Connect with us

Forex

Why Currency Traders Should Literally Follow Trump Tweets

Published

on

  • Why Currency Traders Should Literally Follow Trump Tweets

When Donald Trump moves the foreign-exchange market with 140 characters or less, currency traders ought to jump on for the ride.

That’s the conclusion of a Deutsche Bank AG examination of how the president’s comments on Twitter affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus the yen, which is seen as the most responsive to potential changes in U.S. policy because of its perceived safe-haven status. The president’s proclivity for tweeting — and the ensuing jolts of volatility to largely placid markets — have been a boon for currency traders, causing transaction volumes to soar in some instances.

And @realDonaldTrump proclamations that spark a move of at least 25 pips in the currency pair over the next hour have seen that trend continue in the immediate future.

“Of those tweets, all have seen moves extend over a four-hour period and in none have moves been reversed over a 12-hour period,” Oliver Harvey, a London-based macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report Tuesday.

The connection between Twitter and the trade-weighted dollar is not of trifling consequence. As Harvey’s colleague, macro strategist Alan Ruskin, predicted after the election, “the U.S. dollar will not be subject to benign neglect” under this administration. Trump’s stated goals –- shrinking the trade deficit as well as bringing back factories from Mexico and China -– become easier to achieve on the margin with a weaker greenback.

The social-media platform is already fertile ground for investors (and even some ETFs!) looking to gain an edge in their trading decisions, and is undoubtedly one of the president’s favorite ways of communicating with the public.

But Trump’s ability to influence the world’s largest financial market via Twitter is limited, much as his position as head of state doesn’t give him the unfettered ability to implement his legislative agenda.

“The impact of Trump’s tweets on the foreign-exchange market has been low in aggregate,” writes Harvey. “The market also appears to be paying less attention.”

Some of the largest reactions in dollar/yen came during tweets shortly following the election and inauguration, though his more recent comments on North Korea have also captured the attention of traders.

Perhaps Trump and his surrogates could have a bigger impact on the currency market by going through the mainstream media sources that Trump often criticizes. The president’s remarks on April 12 to the Wall Street Journal that the dollar was “too strong” sent the greenback tumbling versus the yen, contributing to a three-session losing streak for the pair.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Naira

Naira’s Upsurge Strains Nigeria’s Foreign-Exchange Reserves

Published

on

New Naira notes

As the Nigerian Naira continued to rebound from its record low against its global counterparts, the nation’s foreign exchange reserves has been on the decline, according to the data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on its website.

CBN data showed liquid reserves have plummeted by 5.6% since March 18 to $31.7 billion as of April 12, the largest decline recorded over a similar period since April 2020.

The recent surge in the Naira follows a series of measures implemented by the Central Bank to liberalize the currency market and allow for a more flexible exchange rate system.

These measures included devaluing the Naira by 43% in January and implementing strategies to attract capital inflows while clearing the backlog of pent-up dollar demand.

Charles Robertson, the head of macro strategy at FIM Partners, acknowledged the Central Bank’s efforts to restore the Naira to a realistic exchange rate, suggesting that it aims to stimulate investment in the local currency and enhance liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

Despite the rapid depletion of foreign-exchange reserves, Nigeria still maintains a significant cushion, bolstered by a rally in oil prices and inflows from multilateral loans.

Gross reserves of approximately $32.6 billion provide coverage for about six months’ worth of imports, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The Central Bank’s disclosure last month that it had cleared a backlog of overdue dollar purchase agreements, estimated at $7 billion since the beginning of the year, indicates progress in addressing longstanding currency challenges.

However, uncertainties remain regarding the extent of dollar debt retained by the Central Bank as revealed by its financial statements late last year.

Furthermore, the decline in foreign-exchange reserves persists despite a surge in inflows into Nigeria’s capital markets, driven by interest rate hikes and increased attractiveness of local debt.

Foreign portfolio inflows exceeded $1 billion in February alone, contributing to a total of at least $2.3 billion received so far this year, according to central bank data.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves, anticipating stabilization or potential growth fueled by anticipated inflows from Afreximbank, the World Bank, and potential eurobond issuance.

Also, the resurgence of oil prices and the expected return of remittances through official channels offer prospects for replenishing reserves in the near future.

Continue Reading

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 17th, 2024

As of April 17th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,50 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

on

New Naira notes

As of April 17th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,50 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,70 and sell it at N1,060 on Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,050
  • Selling Rate: N1,040

Continue Reading

Naira

Naira Appreciates to N1,136/$ Officially, N1,050/$ Parallel Market

Published

on

naira

The Nigerian Naira appreciated to N1,136 against the United States Dollar at the official market and rose to N1,050 at the parallel market.

At the official foreign exchange market, data from the FMDQ Exchange revealed that the Naira strengthened by 6.1 percent or N69 from its previous rate of N1,205/$ recorded on Friday to N1,136/$ on Monday.

This surge underscores the effectiveness of recent foreign exchange directives implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), aimed at stabilizing the Naira and bolstering liquidity in the market.

At the parallel market, the Naira appreciated to N1,050 against the Dollar, reflecting an improvement in the currency’s value in informal trading circles.

This resurgence has brought renewed hope to traders and businesses operating in the informal sector, as they anticipate further strengthening of the Naira in the coming days.

The improved exchange rate follows a series of strategic interventions by the CBN to address foreign exchange challenges and stabilize the Naira.

The positive momentum in the forex market has been further reinforced by a surge in total inflows into the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), which increased by 41.7 percent to $3.75 billion in March, compared to $2.64 billion in February.

Commenting on the recent developments, analysts at Afrinvest expressed optimism about the continued strengthening of the Naira, attributing it to the CBN’s intensified efforts to bolster liquidity in the market.

They anticipate further improvements in the exchange rate as the apex bank maintains its proactive stance on forex management.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending