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Nigeria’s Oil Industry Holds Recovery Prospects From 2017

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Brent Oil
  • Nigeria’s Oil Industry Holds Recovery Prospects From 2017

Nigeria’S petroleum industry is still looking promising in the coming year with oil production projected to see a rebound at an average Brent benchmark of $55.00 per barrel in the international market, Business Monitor International, BMI Research, a Fitch rating company said.

This forecast is reinforcing the projections of Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, who indicated a growing output target even beyond traditional benchmark of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd).

These come against the backdrop of ExxonMobil discovery of a potential recoverable resource of between 500million to 1.0 billion barrels of oil at the Owowo field in October this year.

BMI risk analysis and forecasts as well as market research on leading industries and multinational companies are relied upon by corporate bodies, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries.

The research stated that oil production will record an incremental growth for the next three years.

According to the report, “Nigeria’s oil production will come back strongly in 2017 maintaining incremental growth for the next three years.

However, it also indicated that ”post-2019 the outlook is one of decline, with production falling below 2.0million barrels by 2022 due to a lack of investment as multinationals favour low-cost, low-risk projects to the disadvantage of Nigeria.”

The report also noted that while the problems in the Niger Delta are far from resolved, “we are positive about the outcome of the ongoing dialogue between the militant groups, Delta leaders and the Nigerian government.

“However, we note that until negotiations have been concluded, the risks of further attacks remain elevated as militant groups use sabotage to apply pressure to the government and extract favourable terms.”

On the country’s crude trade, it noted that Traders of Nigerian crude have requested that Nigerian grades trade at a discount due to inconsistency of supply.

Reacting to the data from the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, monthly reports, which indicated that Nigeria’s refineries have continued to operate at abysmally low utilisations rates, BMI stated: ”We forecast this to persist until the refineries receive the necessary investment required to improve efficiency.”

However, on gas, the report hinted that consumption has been reversed due to the actions of the Niger Delta Avengers who are succeeding in starving gas power stations of their feedstock. “Our long-term view has turned negative as private investment dries up and infrastructure remains limited.

The BMI stated further: “The security situation in the oil producing Delta has improved since the height of the troubles in 2016; however risks of resurgence remain high and will weigh heavy on future investment.”

It further noted that while there have been some notable reforms to the NNPC, there is still a long way to go in order to create a transparent and profitable company that encourages investment and helps the country reach its hydrocarbon potential.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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