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Australia’s Economy Shrinks Most in Eight Years; Currency Slumps

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Australian business confidence
  • Australia’s Economy Shrinks Most in Eight Years; Currency Slumps

While Australia’s economy shrunk last quarter, it’s probably more of a red flag than a precursor to recession.

One of only four quarterly contractions in the past 25 years, the so-called ‘lucky country’ is unlikely to suffer a second consecutive slump — just as in those prior periods. But it’s a wake-up call for lawmakers that recent political timidity and gridlock is unsustainable, as is reliance on monetary policy to support growth with a 1.5 percent interest rate that may not even fall further.

A growing chorus of high-profile economists and international institutions are calling on Australia to follow U.K. and U.S. plans to use infrastructure stimulus, particularly with global borrowing costs so low. But the government has made clear its priority is returning the budget to balance as it seeks to protect a prized AAA credit rating.

Wednesday’s report showed:

  • Gross domestic product fell 0.5% from previous quarter, when it gained a revised 0.6%
  • Decline was driven by slump in construction and government spending
  • Result was worst since depths of global financial crisis at the end of 2008 and well below economists’ estimates of a 0.1% drop
  • The economy grew 1.8% from a year earlier, compared with a forecast 2.2% gain
  • Australian dollar fell almost half a U.S. cent on the data

Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific research at TD Securities Ltd. in Singapore, summed up the general consensus among economists to the contraction.

“We’re still confident that this is just a perfect storm of negatives and we shouldn’t be talking about technical recessions — we should be talking about what rebound we can expect for the fourth quarter,” she said. “It just seemed like an unexpected confluence of negatives that all happened to be concentrated in one quarter.”

But while growth will probably resume given resource export volumes have further to rise, this requires little labor. Meanwhile, a residential building boom that’s employed many ex-miners is forecast by some economists to peak next year, removing a driver of growth and employment. Balancing that is an unwinding of mining investment, which is forecast to soon stop acting as a drag on growth.

What the economy urgently needs is business investment outside mining, which has failed to emerge despite the best efforts of the Reserve Bank of Australia to talk up the economy and via rate cuts. While the government is betting a proposed cut in corporate tax will encourage firms to spend and hire, opposition parties are blocking the passage of the legislation. Outside of this, there’s little on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s agenda.

One region where business investment has been strong is New South Wales, running at 10 percent per annum for the past three years. Coincidentally, that’s the only Australian state undertaking meaningful infrastructure investment.

“Effective public investments can boost GDP over the long term by creating demand, boosting business confidence, lifting growth and ultimately reducing, not increasing, the debt-to-GDP ratio over time,” said Andrew Charlton, director of consultancy AlphaBeta in Sydney. “Australia needs a short term plan to increase spending on infrastructure and other productive public assets, especially while interest rates are so low, and a medium term plan to reign in recurrent spending over time.”

His views echo those put forward by the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Other Details

Wednesday’s GDP report showed that government spending and resource exports failed to lift growth as they did in the previous two quarters. The slowdown from an annual 3.1 percent rate in the second quarter was dramatic, particularly when the Treasury estimates the economy’s potential at 2.75 percent and central bank forecasts match or exceed that level.
The data also showed:

  • Private investment in new buildings cut 0.3 percentage point from GDP
  • New engineering and new and used dwellings shaved 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively
  • The household savings ratio fell to 6.3% from a revised 6.7%, which helped support household spending
  • The terms of trade, a gauge of export prices relative to import prices, jumped 4.5%
  • Household spending rose 0.4% and added 0.3 point

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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Energy

Presidency Set to Roll Out 2,700 CNG-Powered Vehicles Ahead of Tinubu’s Anniversary

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In a significant move toward a greener and more sustainable future for Nigeria’s transportation sector, the Presidency has announced plans to launch approximately 2,700 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered buses and tricycles before May 29, President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office.

The ambitious initiative, spearheaded by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, aims to address pressing issues of rising fuel costs, environmental pollution, and the need for more efficient mass transit options across the country.

With the impending rollout, Nigeria is poised to take significant strides towards joining the league of nations that have embraced CNG as a viable alternative fuel source for public transportation.

The move comes as part of the Presidential CNG Initiative, launched by President Tinubu in October 2023, shortly after the removal of petrol subsidy.

The Presidential CNG Initiative, designed to deliver cheaper, safer, and more climate-friendly energy options, has been allocated a substantial budget of N100 billion from the palliative budget.

This funding will support the purchase of 5,500 CNG vehicles, including buses and tricycles, along with 100 electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits.

Also, the initiative encompasses the development of CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide, ensuring that the infrastructure is in place to support the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Mr. Onanuga emphasized that all necessary preparations have been made for the delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration.

Approximately 2,500 tricycles are expected to be ready before May 29, 2024, with plans to deliver 200 units of buses within the same timeframe.

The deployment of CNG buses and tricycles marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s energy transition journey.

It not only reduces the country’s dependence on traditional fossil fuels but also contributes to mitigating environmental pollution and improving air quality in urban centers.

In addition to the rollout of CNG vehicles, the initiative includes partnerships with the private sector to establish conversion workshops and refueling sites across 18 states before the end of 2024.

These efforts underscore the collaborative approach taken by the government and industry stakeholders to facilitate the adoption of CNG technology and drive sustainable growth in the transportation sector.

As Nigeria prepares to celebrate President Tinubu’s first year in office, the rollout of 2,700 CNG-powered vehicles stands as a testament to the government’s commitment to fostering innovation, promoting environmental stewardship, and improving the lives of its citizens through transformative initiatives in the energy sector.

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