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NASI Sheds 0.77% as MPC Holds Rates

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private-equity
  • NASI Sheds 0.77% as MPC Holds Rates

The Nigerian Equities market closed under water Week-on-Week, declining by 0.77% to bring the Year-to-Date return to -5.28%. However, the volume of transactions and market turnover in the week advanced by 7.86% and 27.28% respectively. The market breadth closed at 0.53x reflecting eighteen (18) gainers and thirty-four (34) decliners in the week.

WAPCO emerged as the top outperformer this week, advancing by 13.92% to close at NGN41.01. FIDSON (+13.48%), LIVESTOCK (+10.94%) MOBIL (+6.16%), and CCNN (+4.44%) also featured on the list of outperformers. On the flip side, GUINNESS (-9.77%)pared the most in the week, with SEPLAT (-9.73%), DIAMONDBNK (-8.51%), UAC-PROP(-8.42%) and AFRIPRUD (-8.40%) trailing behind.

At the second Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for the year, the Committee voted to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%; CRR at 22.5%; maintain the asymmetric corridor at +200bps & -500bps; and also maintain the liquidity ratio at 30%.

Also, during the week, there were earnings releases by Stanbic IBTC Bank PLC (STANBIC), Unilever Nigeria Plc (UNILEVER), Lafarge Africa Plc (WAPCO) and Cadbury Nigeria PLC (CADBURY). The companies, save for CADBURY, proposed respective dividends of NGN0.05, NGN0.10 and NGN1.05 per share.

We attribute the weak market mood in the week to sell pressures on certain counters including large-cap stocks like GUINNESS and SEPLAT which recorded gains in the prior week. Based on the topsy-turvy trend of the market in recent weeks, we expect to see some bullish activity in the coming week.

This report reviews events in the current week, with emphasis on different segments of the financial market, while presenting our expectations for the coming week.

Fixed Income: Naira Appreciates to close at a 7 Month High of NGN390/USD

The aggressive intervention by the CBN impacted the Naira positively, as the currency appreciated by 25% from the rate of NGN520/USD in the last one month. Also, the Naira closed at NGN390/USD at the end of trading activities this week, appreciating by 13.33% WoW.

Financial system liquidity declined during the week, on the back of OMO sales worth NGN66.01bn. Although the average money market rate advanced to 100.04% the day after the OMO sales, the rate settled at 7.50% at the close of the week, indicating a decline of 7.17% WoW.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held a Treasury Bills Primary Auction on Wednesday, 22nd March, 2017. T-bills worth NGN134.97bn matured and an equivalent sum was re-issued. However, the 91-day instrument was undersubscribed, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.61x. Meanwhile, the 182-day and 364-day instruments recorded bid-to-cover ratios of 1.20x and 1.09x respectively. The discount rates at the auction on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day instruments were 13.55%, 17.2% and 18.69% respectively. In the secondary market, sell sentiments characterized the treasury bills space as the average yield advanced by 1.18% WoW.

Activities in the treasury bonds space were characterized by bullish sentiments as yields trended downwards across various instruments during the week. This was further augmented by the week on week decline of 0.12% in the average bond yield, to settle at 16.33%.

Agricultural Sector: MERI-AGRI Advances Marginally

The Agricultural sector, as measured by the MERI-AGRI index, advanced marginally to overturn the prior week’s performance. It advanced by 0.008% WoW, to push the YtD return to 18.26%. The sector recorded one gainer, and no loser at the close of trading this week.

LIVESTOCK featured on the gainers’ chart, after declining for four consecutive weeks. The ticker advanced by 10.94%, to close at NGN0.71.

This week recorded no share price movements on the sector’s heavyweights. Therefore, the bargain hunting activities on the low-priced LIVESTOCK resulted in the sector’s positive, albeit marginal, performance.

Banking Sector: GUARANTY Closes at NGN26.50

The banking sector, as measured by the MERI-BNK index, closed negative this week at -1.65% from a previous week’s gain of 2.82%, to settle the YtD return at +2.13%. One (1) stock recorded share price appreciation, while nine (9) stocks declined in the week and six (6) counters traded flat, to bring the sector breadth to 0.11x.

GUARANTY emerged as the lone gainer for the week, advancing by 0.76% to close at NGN26.50. On the other hand, DIAMONDBNK (-8.51%)recorded a significant decline this week, putting it at the top of the losers’ list. Other top losers for the week were FIDELITYBK (-5.81%), ETI (-5.36%), ACCESS (-5.13%)and ZENITHBANK (-4.53%).

Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC (STANBIC) released its FY2016 result during the week, which showed Year-on-Year (YoY) growths in revenue, Profit-Before-Tax and Profit-After-Tax of 11.71%, 57.33% and 50.97% respectively. The company proposed a final dividend of 5 kobo/share, representing a dividend yield of 0.28%, based on the closing price of NGN17.71 on the 24th of March, 2017.

We attribute the loss in the week to investors’ skepticism on the subsequentearnings releases, as well as profit taking activities on counters that have hitherto enjoyed positive sentiments. In the coming week, we expect the current trend to reverse.

Consumer Goods:Sector Returns -0.31% WoW

The consumer goods sector closed on a negative note, after losing on three (3) out of five (5) trading days of the week. Consequently, sector index as measured by the NSEFBT10 indexdeclined by0.31% WoW to settle the YtD return at -12.10%. Sector breadth closed at 0.38x, reflecting three (3) outperformers against eight (8) underperformers, while other counters traded flat.

NESTLE (+2.60%)led the gainers’ chart for the week, closing at NGN749.00. Other counters that featured on the chart were VITAFOAM (+2.56%) and NASCON(+1.47%). Conversely, GUINNESS (-9.77%)was the worst performer in the week.The ticker was trailed by CADBURY (-6.49%), UNILEVER (-5.00%), INTBREW (-4.46%), HONYFLOUR (-2.86%), 7UP (-2.19%), FLOURMILL (-1.96%) and DANGSUGAR (-0.48%).

In the week, Unilever Nigeria PLC (UNILEVER) and Cadbury Nigeria Plc (CADBURY) released their FY2016 results. Both companies recorded Year-on-Year (YoY) growths of 17.82% and 8.74% respectively in revenue.UNILEVER also recorded 131.86% and 157.63% growth in Profit-Before-Tax and Profit-After-Tax respectively, and proposed a dividend of NGN0.10/share, representing a dividend yield of 0.31% based on today’s closing price of NGN32.30. However, CADBURY slid into a Loss-After-Tax position of -NGN0.30bn, implying a YoY decline of 125.70%.

We attribute the sector’s performance to sell pressures on some counters that had recorded price appreciation in previous weeks. We expect the current mood to reverse, as the sector oscillates between gains and losses weekly.

Healthcare Sector:FIDSON Gains 13.48% WoW

The MERI-HLTH returned 0.03% WoW, moderating the YtD loss to -7.65%. Sector breadth settled at equilibrium (1.00x), indicating one (1) gainer and loser apiece.

FIDSON emerged as the lone gainer in the sector, advancing significantly by 13.48% WoW to close at NGN1.01. NEIMETH, on the other hand, shed 6.56% WoW to settle at NGN0.57 after reaching its year-low at NGN0.56.

We attribute the positive sentiments witnessed in the sector this week to bargain hunting on FIDSON after weeks of consecutive declines. We, however, expect some sell pressures in the coming week in anticipation of weak FY2016 earnings releases from sector companies.

Industrial Goods Sector:WAPCO Records the Highest Gain

The Industrial Goods Sector, as measured by the NSEIND index, advanced by 5.14% WoW, to bring the Year-to-Date return to -2.05%. There were three (3) gainers and losers apiece, settling the sector breadth at an equilibrium.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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