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Hope Rises as Reserves Rebound to $25.8b

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CBN
  • Hope Rises as Reserves Rebound to $25.8b in New Year

With persistent and gradual gains in the last three months, the nation’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves ended 2016 at $25.78 billion, after gaining $420 million in seven days.

The resurging reserves’ profile is raising the hopes for calm forex market activities in 2017, if the trend subsists, as it would curtail panic and speculative demands, which affect the naira value.

The rise in the stock of forex reserves had defied mounting pressure from demand and series of interventions through special auctions by the regulator in the last three months.

The last time the reserves were at this level was in the middle of August 2016, with average growth of about 2.8 per cent from the end of October till date.

At $25.78 billion, the reserves recorded about $1 billion increase, or 4.2 per cent rise month-on-month, up from $24.77 billion at the end of November, as marginal rise in the international oil prices and production remained relatively stable.

However, at the same level too, it declined by 11.7 per cent from $29.13 billion as at December 2015, due to fallen price of crude oil, which depleted Nigeria’s forex earnings’ capacity and huge demand by importers.

A combination of exchange rate stability at the interbank market, slight improvement in capital importation and the country’s management of the foreign exchange policy through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have contributed to the assessed reserves’ accretion.

Six months ago, the CBN inaugurated the flexible exchange rate policy as a measure to contain the declining value of the naira, as well as attract forex inflow.

As part of the measure, it also introduced the Forwards Market, where people can buy forex for future use at the current rate.

CBN has so far contracted over $3.8 billion and redeemed the maturing ones, even as it sold about $1 billion at the market last week to clear a backlog of dollar obligations in selected sectors.

The apex bank had recently urged banks to submit their backlog of dollar demand from fuel importers, airlines, raw materials and machinery for manufacturing firms and agricultural chemicals for the special forex intervention.

In November, CBN said it offered real sector operators- manufacturers and other strategic actors in the economy, access to about 7,792 requests for foreign exchange valued at over $867 million through the inter-bank window.

A summary of the forex utilisation for October 2016 indicated that the raw materials sector received the highest allotment, getting access to foreign exchange valued at $355.7 million or 40.99 per cent of the total value of Forex utilisation for the month put at $867.8 million.

The forex reserves have also recorded an increase of $1.46 billion in the last two months, from a low of $23.9 billion in October to $25.36 billion presently.

In the same period in November, the reserves recorded an increase of $589 million, after weeks of consistent and gradual gains, despite demand pressure, bringing it to $24.49 billion, up from $23.91 billion. That was a 2.5 per cent rise.

It also closed up a two-month decline to $247 million, after losing $836 million between September ($24.74) and October ($23.91).

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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