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With Local Content, Strong Economy is Possible

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yemi osinbajo
  • With Local Content, Strong Economy is Possible

The failure of the leadership to maximise Nigeria’s enormous potential has been making the country suffer different economic woes.

Right now, Nigeria is wrestling with recession. And not a few actual and perceived economists have employed different nomenclatures like compression and depression to illustrate the state of the economy, while also making projections on where the country will be if the current negative economic trend continues.

Therefore, Nigeria requires diverse activities that are well situated to fuel the economy for a quick recovery from the current quagmire it’s in.

And to address the myriads of problems it presently faces, suggestions from some tested experts both from within and outside of the country have largely been in favour of aggressive reform of institutions and provision of enabling grounds for suitable hands to deliver viable economic outputs.

Clearly, the need to accentuate and achieve these critical national objectives can be identified in the theme and structure of the just concluded Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, famously called NOG, Africa’s leading oil and gas conference which for the past 16 years has been gathering influential operators and relevant stakeholders in the oil and gas sector for development and to deepen business opportunities.

Actually, today’s topic, Fuelling the Economy, was taken from one of NOG’s agenda for this year’s edition. It is a welcome coincidence, you will agree, given the nation’s pressing needs, and the necessity of charting a way forward. Listed under this agenda by the conference organisers are Nigerians whose operations in the oil and gas industry are deemed germane to the solutions that the Nigerian government seeks in moving quickly out of recession.

Dr. Ladi Bada, CEO of Shoreline Natural Resources, Mr. Demola Adeyemo-Bero, managing director of First E&P and Mr. Taofik Adegbite, chief executive officer of Marine Platforms to mention just a few of the top industry players in attendance, were on hand to offer wider perspectives for a good way forward for Nigeria.

Adegbite’s Marine Platforms is a fascinating case study on how well wholly-indigenous Nigerian companies can perform in demonstrating Nigeria’s local capacity and competence in the technical areas of the oil and gas industry; and at the same time, how difficult it is for most Nigerian companies to keep the momentum of success in a business environment that is full of confusing policies and overlapping regulations.

In the first panel discussion, Adegbite duly affirmed the benefit of the Nigerian Local Content law which he said had provided the legal framework that enabled his company and several others to participate fully in the industry and to help retain in Nigeria billions of dollars that were constantly being repatriated from the country by foreigners due to previous lack of acknowledgment of the capability of Nigerians to take the local jobs available in the sector.

Adegbite therefore attributed the tremendous success made by his company, and the massive contribution his firm is making to the Nigerian economy, to the enactment and operation of a law that serves to empower Nigerian people and the economy.

Conversely, the CEO also shared the pains his firm is facing and unusual resilience being put up by his organisation, and possibly other Nigerian companies to remain virile during this tough moment.

And he admonished the government to tidy up its policies and laws so as to create more opportunities than stumbling blocks.

Interestingly, almost all the speakers on the panel, who were carefully drawn to represent the regulators, legislature and the operators, seemed to agree on the major problems plaguing the industry, and slowing down its gains to the country.

Really, the many paradoxes and contradictions in the Nigerian system deserve an urgent elimination for the country to attain greater heights and for the injection of necessary energy into the economy. Contributions from other members especially from those on the side of the government were disturbing as they confirmed the fears of many on the disruptions and uncertainties in the business atmosphere that were perhaps unwittingly created by the government itself.

Representing the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), a major regulator of the industry, in the discussion, Ms. Patricia Maseli, expressed frustration on the different means of control of the sector and opined that the various regulatory agencies presently in place need to be streamlined.

Similarly, the head of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), the government agency that oversees the local content policy, Mr. Simbi Wabote, raised concern on some of the policies affecting quick attainment of the goals of the NCDMB.

Wabote also cited the example of a ridiculous policy that allows foreign operators to bring vessels in on a Temporary Import Permit (TIP) at a low rate while indigenous vessel owners are made to cough out Full Duty Payment (FDP), a higher cost on their assets.

Strangely, and quite so often, it seems to be quite easy for us to locate the part where the shoe pinches. On the other hand, we are ever so reluctant to undertake the proper action of ditching the discomforting footwear and seeking better replacement.

Of course, we all know before this more difficult time that it takes someone with steely will to function well in Nigeria’s business climate. From appalling infrastructure to needless bureaucracy of company registration procedures, unabated insecurity, the demoralising rigour of accessing funds and to other encumbrances, many potentially viable business initiatives are dead even before starting off.

It is actually quite sickening to imagine that it took continuous intensification of the World Bank’s current poor ranking of Nigeria as 169th out of 190 countries on its ease of doing business index to make us sit tight to discuss serious business in all spheres of our development.

Even though Nigerians have seen, quite regularly, lots of sitting for critical national issues which ended as permanently quashing of transformative actions, we can see promise in the decision of the Acting President Yemi Osinbajo, who has been holding fort quite effectively for the President, to recently roll out a 60-day national action plan to strengthen Nigeria’s economy with focus on ease of business for both local and foreign enterprises.

In the same manner, the minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu and the group managing director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Dr. Maikanto Baru, who both spoke at the NOG, freshly promised to deliver on the rejuvenation of the perennially sickly Nigerian refineries.

For as long as I can recall, Nigerians have been groaning about the deplorable state of the country’s three existing refineries, and its attendant effects on the lives of the masses who are end users of different petroleum products.

But shamefully, despite several previous promises of revamp by the government, the refineries with combined installed capacity of 445, 000 barrels per day, still struggle to churn out just about 21, 000 barrels per day. Nonetheless, Nigerians are still counting on the renewed commitment of Buhari’s administration to deliver change in that aspect, and across all sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, it should be consistently emphasised that there is actually need for sufficient fuel to power the thinking of the individual behind the country’s policies and regulatory agencies to conduct economic affairs in ways that will deepen more business activities in the country.

And this is because the country is indeed endowed with people with enormous capacity and resources to get the economy on a fast pace.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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