce risks lurking in shadow banking. A weaker property market amid tightening home-purchase curbs in some cities, along with fading producer reflation, pose threats to the outlook.

Economist Takeaways

“A creeping slowdown in real estate added to concerns that 1Q was the high point for growth,” Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a note. “The slowdown is set to be steady not spiraling, as exports remain robust and the government continues to buoy demand through infrastructure spending. Even so, with growth edging down, the People’s Bank of China is likely done with tightening for the time being.”

“Property curbs started to take a toll on investment growth. Other than that, the readings are quite good. Industrial output is growing relatively quickly, and consumption remains robust,” said Gao Yuwei, a researcher at Bank of China Ltd.’s Institute of International Finance in Beijing. “The second quarter in general shows signs of stabilization.”

“Stability is the key,” Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “May data is strengthening the view that the second quarter GDP is quite stable and the first quarter is probably the peak for this year.”

“As indicated by today’s data, the tightening of housing purchasing restrictions in many large cities weighs on real estate investment,” Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, wrote in a note. “We expect economic growth momentum to cool in the rest of the year. Infrastructure investment should remain robust in a year of a major leadership reshuffle. And corporate investment should benefit somewhat from renewed profit growth.”

“Property investment will face even bigger downward pressure starting from August, as the effect of home-buying curbs will fully pass through to investment then. Also a high base last year will also contribute to the slowdown,” said Wang Qiufeng, an analyst at China Chengxin International Credit Ratings in Beijing. “Some complementary indicators like the coal and electricity consumption have dropped, foreboding a possible moderation of industrial activities. In general, the economy is very likely to cool down in the second half.”

The Details

  • Coal and natural gas led growth in industrial production from a year earlier
  • Property development investment rose 8.8 percent in January-May
  • Food, drinks and tobacco led gains in retail sales
  • Investment in primary industries outperformed services, manufacturing investment
  • Mainland stocks slipped after the data was released
  • The surveyed jobless rate was below 5 percent in May, and employment remains “very stable,” a statistics bureau spokeswoman said at a briefing

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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