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Soros Says Markets to Slump With Trump, EU Faces Disintegration

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Brexit
  • Soros Says Markets to Slump With Trump, EU Faces Disintegration

It’s tough to be gloomier than billionaire George Soros right now.

America has elected a would-be dictator as president, the European Union is disintegrating, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won’t last long as her nation prepares to secede from the EU, and China is poised to become an even more repressive society, the investor told Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua from the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“It is unlikely that Prime Minister May is actually going to remain in power,” Soros said. She has a divided cabinet and base and Britons are in denial about the economic impact of Brexit, he said.

On Tuesday May, who took office in July after the U.K. voted to leave the EU, set out her strategy for a clean break from the 28-nation trade bloc and pitched the nation as open to making free trade deals globally.

Soros had particularly harsh words for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on Friday. Calling Trump a “con man,” Soros said the billionaire will fail because his ideas are contradictory and his White House advisers and cabinet members will fight with each other, an apparent reference to the conflicting views expressed during Senate confirmation hearings. The stock market rally since the November election, spurred by Trump’s promises to slash regulations and boost spending, will come to a halt, Soros said.

“Uncertainty is at a peak, and actually uncertainty is the enemy of long-term investment,” said Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management. “I don’t think the markets are going to do very well. Right now they’re still celebrating. But when reality comes, it will prevail.”

Soros’s Bad Bet

Soros’s pessimism has been costly to him. He lost nearly $1 billion as a result of the rally spurred by Trump’s surprise win, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month. The octogenarian’s wagers became more bearish immediately after Trump’s victory, but the S&P 500 Index has jumped 5.8 percent since Election Day.

The EU, Soros added, is disintegrating following last year’s Brexit vote and Italian referendum — a course that must be reversed. The trading bloc has become dysfunctional because it is governed by laws that are “not appropriate to the current circumstances” and not easily changed, he said.

“If Europe breaks down, the consequences will be very dire,” the investor said. “But I do see a way it could be saved, and this is also recognized by many of the people in Brussels. They can’t say so publicly, but they know that Europe is not functioning.”

China Pessimism

Soros continued to take a dim view on China, saying the nation is at a decision point and must choose whether to become a more open or closed society as it transitions to a consumer-led economy.

“China has not actually succeeded yet in changing its growth model and probably won’t do it in the next two years because Xi Jinping wants to maintain an unsustainable rate of growth,” he said. Xi “is doing that by rekindling the furnaces and producing more goods that are already in supply.”

Soros’s outlook on China has yet to prove accurate. At last year’s Davos gathering, Soros said China’s economy is facing a hard landing, a situation that will contribute to global deflationary pressures and prompted him to wager against U.S. stocks.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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