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Yellen Backs Gradual Rate Rises as Fed Not Behind the Curve

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Yellen
  • Yellen Backs Gradual Rate Rises as Fed Not Behind the Curve

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen backed a strategy for gradually raising interest rates, arguing that the central bank wasn’t behind the curve in containing inflation pressures but nevertheless can’t afford to allow the economy to run too hot.

“I consider it prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time,” she said Thursday in remarks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in California, while stressing the considerable doubt surrounding that outlook.

Yellen’s second speech this week comes just a day before the inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president. She said that future alterations in fiscal policy were just one of the many uncertainties that the Fed would have to grapple with as it plots its monetary moves in the months ahead.

Not only is the size, timing and composition of such changes unclear, estimates of their impact on the economy by budget experts vary considerably, Yellen noted in a footnote to the speech.

“She doesn’t feel like the economy is overheating,” said Laura Rosner, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Nothing in her speech gave a strong signal that a hike is coming in March.” Policy makers next meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1, followed by a gathering on March 14-15.

In making the case that the Fed had not fallen behind the curve, Yellen said that wages had risen “only modestly” and the manufacturing sector was operating well below capacity.

‘Seems Unlikely’

What’s more, she didn’t see that changing soon. Payroll growth has slowed while the economic expansion “seems unlikely to pick up markedly in the near term” given weak foreign demand and prospective gradual increases in interest rates, she said.

Still, she saw dangers in permitting the economy to overheat and inflation expectations to get out of control. “Allowing the economy to run markedly and persistently ‘hot’ would be risky and unwise,” she said.

Another factor arguing for a gradual approach to raising interest rates is what Yellen called a “passive” removal of monetary accommodation via the Fed’s balance sheet.

In another footnote to her speech, Yellen said a shortening in the average maturity of the central bank’s bond holdings and the approach of an eventual reduction in its balance sheet could increase the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by 15 basis points this year. That would be roughly equivalent to two 25 basis point increase in the inter-bank federal funds rate. She did not say when the reduction in the balance sheet would begin.

The Fed raised interest rates in December for the first time in a year, lifting its target range for the benchmark federal funds rate to 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent. Policy makers have penciled in three quarter-point increases for 2017, according to the median of their quarterly estimates in December.

Yellen spelled out in detail a point that she also made in her shorter speech on Wednesday, namely, that the Fed was close to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices.

The jobless rate stood at 4.7 percent in December, slightly below the level most Fed policy makers view as full employment.

“In the coming months, I expect some further strengthening in labor market conditions as the economy continues to expand at a moderate pace,” Yellen said.

The “strong labor market” should help lift inflation to the Fed’s 2 percent goal over the next couple of years, she added.

As measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index, inflation rose 1.4 percent in the 12 months through November. That’s up markedly from 0.5 percent on the same basis in November 2015, in part because of a rebound in oil prices.

Answering audience questions, Yellen described the risks to stability of the financial system as “moderate” and nowhere near as big as they were in the midst of the 2008-09 crisis. “There’s a little less to lose sleep about now,” she said.

One potential danger on the U.S. central bank’s radar screen: financial developments in China, though Yellen said the Fed thinks the Asian nation has the ability to deal with them.

Yellen and Taylor

Yellen spent much of her speech discussing the benefits and drawbacks of using simple rules to guide monetary policy, such as one developed by John Taylor, a scholar at the Stanford Institute and a professor at Stanford University.

In response to a question from Taylor, who was in the audience, Yellen said she believed in “systematic monetary policy” but was opposed to efforts by Republican lawmakers to force the Fed to adopt a rule of its own choosing to guide policy.

While rules can serve as “useful benchmarks,” they often do not take into account important factors potentially affecting the economic outlook, such as fiscal policy, she said in her speech.

Given all the uncertainties, determining how best to adjust interest rates to sustain a strong jobs market while maintaining low and stable inflation “will not be easy,” Yellen said.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Petrol

Three Oil Companies Ask Court To Stop NMDPRA From Seizing Their Petrol Import Licences, Accuse Dangote Refinery of Monopoly

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

In response to Dangote Refinery N1 billion suit, three oil companies including Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, A.A. Rano Limited, and AYM Shafa Limited, have prayed the Federal High Court in Abuja to stop the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) from reviewing or withdrawing their import licenses.

The oil companies also urged the court not to block them from importing petrol in the interest of energy security and promotion of healthy competition in the Nigerian oil and gas sector.

Dangote Refinery had approached the court and filed and a N100 billion suit in damages against NMDPRA for allegedly continuing to issue import licenses to NNPCL, Matrix, and other companies for importing petroleum products such as Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Jet Fuel (Aviation Turbine Fuel), despite that the refinery is producing the products in quantity that meets Nigerians’ needs.

The refinery also dragged NNPCL, AYM Shafa Limited, A.A. Rano Limited, T. Time Petroleum Limited, 2015 Petroleum Limited, and Matrix Petroleum Services Limited in the suit.

Counsel to Dangote Refinery, Ogwu James Onoja SAN, in the originating summons, dated September 6, 2024, claimed that NMDPRA contravened Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) by issuing import licenses for petroleum products.

Onoja stated that such licenses should only be granted in cases of petroleum product shortages and not when Dangote Refinery is meeting the needs of the populace.

According to Onoja, NMDPRA has been discouraging local refiners such as Dangote Refinery by its actions.

Responding to the suit through their written address and counter-affidavit, dated November 5, 2024, and filed by Ahmed Raji SAN, the three oil companies said their businesses do not in any way hamper, disrupt, or harm Dangote Refinery’s operations.

The three defendants claimed the plaintiff allegedly sought to monopolise the petroleum industry in Nigeria, where it alone would control supply, distribution, and pricing.

In the defendants’ affidavit, deposed by Ali Ibrahim Abiodun, Acting Managing Director of AYM Shafa (with the consent and authority of Matrix, A.A. Rano, and AYM), it was stated that the defendants are qualified and capable of being licensed as importers of refined petroleum products under Section 317(9) of the PIA and that their licenses to import such products were lawfully issued by the appropriate authority, NMDPRA.

The deponent claimed that it typically takes an average of two months for Dangote Refinery to fulfill orders and that it rarely meets demand, with trucks waiting for months to be loaded at the refinery.

In contrast, he claimed it takes about three weeks to import petroleum products from offshore refineries.

The affidavit revealed that A.A. Rano’s oil depot in Lagos has a storage capacity of 55,000,000 liters and can load about 200 trucks per 24 hours.

The deponent stated that the company also owns 220 filling stations and another 85 affiliates and leased filling stations.

According to the deponent, AA Rano was one of the first to take delivery of AGO from Dangote Refinery, loading 20,000 MT of AGO on or about April 16, 2024, and has since purchased and loaded additional cargoes totaling approximately 190,000,000 liters.

Despite this patronage, the affidavit claimed that Dangote Refinery has continued to place obstacles that make it difficult for A.A. Rano to purchase products solely from the refinery.

The oil companies called on the court to dismiss the suit.

Meanwhile, the court adjourned the matter till January 20, 2025, for a status report.

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Energy

Malaysia’s CNG Ban Sparks Debate in Nigeria as Tinubu Pushes for CNG Adoption

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Nigerians on and off social media have expressed concern following a recent decision by the Malaysian government to phase out Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles by July 2025.

While the Nigerian government continues to urge citizens to use CNG as a cleaner, cheaper fuel alternative to petrol, Anthony Loke, Malaysian Transport Minister, questioned the safety of CNG.

Announcing the ban, the Malaysian Minister highlighted the risk associated with CNG vehicles, especially after tanks exceeded their 15-year safe usage limit.

Minister Loke announced the ban while speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, November 6.

The Malaysian Minister disclosed that the ban will affect over 44,000 vehicles in Malaysia, including private cars, taxis, buses, and industrial machinery.

According to Loke, “These NGV tanks have a safe usage lifespan of approximately 15 years, and if they are not replaced, they become unsafe to use and may fail at any time.”

Loke announced that the phase-out will be in stages with the first being the halting of CNG sales by the state oil and gas corporation, Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) at its stations starting July 1, 2025.

The latest development has sparked numerous reactions as Nigerians criticized the Tinubu government for adopting CNG amid Malaysia’s phase-out.

Reacting to the development, @Gozie_mu wrote, “Nigeria to embrace it because we are the world’s dumping site.”

Another user, @iniekott, wrote: “Meanwhile, Nigerian rulers are putting CNG forward as a safe alternative to petrol.

“Note the clear-headed and tangible provisions made by the Malaysian government to help citizens with the transition.”

“Malaysia introduced CNG in the 1990s; now they are stopping it in 2024, while Bola and his supporters are asking Nigerians to change to CNG. APC is taking you 34 years backwards, but some of you’re defending it,” a user, PaschalNwosu5 wrote.

#SmartAtuadi criticized the government’s carelessness saying, “Nigeria seems determined to promote CNG without considering the safety implications that Malaysia has raised.”

Many others called on the government and government officials to lead by example by converting their vehicles to CNG before urging Nigerians to do so.

#Oserume1 commented, “If CNG was a good idea, Tinubu would have converted his official luxury Cadillac Escalade from petrol to CNG!”

@ekenezion said, “The president refused to convert his Escalade to CNG.”

@buzuzu7 opined, “I will only embrace this if all ministers and the presidency lead by example. I can’t be your guinea pig.”

The Nigerian government had since reacted to the CNG ban in Malaysia.

The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, in his statement said the planned phase-out by the Malaysian government speaks more to the safety of LPG and not the safety of CNG.

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Energy

National Grid Collapses Twice in Two Days, Nigerians Express Frustration

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Electricity

The Nigerian National Grid has announced yet another collapse, marking the second occurrence in just two days. 

The collapse of the Grid was made known by the Nigeria National Grid via its official page on the X platform. 

Following the Grid collapse, the Jos Electricity Distribution PLC, released an apology statement through the Head of Corporate Communications, Friday Elijah, stating that the grid has collapsed and assuring Nigerians that the power will be restored to normal soon 

“The current outage being experienced within our franchise States is a result of loss of power supply from the national grid. The loss of power supply from the national grid occurred this morning at about 1128 hours of today, Thursday, 7th November 2024, hence the loss of power supply on all our feeders,” the statement read. 

In a similar vein, Ikeja Electric PLC apologised to its customers regarding the grid that collapsed. It said, “Please be informed that we experienced a system outage today 07 November, 2024 at 11:29Hrs affecting supply within our network.” Adding that “Restoration of supply is ongoing in collaboration with our critical stakeholders.” 

It should be noted that the grid collapsed on Tuesday and shortly after power was restored, the grid reportedly collapsed again on Thursday.

Moreover, the recent Grid collapse has garnered eyebrows from netizens showing discontent towards the constant collapse of the electricity grid. 

One netizen with the user name @Aumarsafana2917 tweeted “Enough of all these stories now, we’re tired. We’ve heard them enough.” 

Another X user, @ikbank tweeted “ This has become so absurd. Are we now living in a nation where things no longer work? For crying out loud, how many things are we going to continuously experience this collapse (outage). Why can’t things work effectively with minimal stress. So tiring!” 

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