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Inflation Rate Predicted to Reduce Further in April

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  • Inflation Rate Predicted to Reduce Further in April

The year-on-year inflation rate has been predicted to drop further in April.

According to analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to drop to 17.11 per cent in April, from the 17.26 per cent recorded in the month of March 2017. FSDH Merchant, which stated this in its latest inflation forecast noted that although it noticed increases in the prices of food and non-food classification for the fourth consecutive month, the base effect in the CCPI in April 2016 will be responsible for the drop in the inflation rate.

Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, the bureau is expected to release the inflation rate for the month of April 2017 next week.

“Our analysis indicates that the value of the naira appreciated at the inter-bank market, while it depreciated at the parallel market. The naira gained by 0.16 per cent at the inter-bank market to close at US$/N305.85 while it lost 0.25 per cent at the parallel market to close at US$/N396 at the end of April.

“The fall in the international prices of food helped to counter the effect of the depreciation in the value of the naira at the parallel market. The appreciation of the naira in the inter-bank market and the drop in the prices of food at the international market led to a moderation in the prices of consumer goods in Nigeria,” the firm added.

It further stated that its model indicated that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in April 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 226.01 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.48 per cent.

Similarly, the Economic Intelligence Group of Access Bank Plc has estimated that inflation rate (year-on-year) to trend downwards. But the bank in a report predicted 17.05 per cent in April 2017, from the 17.3 per cent posted in March 2017.

“As usual, our methodology adopts an autoregressive analysis of past prices, while it recognises all the assumptions used by the NBS in its computation of monthly CCPI. The expected moderation in inflation is chiefly attributable to an anticipated downward movement in the food and core sub-indexes.

“Price movements for major commodity groups in the food basket, which makes up over half of the CPI basket, remained muted in April. Based on an independent survey, vegetable oils, rice, and flour trended downwards, while the price of garri, potatoes and noodles were stable.

“Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce, is expected to extend its downward trend in April. This partially reflects the effects of currency appreciation in the parallel market. Month-on-month, the naira appreciated by 8.32 per cent as the Central Bank maintained the tempo of interventions in the forex market.

The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) released recently showed that the Index averaged 168 points, 1.84 per cent lower than the revised value for March 2017, but 9.93 per cent higher than the April 2016 figure.

According to the FAO, sugar prices dropped the most, vegetable oils, dairy and cereal prices also declined. However, prices of meat continued to trend upward since the beginning of the year. The continued weak global import demand and improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions continued to weigh on the prices of sugar. Hence, the FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 9.07 per cent in April 2017 to a 12-month low.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 3.92 per cent, driven by a fall in prices of palm and soy-oil, the key commodities in the Index.

The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 3.28 per cent from March 2017 to April 2017. Milk powders and cheese were the main commodities affected. Butter prices on the other hand, rose amid reduced exports.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.2 per cent from the previous month, due to the continued fall in the prices of wheat. Good production prospects in 2017/18 season continued to weigh on the prices of most cereals.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

World Bank Commits Over $15 Billion to Support Nigeria’s Economic Reforms

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The World Bank has pledged over $15 billion in technical advisory and financial support to help the country achieve sustainable economic prosperity.

This commitment, announced in a feature article titled “Turning The Corner: Nigeria’s Ongoing Path of Economic Reforms,” underscores the international lender’s confidence in Nigeria’s recent bold reforms aimed at stabilizing and growing its economy.

The World Bank’s support will be channeled into key sectors such as reliable power and clean energy, girls’ education and women’s economic empowerment, climate adaptation and resilience, water and sanitation, and governance reforms.

The bank lauded Nigeria’s government for its courageous steps in implementing much-needed reforms, highlighting the unification of multiple official exchange rates, which has led to a market-determined official rate, and the phasing out of the costly gasoline subsidy.

“These reforms are crucial for Nigeria’s long-term economic health,” the World Bank stated. “The supply of foreign exchange has improved, benefiting businesses and consumers, while the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates has narrowed, enhancing transparency and curbing corrupt practices.”

The removal of the gasoline subsidy, which had cost the country over 8.6 trillion naira (US$22.2 billion) from 2019 to 2022, was particularly noted for its potential to redirect fiscal resources toward more impactful public investments.

The World Bank pointed out that the subsidy primarily benefited wealthier consumers and fostered black market activities, rather than aiding the poor.

The bank’s article emphasized that Nigeria is at a turning point, with macro-fiscal reforms expected to channel more resources into sectors critical for improving citizens’ lives.

The World Bank’s support is designed to sustain these reforms and expand social protection for the poor and vulnerable, aiming to put the economy back on a sustainable growth path.

In addition to this substantial support, the World Bank recently approved a $2.25 billion loan to Nigeria at a one percent interest rate to finance further fiscal reforms.

This includes $1.5 billion for the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation (RESET) Development Policy Financing, and $750 million for the NG Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Programme-for-Results (ARMOR).

“The future can be bright, and Nigeria can rise and serve as an example for the region on how macro-fiscal and governance reforms, along with continued investments in public goods, can accelerate growth and improve the lives of its citizens,” the World Bank concluded.

With this robust backing from the World Bank, Nigeria is well-positioned to tackle its economic challenges and embark on a path to sustained prosperity and development.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Food Inflation Hits 40.66% Year-on-Year in May 2024

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Nigeria’s food inflation rate surged to 40.66% on a year-on-year basis in May 2024, a significant increase from 24.82% recorded in May 2023.

The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlight the rising cost of essential food items, exacerbating the economic challenges faced by many Nigerians.

The NBS report attributes the steep rise in food inflation to substantial price increases in several staple items.

Notably, the prices of Semovita, Oatflake, Yam flour, Garri, and Beans saw considerable hikes.

In addition, the cost of Irish Potatoes, Yams, Water Yam, Palm Oil, and Vegetable Oil also climbed significantly. Within the protein category, Stockfish, Mudfish, Crayfish, Beef, Chicken, Pork, and Bush Meat experienced notable price jumps.

The month-on-month food inflation rate in May 2024 was 2.28%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the 2.50% recorded in April 2024.

This month-to-month decline was due to a slower rate of price increases for Palm Oil, Groundnut Oil, Yam, Irish Potatoes, Cassava Tuber, Wine, Bournvita, Milo, and Nescafe.

Despite the minor monthly decrease, the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending May 2024 was 34.06%.

This marks a significant rise of 10.41 percentage points from the average annual rate of 23.65% recorded in May 2023.

The sharp rise in food inflation is raising concerns among economic analysts and policymakers, as it significantly impacts the cost of living for Nigerians.

The rising food prices are straining household budgets and contributing to an overall inflation rate that threatens economic stability.

In response to the inflationary pressures, the Nigerian government and relevant stakeholders are being urged to implement effective measures to stabilize food prices and address the underlying causes of inflation.

Efforts to boost agricultural productivity, improve supply chains, and tackle market inefficiencies are seen as critical to mitigating the inflationary trend.

The NBS report underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to manage inflation and ensure food security for the population.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Climbs to 33.95% in May, NBS Reports

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 33.95% in May 2024, a slight increase from the 33.69% recorded in April.

This 0.26 percentage point rise underscores the ongoing economic challenges the country faces as it continues to grapple with rising prices and economic instability.

The report highlights that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate increased by 11.54 percentage points compared to May 2023, when the rate was 22.41%. This significant annual increase indicates a persistent upward trend in the cost of living for Nigerians over the past year.

However, the month-on-month analysis presents a mixed picture. The headline inflation rate for May 2024 was 2.14%, slightly lower than the 2.29% recorded in April 2024. This 0.15 percentage point decrease suggests a marginal slowdown in the rate at which prices are rising month by month.

Urban vs. Rural Inflation Rates

The NBS report also provides detailed insights into urban and rural inflation dynamics. In urban areas, the inflation rate in May 2024 stood at 36.34% on a year-on-year basis, a substantial 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.74% recorded in May 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation was 2.35%, down by 0.32 percentage points from April 2024’s rate of 2.67%.

Conversely, the rural inflation rate for May 2024 was 31.82% year-on-year, which is 10.63 percentage points higher than the 21.19% recorded in May 2023.

Month-on-month, rural inflation slightly increased to 1.94% from 1.92% in April 2024, indicating a steady rise in prices in rural regions.

Implications and Responses

The continuous rise in inflation, particularly in urban areas, poses significant challenges for the Nigerian economy.

The increase in prices for essential goods and services such as food, transportation, and housing is putting immense pressure on household budgets and the overall standard of living.

Economic analysts suggest that the persistent inflationary pressures are driven by several factors, including supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and fluctuating exchange rates. The impact of these factors is felt more acutely in urban areas, where the cost of living is inherently higher.

In response to these inflationary trends, policymakers are under pressure to implement measures that can stabilize prices and ease the financial burden on citizens.

Strategies such as tightening monetary policy, increasing food production, and improving supply chain efficiency are being considered to curb the rising inflation.

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