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As MPC Meets Tomorrow, Analysts Predict Rates Retention to Further Check Inflation

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • As MPC Meets Tomorrow, Analysts Predict Rates Retention to Further Check Inflation

As the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) converge in Abuja tomorrow for its maiden meeting this year, economic analysts have predicted that its members would vote for retention of the policy rates.

Specifically, the analysts believe the best way the CBN could go with the current challenges in the economy is to hold the monetary policy rate (MPR) so as not exacerbate the rising inflation, currently at 18.55 per cent, especially with widespread speculation of fuel price increase. It is one of the analysts’ view that, if the MPC decides against policy shift, the apex bank could avoid the wrath of the real sector, which is already groaning under monetary policy-induced challenges.

The MPR, which is the benchmark interest rate was retained at 14 per cent by MPC at its 253rd meeting in November last year. It predicated its decision on the need to mitigate the fragile macroeconomic conditions and the strong headwinds confronting the economy, particularly the implications of the twin deficits of current account and budget deficits. Besides retaining the MPR, the MPC also held the banks’ cash reserve requirement (CRR) and liquidity ratio (LR) at 22.5 per cent and 30 per cent respectively while further maintaining the Asymmetric Window at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

The Chief Economist and Managing Director, Global Research, Africa, Standard Chartered Bank, Razia Khan, who presented the bank’s position, noted that “The absence of any further policy measures on FX liberalisation suggests that the CBN will be quite comfortable keeping interest rates on hold at next week’s MPC meeting.”

“Although inflation has been pressured higher, further tightening would be more plausible if there was some expectation that it might trigger a positive response from offshore portfolio investors, and bring about greater FX inflows. These plans look to have been put on the backburner for the moment,” Khan added.

Asking, “Could the CBN cut interest rates?”, Khan said, “We think not, despite weak growth.”

According to her, “Inflation in y/y terms is likely to remain elevated for a while still. There is also some disquiet about the recent spike in money supply, and how much of an inflation threat it represents. The CBN may well have to wait for evidence of a pronounced base effect driving y/y inflation down, before it can think about easing policy.”

In his analysis, The Chief Executive Officer, The CFG Advisory, Adetilewa Adebajo, stated that the main challenge for the MPC this New Year is “taming the inflation monster.”

“At 18.6 per cent inflation is at a 10-year high. It is also likely that 2016 Q4 GDP growth will close around -2 per cent in negative territory. Since there is a strong historical correlation in Nigeria between positive GDP growth and lower rates of inflation, the MPC will have to adapt inflation reduction policies to expect positive GDP growth in 2017.”

Adebajo contended that, “The prospects of increasing interest rates to tame inflation might not go down well with the Real Sector, but the impending increase in fuel pump prices and the related impact on spiking inflation will present a dilemma for the MPC. While a pre-emptive rise in rates might be strongly considered, it is likely that the MPC will hold rates and maintain status quo.”

Besides, the economist noted that, “The markets will also look for comments from the MPC, in an effort to restore confidence and harmonize the FX markets.”

To the Executive Director, Corporate Finance, BGL Capital Ltd, Femi Ademola, “The outcome of the MPC meeting is the most difficult to predict in recent times.”

According to him, “Judging from the antecedents of this Committee, the exchange rate volatility and high inflation would naturally signify an increase in interest rate and other macro-prudential ratios in the bid to fight inflation and attract supply of foreign exchange into the economy by ensuring a positive real return on portfolio investments.”

Ademola, however, added that, “Since these actions have not been so successful over the year in curbing inflation and exchange rate volatility, it would be very reasonable to consider monetary accommodation. Especially when it appears that the high interest rate with its consequent high cost of funds and high cost of production may be the main cause of inflation.”

“A reduction in benchmark interest and a systematic release of liquidity into the economy would help domestic production capacity and boost economic activities.

Due to this seemingly conflicting situations, I think the MPC will hold rates constant,” he posited.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Crude Oil

Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Energy

Nigeria Targets $5bn Investments in Oil and Gas Sector, Says Government

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Nigeria is setting its sights on attracting $5 billion worth of investments in its oil and gas sector, according to statements made by government officials during an oil and gas sector retreat in Abuja.

During the retreat organized by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, explained the importance of ramping up crude oil production and creating an environment conducive to attracting investments.

He highlighted the need to work closely with agencies like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to achieve these goals.

Lokpobiri acknowledged the challenges posed by issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism but expressed confidence in the government’s ability to tackle them effectively.

He stressed the necessity of a globally competitive regulatory framework to encourage investment in the sector.

The minister’s remarks were echoed by Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, who spoke at the 2024 Strategic Women in Energy, Oil, and Gas Leadership Summit.

Kyari stressed the critical role of energy in driving economic growth and development and explained that Nigeria still faces challenges in providing stable electricity to its citizens.

Kyari outlined NNPCL’s vision for the future, which includes increasing crude oil production, expanding refining capacity, and growing the company’s retail network.

He highlighted the importance of leveraging Nigeria’s vast gas resources and optimizing dividend payouts to shareholders.

Overall, the government’s commitment to attracting $5 billion in investments reflects its determination to revitalize the oil and gas sector and drive economic growth in Nigeria.

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Commodities

Palm Oil Rebounds on Upbeat Malaysian Exports Amid Indonesian Supply Concerns

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Palm Oil - Investors King

Palm oil prices rebounded from a two-day decline on reports that Malaysian exports will be robust this month despite concerns over potential supply disruptions from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter.

The market saw a significant surge as Malaysian export figures for the current month painted a promising picture.

Senior trader David Ng from IcebergX Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur attributed the morning’s gains to Malaysia’s strong export performance, with shipments climbing by a notable 14% during March 1-25 compared to the previous month.

Increased demand from key regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East contributed to this impressive growth, as reported by Intertek Testing Services.

However, amidst this positivity, investors are closely monitoring developments in Indonesia. The Indonesian government’s contemplation of revising its domestic market obligation policy, potentially linking it to production rather than exports, has stirred market concerns.

Edy Priyono, a deputy at the presidential staff office in Jakarta, indicated that this proposed shift aims to mitigate vulnerability to fluctuations in export demand.

Yet, it could potentially constrain supply availability from Indonesia in the future to stabilize domestic prices.

This uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies has added a layer of complexity to palm oil market dynamics, prompting investors to react cautiously despite Malaysia’s promising export performance.

The prospect of Indonesian supply disruptions underscores the delicacy of global palm oil supply chains and their susceptibility to geopolitical and regulatory factors.

As the market navigates these developments, stakeholders remain attentive to both export data from Malaysia and policy shifts in Indonesia, recognizing their significant impact on palm oil prices and market stability.

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