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Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates for this first time in a year, and the second time in a decade. The federal funds rate was raised by 25 basis points from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent as the Federal Reserve was certain the economy is healthy and on the path to full recovery, after data from the labor market showed continued growth and sustained economic expansion at a 3.2 percent rate in the third quarter of the year.

While the slowdown in consumer spending in November has been attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election, the inflation rate pointed to a steady build-up in price pressures and predicted to support further rate hike in 2017.

Also, the committee projection of inflation rate rising to 2 percent in the first half of 2017 as lower oil prices fade and cost of import goods increases — will further boost the prospect for business investment in the US in 2017 through 2018. Again, most experts believe that the Trump economic plan will speed up economic growth and create more jobs, even though global uncertainty is expected to increase as the euro-area strive to strike a balance amid Brexit and political uncertainty.

In the UK, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney left interest rates at a record-low of 0.25 percent, citing the persistent increase in prices of gasoline. This increase boosted inflation rate in October to 1.2 percent, the fastest in two years. Also, since the referendum, import prices continue to rise and surged 15 percent in November to its highest in 5 years, and expected by the apex bank to increase even more as the embattled nation seek to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty in March 2017.

Accordingly, businesses are not creating new jobs, but merely sustaining current positions, hence, the reason unemployment rate remains 4.8 percent and employment plunged by 6,000 in the third quarter, suggesting that businesses are wary of socio-political situation in the UK and its region as the nation face its toughest test in years.

However, retail sales surged 0.2 percent in November, following a series of discount offered on Black Friday. This is projected to continue through December when household spending is usually higher.

In Australia, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent in November, even though 39,300 jobs were created over the month. This was after data showed the economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter for the first time in years, while some experts have said it’s a one-off thing, the overall Australian economic outlook remains shaky ahead of 2017.

Overall, the US economy remains strong and expected to sustain current improvement in the medium term. However, global developments will play a pivotal role in determining the economic direction and how businesses approach it going forward. This week, as we round up the year, NZDUSD and EURGBP top my list.

NZDUSD

I first mentioned this pair sell-potential in May, ever since I have written extensively on the New Zealand economy in relation to the US dollar. However, Last week this pair closed for the first time in 5 months below 0.6989 support level that was first established in July. But this is significant because the price closed below the ascending channel drawn since May when the US dollar was weaker.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

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Economically, the FOMC statement released last week has bolstered the US dollar economic outlook against emerging currencies. This new US dollar attractiveness is likely to continue into 2017 and it is expected to extend current gain against the New Zealand dollar.

So this week, I will be looking to sell NZDUSD below 0.6989 price levels for 0.6771 support as the first target and a sustained break should open up 0.6580.

EURGBP

This pair topped our list three weeks ago, but closed mid-way to our 0.8240 targets last week. Confirming the importance of bearish pin bar of three weeks ago.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

Click to enlarge

While the euro-area is yet to find a permanent solution to its socioeconomic issues, the UK is positive of retaining preferential access to the European Union 500 million consumer market after Brexit.

This coupled with strong consumer spending, low unemployment rate and moderate earnings continue to support the pound sterling over the euro currency for the past 7 weeks. This week, I will be looking to sell this pair below 0.8471 resistance level for 0.8240 targets, a sustained break should open up 0.8117 support as the second target.

Last Week Recap

AUDUSD

Last week, our first target hit at 0.7379, but the pair closed below July low giving a total of 209 pips. This week, I will be looking to capitalize on dollar current attractiveness to sell this pair below 0.7379 for my May 0.7203 projection for Aussie.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

Click to enlarge

NZDCAD

Three weeks ago, I first mentioned the sell opportunity of NZDCAD pair and since then this pair has dropped 207 pips to close below our 0.9298 targets. This week, if the 0.9298 break is sustained I will look to sell this pair for 0.9141 support.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 19-23

Click to enlarge

This is our last Forex Weekly Outlook for 2016. The 2017 global currency outlook will be out in Two weeks.

We wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in Advance.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 13th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

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NAIRA - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 13th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,490.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Wednesday, June 12th, 2024.

This indicates a slight decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,490
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,480

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 12th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Published

on

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 12th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,500 and sold it at ₦1,490 on Thursday, June 6th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,480
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,470

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

Cedi Falls to Record Low Due to Increased Dollar Demand from Importers

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inflation

The Ghanaian cedi has plummeted to a record low of 14.9335 per dollar as the increase in demand for US dollars by companies importing fuel, pharmaceuticals, and other fast-moving consumer goods put pressure on the currency.

This depreciation, observed by the close of trading in Accra, marks the cedi’s lowest level since at least 1994 when Bloomberg began tracking the data.

Since the start of the year, the cedi has declined by 20% against the US dollar, ranking it as the fourth-worst performing currency among approximately 150 tracked globally by Bloomberg, following the Egyptian pound, Nigerian naira, and Lebanese pound.

“Dollar demand from oil importers, the pharmaceuticals industry, and FMCG companies remains strong,” noted Samantha Singh-Jami, Africa Strategist at Rand Merchant Bank. “Although authorities have significantly increased foreign exchange reserves in recent months, there are still constraints on foreign exchange liquidity in the market.”

Ghana’s gross international reserves rose to $6.6 billion in April, the highest in over 19 months, as per data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank has been strategically managing these reserves to ensure sufficient market supply, including directly addressing some companies’ foreign exchange needs to alleviate the pressure on commercial banks.

This increase in reserves follows Ghana’s decision to halt servicing most of its external debt since December 2022.

The move was part of a debt restructuring effort to qualify for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Disbursements from the $3 billion IMF package and inflows from other multilateral and bilateral sources have bolstered the reserves.

However, the cedi’s decline is also attributed to a significant drop in cocoa export revenue, which has diminished foreign exchange supply. Revenue from cocoa shipments fell by 49% to $599 million from January through April.

The country’s cocoa output for the 2023-24 season is projected to be between 422,500 and 425,000 tons, which is only half of the initial estimate.

“The weakening of the cedi seems to reflect foreign exchange flow mismatches,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. “Foreign exchange demand recovered this year, though it has remained broadly constant in recent months, and continues to exceed supply.”

The combination of high demand for dollars by importers and reduced foreign exchange inflows has created a challenging environment for the cedi.

Despite efforts by the central bank to manage the situation, the currency continues to struggle under the weight of these economic pressures.

Economic Outlook

The Ghanaian government and central bank face a tough task in stabilizing the cedi amidst these challenges.

Ensuring adequate foreign exchange liquidity while addressing the structural issues in the economy, such as reliance on imports and fluctuating export revenues, will be crucial in reversing the cedi’s downward trend.

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