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Malaysian Ringgit to Rally to Eight-Month High, Top Banker Says

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Malaysian Ringgit
  • Malaysian Ringgit to Rally to Eight-Month High, Top Banker Says

The ringgit may advance 4 percent as the latest measures by Bank Negara Malaysia reduce the risks of holding the currency and the economy improves, a member of the central bank’s financial markets committee said.

The currency could reach 4.1 to the dollar in the second half, said Lee Kok Kwan, who is also a director at lender CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. The fair value of the ringgit should be between 3.8 and 4.0, when benchmarked against regional and commodity currencies, said Lee, who accurately predicted in January that the currency will rebound from a 19-year low.

“The macro fundamentals have improved quite a lot, such as GDP and exports,” Lee, who is part of the committee tasked to develop strategies for the nation’s bond and currency markets, said in an interview on Wednesday. “Equally as important, the speculative offshore holdings of short-dated ringgit instruments have declined markedly, which eliminates a major source of downside risk to the currency going forward.”

Lee joins a chorus of voices seeking to boost sentiment on Malaysian assets as the central bank relaxes currency hedging rules, after a clampdown on the trading of non-deliverable forwards last November sent investors fleeing. He is more bullish than the consensus analyst estimate, which sees the ringgit weakening to 4.35 against the dollar by the end of the year.

The currency last touched 4.1 in October, and was at 4.264 at 11:00 a.m. local time Thursday. Foreign holdings of debt rose for a second month in May, while the currency has advanced 5 percent this year as confidence improves.

A 45% increase in sales of ringgit corporate bonds this year, and the tightening of Malaysia’s credit-default swaps to less than 100 basis points suggest that the risk profile for the currency has dropped, Lee said.

Bank Negara’s clampdown on NDFs had reduced up to 50 billion ringgit ($11.7 billion) of overseas holdings of short-dated interest-bearing assets, Lee said. A requirement in December for exporters to hold only as much as 25 percent of proceeds in foreign currencies is also helping to sustain bids for the ringgit, Lee added.

To revive confidence, the central bank said in April it will let fund managers handle all of their foreign exchange exposure, up from a limit of as much as 25 percent of invested assets. It will also let domestic investors short-sell government bonds to boost liquidity.

Lee’s view echoes others including Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which said in April that the ringgit may be among the region’s better performers in the coming months. Strategists at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note this month that the currency is among those favored.

What’s boosting their case is Malaysia’s improving economy. Gross domestic product grew 5.6 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in two years, while exportsexpanded 20.6 percent from a year earlier in April.

Lee also made the following points in the interview:

  • Full liberalization of currency hedging in Malaysia negates the need for fund managers and corporates to go offshore to cover ringgit exposure
  • There’s more than 1 trillion ringgit in investments abroad, which are mostly unhedged, and the outsized foreign-exchange gains could disappear as the currency strengthens
  • Risk factors for the ringgit would include a major disruption in North Korea or in the Middle East. Expectations for U.S. interest rate increases have been priced in while commodity prices could fall further and pose a risk to Malaysia
  • Doesn’t see much upside for local bonds as “the ringgit yield curve is almost as steep as the U.S. yield curve, so it’s all priced in”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Nigeria Hits Historic High as Currency in Circulation Surges to N3.69 Trillion

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Nigeria’s currency in circulation surged to a historic high of N3.69 trillion, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

This figure represents an increase of N43.07 billion or 1.18 percent from the total of N3.65 trillion reported in January 2024 and a 13.64 percent year-on-year rise from N3.25 trillion reported in February 2023.

Currency in circulation encompasses the physical cash, including paper notes and coins, actively used in transactions between consumers and businesses within the country.

The latest statistics indicate a considerable uptick in the availability of cash within the Nigerian economy.

The surge in currency supply comes amidst lingering concerns over a potential cash crunch following the monetary policy adjustments by the CBN, particularly the aggressive tightening stance of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts attribute this spike to various factors, including the fear factor stemming from the cash crunch experienced in 2023 and lingering uncertainties surrounding the administration of physical currency.

Despite the surge in currency in circulation, Nigeria’s economic growth remains sluggish, with projections indicating growth rates of around 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent for 2024.

Also, inflation remains a significant concern, with the headline inflation rate climbing to 31.70 percent in February 2024 from 29.9 percent reported in January 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The CBN’s proactive approach to monetary policy, including a historic increase in the monetary policy rate (MPR) to 24.75 percent, underscores the central bank’s commitment to addressing economic challenges and fostering stability amidst persistent pressures.

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Naira

Nigerian Naira Surges to N1,350 per Dollar in Parallel Market

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The Nigerian Naira has appreciated to N1,350 per dollar in the parallel market, a significant gain from its previous rate of N1,430 per dollar just a day earlier.

Similarly, in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira strengthened to N1,382.95 per dollar, indicating an upward trend across key forex segments.

Data from FMDQ revealed that the indicative exchange rate for NAFEM fell to N1,382.95 per dollar from N1,408.04 per dollar on the previous day, representing a gain of N25.09 for the naira.

This surge in the naira’s value has widened the margin between the parallel market rate and NAFEM to N32.95 per dollar from N21.96 per dollar previously.

Analysts attribute this impressive surge to recent foreign exchange reforms implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

These reforms, including the consolidation of exchange rate windows and liberalization of the FX market, have contributed to bolstering the naira’s strength against the dollar.

The CBN’s proactive measures aim to promote stability, transparency, and liquidity in the foreign exchange market, fostering confidence among investors and strengthening the national currency.

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Forex

CBN Governor Reveals $2.4 Billion Forex Forwards Under Investigation

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Governor Yemi Cardoso of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed that law enforcement agencies are currently investigating foreign exchange forwards valued at $2.4 billion.

This announcement came in the wake of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held in Abuja on Tuesday, March 26.

Governor Cardoso shed light on the meticulous forensic audit conducted on these transactions, which uncovered numerous discrepancies, rendering them ineligible for payment.

The CBN, while settling certain tranches of FX backlog, encountered transactions riddled with issues concerning their authenticity.

To address these concerns, Deloitte management consultants were enlisted to conduct a comprehensive forensic analysis spanning several months.

The audit revealed a multitude of irregularities, including allocations disbursed without corresponding requests, lack of proper documentation, and instances of outright illegality.

Cardoso emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “We refused to validate them because, apart from the fact that documentation was not satisfactory in many cases, they were outright illegal.”

He underscored the commitment of law enforcement agencies to investigate these transactions thoroughly.

Despite concerns about potential backlogs among stakeholders, Cardoso assured that the market remains open and transparent for addressing any outstanding contractual obligations.

The CBN has diligently verified and settled recognized backlogs of forward transactions.

This revelation comes at a critical juncture as Nigeria grapples with economic challenges, including inflationary pressures.

The MPC’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 24.75 percent reflects efforts to stabilize prices and restore the purchasing power of the average Nigerian.

As investigations unfold and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, the CBN’s commitment to transparency and financial integrity will be closely monitored by stakeholders across the nation.

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